It starts with All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, coming off a 45-homer season in his age-22 campaign. Caminero pairs elite bat speed (78.5 mph, 100th percentile) with strong bat-to-ball ability (83% zone contact, 76% overall contact), allowing his prodigious minor-league power to translate against major league velocity. Caminero punished heaters in 2025, posting a gaudy 65.1% hard-hit rate against four-seam fastballs. When he elevates, the ball leaves. His 24.6% HR/FB rate in 2025 underscores how his raw power translates to games in a major way.
And yet, there is another level available. Caminero’s relatively flat path led to a 47% groundball rate, slightly muting the offensive efficiency his raw power should unlock. His 6.3% walk rate and 32.2% chase rate hint at approach refinement still to come. Despite 45 home runs, he finished with a 129 wRC+. For a player with this kind of thunder, 29% above league average almost feels conservative. Even now, he profiles as a top-five third baseman in baseball — third at the position for us at Just Baseball. If the swing decisions sharpen, the ceiling expands dramatically.
Jonathan Aranda offers a different form of impact. Long an analytics favorite, Aranda elevates at an above-average rate (37% groundball rate), hits the ball hard (54.5% hard-hit rate), and does so at ideal angles, including a 24.5% air-pull rate. In 106 games — a career high — he posted a 146 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR. On a per-plate appearance basis, he was one of the American League’s most efficient bats.
The question is durability. If Aranda pushes toward 550 plate appearances, the Rays have a legitimate middle-of-the-order anchor. If availability again becomes an issue, the lineup thins quickly.
Chandler Simpson rounds out the trio and could not be more stylistically different. First percentile in bat speed and hard-hit rate, Simpson derives value through contact and speed rather than impact. He swiped 44 bases in 109 games and posted a 92.5% zone contact rate, placing him among the league’s elite bat-to-ball hitters. The blueprint resembles that of Steven Kwan: relentless contact, constant pressure, and table-setting consistency.
For Simpson, refinement will determine the ceiling. His swing rate ticked up four percentage points in the majors compared to Triple-A, and despite elite speed, his defensive impact has not yet fully matched the athleticism. If those elements improve, he becomes more than a role player — he becomes a foundational piece.
The Gauntlet Returns
Context, however, is unforgiving.
The AL East is once again a gauntlet. Three teams reached the postseason a year ago, and the one that missed — Baltimore — responded aggressively by adding Pete Alonso and trading for Shane Baz. The Baz deal returned a significant prospect package to Tampa Bay, including a Competitive Balance Round A pick that further inflates their league-high draft bonus pool. Long-term, it strengthens a deep Tampa Bay farm system that is among baseball’s best. However for 2026, trading Baz undeniably weakens their rotation.