Before every season, I like to write up the findings of some of the various projection systems. Before every season, there are a few of you who don’t like this. “Who cares?” and “Get to what actually matters” are a couple of the common refrains, and I hear you. So before we get into all of this, I’d like to satisfy both camps.
First, here’s a picture showing what went on in camp earlier this week, courtesy of the San Francisco Giants:
Ryan Walker slings a pitch during his bullpen session. (Suzanna Mitchell / San Francisco Giants / Getty Images)
Yessir, that’s a pic of Ryan Walker in the bullpen, and he’s throwing … actually I don’t know which direction he’s throwing. With most pitchers you can figure it out from the angle, but with Walker, you start getting into some MC Escher stuff.
The point being, that’s the story of the Giants right now. They’re getting reps, getting stronger, shaking the rust off, and while it’s still not unthinkable that the front office surprises us all and makes another transaction, this is almost certainly the team you should get used to. There’s not much more to say about it.
So, let’s look at some nerd numbers.
Here are a few scattered thoughts on the PECOTA projections over at Baseball Prospectus (subscription encouraged):
You’ll never believe it, but the Giants are projected to be around .500
Oh, wait. You actually can believe that? Weird.
(That’s not quite as bad as it sounds)
I’m not going to throw dandruff on you and tell you that it’s snowing, but the Giants’ projected 81.4 wins (with a 1-percent chance of winning the NL West), is tied for the sixth-best record in the National League. If that were to hold, the Giants would be one of the NL’s wild-card teams. Or, technically, it would put them in position to be the last postseason qualifier, assuming they won a tiebreaker. You can hear the roar of the crowd already.
This is because projection systems hate bold predictions. They’re set up to know there’s a chance for Bryce Eldridge to hit 30 homers and win Rookie of the Year, but they’re focused on the boring ol’, middle-of-the-road likeliest projections. The 26-year-old gets a little better in his second season in the majors, perhaps, and the 36-year-old’s projections take a hit, but more than anything else, they’re focused on what they already know.
(Just kidding, it’s exactly as bad as it sounds)
Here we are again, in the squishy middle, where every win or loss matters about a billion times more than it does to the teams at the top of the heap. The Dodgers don’t have to sweat the regular season. They tell their hurt pitchers to take their sweet, sweet time, so long as they’re ready by October. Signing Chris Bassitt to the deal he got with the Orioles, for example, doesn’t make as much sense for them. They wouldn’t need him in the postseason rotation unless something really went wrong.
The Giants sure could have used Bassitt, though. Would he have been the third starter? The fifth starter? The hybrid starter who lives in the bullpen (please poke air holes)? The answer is yes to all of the above. But it’s hard to say that it would have dramatically raised the ceiling of the roster. It would have just put some load-bearing joists under the floor.
It would have been even more helpful for these preseason projections if the Giants had gotten an expensive, tried-and-true pitcher like Ranger Suárez, but it still wouldn’t have been enough for them to feel comfortable in the NL race. (Baseball Prospectus also has an article highlighting the teams for whom this would apply, and the Giants are prominently featured.)
My best guess is that the Giants want to get to the trade deadline without leaking too much oil. They’ll have a much better idea in July of the relievers who are throwing well and missing bats, as well as the pitchers who could make the rotation instantly and unequivocally better, without costing nine figures and/or a draft pick. It’s at the risk of losing some games earlier in the season, but if they are still in contention midseason, they’ll have a clearer picture for how they can improve.
Zac Gallen is still available, though. To be very, very clear. The Giants aren’t going to sign him, but all he would take is money, a draft pick and some international bonus money. You’ve got a few bucks on you, right?
Patrick Bailey got his own article
It’s one I’ve wanted to write, but delayed because I wasn’t confident enough in my number wrangling. So here’s someone who can describe the conundrum better than me: Patrick Bailey’s framing will still increase his value by quite a bit, but we don’t know just how much of a hit he’ll take with the new ABS challenge system.
As of right now, Bailey is projected to have one of the greatest defensive seasons of all-time. No, truly, these numbers (and the ones he’s actually accumulated in previous seasons) turn him into something like the Ozzie Smith of catchers, where he’s so much better than the runner-up that he’s in his own category. Even if he loses a chunk of that value, he’s still near the top.
My lukewarm-est take is that Bailey’s defensive numbers will stabilize, and he isn’t an all-time defensive god this season, but that his offensive numbers will stabilize, and he’ll hit like a typical catcher, not one of the very worst hitters in the majors. For now, though, he’s still wildly valuable in these projections, even if that value comes with a bigger disclaimer than most.
The lineup is the obvious strength of the team
This is both offense and defense, but the Giants’ defensive extremes will even out, so it’s a decent proxy for team lineup strength. The Giants aren’t an elite offensive team, but they’re comfortably in the top third:
Projected position player WARP
Apologies if I’m easily impressed, but the Giants keeping company with the Blue Jays and Phillies isn’t something that I expected. They even have the second-best offense in the division, above the Padres and Diamondbacks.
As for the team with the best lineup in the division, about that …
The Dodgers still exist
Forget about them. They’re gone. Focus on the rest of the National League. You can get excited about a 2021-style surprise if the Giants are 10 games up in May, but only then.
The Dodgers are like someone you knew before they got famous, a kid from your high school or a cousin from another state who you saw around the holidays. Now they’re not just famous: They’re super-famous. They’re Taylor Swift/Leo Messi levels of famous.
What are you going to do, text them about your day? “ugh toilet backed up again, think were have to snkae the main.” Yeah, they don’t live in your world anymore. They just buy a new house because it’s easier than getting a new toilet. Focus on the normal people around you.
And if another 2021 happens — it was the biggest projection miss, by a lot, on record for PECOTA — that’s what makes it so special and fun.
Just know that another 2021 isn’t going to happen. Unless it does. All we can do until it doesn’t happen, though, is wonder what the 2026 will hold for the Giants. Turns out they’re projected for .500. Can you believe such a thing?
Right, right. We’ve been over this. You can believe it. It certainly could be worse, though. And the marketing team doesn’t even have to credit me if they want to use that. The 2026 Giants: It certainly could be worse.