Could Nick Castellanos Find His Way to Kansas City? – Royals

In some interesting news on Wednesday, with most teams beginning their first workouts with pitchers and catchers, the Philadelphia Phillies appear ready to move on from outfielder Nick Castellanos. In fact, Phillies beat writer Matt Gelb reported that they have essentially made it clear to Castellanos that he will not have a locker in Spring Training, thus signaling the end of his tenure in Philadelphia.

Castellanos has had a polarizing career with the Phillies, marked by some poignant highs and lows. The former Tigers draft pick signed a five-year, $100 million deal with Philadelphia prior to the 2022 season and hit 82 home runs in his four seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. That said, he had only two seasons with wRC+ marks over 100 with the Phillies (2023 and 2024), and his accumulated fWAR was 0.7 in 602 games.

Considering the money the Phillies had poured into him back in 2022, it’s safe to say that his tenure with the club has been a major disappointment.

Last year seemed to be the culmination of Castellanos’ multi-year disappointment in Philadelphia. In 589 plate appearances, he hit 17 home runs, collected 72 RBI, posted a .300 wOBA, and -0.6 fWAR. Not only was his fWAR a career low, but his wOBA was his worst mark in that category since his 11-game rookie sample with the Tigers as a 21-year-old in 2013. 

To make matters worse, his Statcast profile was meager for a “power” hitter in 2025. As illustrated in his TJ Stats summary, many of his categories, especially exit velocity and barrel rate, were under the 40th percentile. That is a sign that Castellanos is near the end of his career, if not already there. 

Thus, does Castellanos make sense for any team right now, let alone the Royals? Well, let’s look at his overall profile, especially from a batted-ball end, and what he could bring the Royals if GM JJ Picollo decides to take a flier on the former Tigers star. 

Declining Hard-Hit Rates and Bat Speed a Concern

When it comes to Castellanos’ value, all of it is pretty tied to the bat at this point in his career. Since 2017, he’s been below league average by double digits in Fangraphs’ Def every season with the exception of 2020 (and that was due to the 60-game COVID-shortened season). In terms of BsR, which measures baserunning runs, he’s been 9.9 runs BELOW average since 2022. 

Unfortunately, the 33-year-old outfielder just doesn’t do anything with the glove or on the bases, and it’s unlikely that it’s going to get better in 2024, wherever he should play. 

Castellanos’ bat is so key to his value as an MLB player, but unfortunately, he’s trending in the wrong direction in some key categories. Two of those categories are hard-hit rate and bat speed. 

In terms of hard-hit rate, he posted a 36.1% hard-hit rate last season, which ranked in the 16th percentile. That was worse than his average exit velocity (23rd percentile), max exit velocity (33rd percentile), and barrel percentage (36th percentile). While Castellanos did a good job of launching the ball (92nd percentile LA Sweet-Spot%) and swinging at pitches in the zone (99th percentile), his poor performance in other Statcast metrics weighed down his overall production. That is evident in his lackluster average (.250), OPS (.694), ISO (.150), and wRC+ (90) last season. 

Hard-hit rate sticks out the most, however, because if Castellanos isn’t hitting the ball hard, it doesn’t matter how well he launches the ball. Well-launched, but soft-hit balls will just become flyouts, especially at Kauffman Stadium, even with the new dimensions (which will still be more pitcher-friendly than Citizens Bank Ballpark, which was the fourth most HR-friendly ballpark in baseball last year, according to Statcast park factors). 

When looking at his rolling hard-hit chart over his career, he’s not only performed poorly in hard-hit rate last year, but also showed that downward trend last year as well.

After a brutal finish to 2022, where he hovered around the 30 percent mark in hard-hit rate, he did bounce back in 2023, touching the 50% mark at one point. However, since his 3,500th batted ball, he saw a gradual decline in his hard-hit rate through the 2024 season. There was a slight bump at the start of the 2025 season, but it dropped dramatically by the 4,200th batted ball. 

What is causing this decline in the hard-hit rate for Castellanos? His decline in bat speed could be the explanation. Though there isn’t a ton of data on Statcast bat speed, his rolling chart in this category shows a stark regression from 2024 to 2025.

For most of 2023 and 2024, Castellanos was demonstrating above-average bat speed. Unfortunately, in 2025, his bat speed stayed below the league average for most of the season. That bat speed could explain his lackluster hard-hit and squared-up rates (24th percentile in squared-up rate), and thus, underwhelming production in his final season in Philadelphia.

To bring it all together, let’s take a look at his rolling xwOBA chart via Statcast. The xwOBA metric tends to give a better predictor of future success than wOBA. 

Much like his hard-hit rate and bat speed, the xwOBA trend isn’t good. Not only did he hit some bad lows in 2025, but he showed that “dip” trend in all four of his seasons in Philadelphia. He likely was able to overcome those poor xwOBA marks at times because of the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank. 

That said, it’s likely that those xwOBA valleys would only amplify Castellanos’ struggles in Kansas City or another more pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Why Would the Royals Consider Castellanos?

Castellanos has limited defensive flexibility, and he chases a lot, as his 40.9% O-Swing% ranked in the bottom third percentile. Defensive versatility and plate discipline are two areas that the Royals have valued this offseason, based on their acquisitions (Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas). Thus, it doesn’t seem like Castellanos would fit the Royals’ philosophy for 2026.

On the other hand, the 33-year-old has historically hit lefties well, and his spray-and-pray approach, despite the hard-hit issues, could translate to Kauffman Stadium for one season. 

In terms of splits, Castellanos has an .815 OPS, .215 ISO, and 127 wRC+ against lefties over his career. Against righties? He has a career .762 OPS, .185 ISO, and 103 wRC+. The Royals’ projected right-handed bats off the bench are Thomas, Tyler Tolbert, and Nick Loftin. Thomas is a nice platoon outfielder for now, but he may get more regular playing time, especially if he gets off to a hot start and if Kyle Isbel and his bat stagnate in 2026. Loftin has plate discipline, but little else on the offensive end. Lastly, Tolbert may be more of a pinch-running option and late-inning defensive replacement than a real weapon at the plate. 

Thus, he could be a nice platoon player who could rotate between RF and DH against left-handed starters without hurting the lineup by playing every day. At this point in his career, any kind of playing time would be appreciated, and he could see more value in being a mentor to a young hitter like Jac Caglianone, whom he could platoon with in 2026. 

Another positive impact with Castellanos is that the spray chart didn’t fare as badly at Kauffman as I initially imagined. Castellanos was able to pull a lot of balls in the air, and that profile fit the K well in the past, as illustrated in Castellanos’ spray chart, applied to Kauffman Stadium dimensions. 

Only one of Castellanos’ home runs would’ve not gone out last year at Kauffman, and he could’ve had two or three more as well. With the dimensions getting even friendlier at the K in 2026, Castellanos could see even more production, especially on the balls he’s able to launch effectively.

There’s no question that Castellanos isn’t quite the player that he used to be, and that was evident down the stretch in 2025 as he saw his playing time wane. That decrease in plate appearances seemed to strain the relationship between Castellanos and his manager, Rob Thomson. That tension could’ve contributed to his mediocre performance in 2025.

My guess is that Castellanos will want a fresh start and be more willing to have a complementary role if it means he gets to be on a winner with playoff chances. The Royals fit that bill for Castellanos, especially with PECOTA projecting Kansas City to have the best record in the AL Central.

Thus, the decision to acquire Castellanos, who likely won’t cost much, whether it’s through a trade or free agency, may rest on Picollo and how he sees this roster. Does Castellanos give the Royals a veteran presence and carry some power upside? Absolutely, and he’s been known to mash at Kauffman, especially during his days with Detroit. 

Conversely, he’s limited defensively, and he could cause some logjams in the outfield, especially in right field. Messing up Caglianone, who could be part of the Royals’ long-term core along with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, and possibly, Carter Jensen, doesn’t seem like the most prudent strategy.

A decision on Castellanos will be made in the next day or so. I guess we will see if Picollo thinks Castellanos could be the boost they need, or passes on him for simply being another Hunter Renfroe who fails to see his skills translate in Kansas City (much to their chagrin).