CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Guardians’ pitchers and catchers went through their first official workout of spring training Thursday at their facility in Goodyear, Arizona.
Position players are scheduled to report Sunday — although many of them are already in camp — with the first full-squad workout scheduled for Tuesday.
All of which means it’s time to predict how the five teams in the AL Central will do this season based on what they’ve done to improve or regress over the winter.
The teams will be ranked from fifth place to first place.
Will Venable is in his second year or managing the White Sox.AP5. White Sox.
Last year: 60-102, fifth place
Manager: Will Venable, second year.
PECOTA, FanGraphs predictions for 2026: Fifth at 69-93 and fifth at 67.5-94.5.
One-on-one: Guardians went 11-2 vs. White Sox last year.
The skinny: The White Sox have averaged 108 losses per season over the last three years, but they just may break that pattern this year. They’ve added Erick Fedde, Seranthony Dominguez and Anthony Kay to the pitching staff. They signed Japanese first baseman Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal and outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year, $6 million deal after trading Luis Robert Jr., another outfielder, and his $20 million salary to the Mets.
Fun fact: The White Sox won the MLB draft lottery at the winter meetings, gaining the first overall pick this year.
Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is one of the few Twins who wasn’t traded last season.AP4. Twins
Last year: 70-92, fourth place.
Manager: Derek Shelton, first year.
PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Third at 78.8-83.2 and third at 79.7-83.3.
One-on-one: Guardians went 9-4 vs. the Twins last year.
The skinny: It’s hard to get a handle on what the Twins are doing. At the deadline last year, they traded 10 players and it looked like they were headed for a big rebuild. However, Derek Falvey, team president and the man leading the rebuild, left the organization at the end of January. While Falvey was leaning into a rebuild, Tom Pohlad, the team’s control person, felt the team could contend in 2026. The Twins have added free agents in first baseman Josh Bell, catcher Victor Caratini and reliever Taylor Rogers. They also acquired lefty Anthony Banda from the Dodgers.
Fun fact: Shelton, former Cleveland hitting coach, returns to manage the Twins after five seasons managing the Pirates. Before taking the Pirates job, he was the Twins bench coach.
Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. could use a little help from his teammates when it comes to scoring runs in 2026.AP3. Royals
Last year: 82-80, third.
Manager: Matt Quatraro, fourth season.
PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: First at 85.5-76.5 and second at 81-81.
One-on-one: Guardians went 8-5 against the Royals last year.
The skinny: The Royals just might win the AL Central if their rotation of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic and Michael Wacha can avoid last year’s injuries and their offense improves. Their offensive production from the outfield was poor last year so they sent valuable lefty Angel Zerpa to the Brewers for outfielder Isaac Collins and right-hander Nick Means. Then they signed Lane Thomas, who spent two injury-filled years with the Guardians. If power-hitting Jac Caglianone can recover from his shaky big-league debut last year that would be an added boost. The Royals have depth in the pen, especially at the back end with closer Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg, which should ease the pain of losing Zerpa.
Fun fact: Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., starting his fifth season, has led the big leagues in hits for the last two years with 211 in 2024 and 184 in 2025.
The Guardians are going to need offensive help this season from untested players such as George Valera.John Kuntz, cleveland.com2. Guardians
Last year: 88-74, first.
Manager: Stephen Vogt, third season.
PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Fourth at 75.3-86.7 and fourth at 75.6-86.4.
One-on-one: Guardians went 36-16 vs. the AL Central last year.
The skinny: Preseason projections are not treating the defending AL Central champs kindly, mostly because they did so little this winter to help one of the worst offenses in baseball last year. But have they really taken a 13-game tumble from 88 to 75 victories as PECOTA and FanGraphs project? The only counter the front office has is if untested players such as Chase DeLauter, George Valera, CJ Kayfus and others can lend a hand to Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan to awaken this offense. If not, it won’t matter how many arms the Guardians added to the bullpen this winter — and it was a lot — because they’re going to struggle. No doubt the rotation is strong, but a team has to score to win, even one that rallied from a 15-1/2 game deficit last year.
Fun fact: Last year the Guardians went 50-33 in games decided by two or fewer runs.
Left-hander Tarik Skubal will be sitting atop an impressive starting rotation for the Tigers in 2026.Getty Images1. Tigers
Last year: 87-75, second.
Manager: A.J. Hinch, sixth season.
PECOTA, FanGraphs projections for 2026: Second at 83.1-78.9 and first at 85.7-76.3
One-on-one: The Guardians went 8-5 against the Tigers last year.
The skinny: After a nine-year drought, the Tigers have gone to the postseason for the last two seasons. It feels like they’re determined to make it three straight seasons based on what they did this offseason. Yes, Tarik Skubal won a historic $32 million arbitration contract for 2026, but that didn’t stop Detroit from signing lefty Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal and bringing home Justin Verlander on a one-year, $13 million deal. It gives Hinch a rotation of Skubal, the two-time Cy Young winner, Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Verlander. It also makes up for the loss of Reese Olson, who will miss the season with right shoulder surgery. In the bullpen they added closer Kenley Jansen, while second baseman Gleyber Torres decided to stay in the Motor City by accepting the qualifying offer.
Fun fact: The Guardians and Tigers played each other 16 times last season, including the three-game wild card series. Ten of the 16 games were decided by three or fewer runs.