There are a bunch of new faces that fans can’t wait to see take the field in 2026. All have a chance to make big impacts for the New York Mets and hopefully change their fortunes after a trying 2025 campaign.

It’s unsurprising that Bo Bichette would rank at the top of the list in terms of projected WAR for 2026. Some have compared his move to the hot corner to Alex Rodriguez’s shift to third base when the three-time MVP was traded to the New York Yankees 22 years ago. While prime A-Rod is an unfair comparison for any player, that should tell you the kind of impact Bichette will likely have, regardless of having to learn a new position.

But who is the new Met who is the second most likely to produce the highest WAR? There is no shortage of candidates, but one would think that Freddy Peralta would be the best bet. The 29-year-old is one of the best pitchers in the game, fills the huge hole atop New York’s rotation, and is coming off arguably the best year of his career.

If that was your guess, sorry to tell you, you’re wrong. Per FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, the new Met projected for the highest WAR after Bichette is… Marcus Semien.

Marcus Semien surprisingly outranks Freddy Peralta and the rest of the New York Mets’ additions for the second-most projected WAR after Bo Bichette

Comparing the value a top-of-the-rotation starter brings against a starting-caliber second baseman isn’t a direct apples-to-oranges comparison. Nonetheless, it is interesting that the same projection system that is predicting Semien to hit worse than Jared Young in 2026 believes that the former Texas Ranger will provide more value than Peralta.

But here we are with Semien projected to produce 3.1 WAR versus 2.7 for Peralta. There are a few reasons why the algorithm came to this stunning conclusion.

For one, projections are fun to look at and can provide us with a guidepost, but they should not be treated as gospel. Part of the issue is that they are only as good as their inputs. Semien has historically been a very durable player who hits high in the lineup, leading to the 35-year-old being projected to lead the club in plate appearances this year.

Since WAR is a cumulative stat, those extra trips to the plate matter and allow Semien to pad his value in the simulations. But the likelihood of him actually leading the club in plate appearances is very low. In Queens, he’ll be batting towards the bottom of the lineup, which will result in significantly fewer opportunities. Therefore, unless Semien’s offense rebounds, he’ll have a hard time registering a WAR that’s that high.

On the positive side, he’s a Gold Glove defender, and Steamer doesn’t see that falling off. On top of that, it is calling for something of an offensive bounce-back. The system is predicting 22 homers for the veteran after he hit just 15 last year, while also calling for a 103 wRC+ that would be a marked improvement over 2025’s result of 89.

This also says something about Peralta. The right-hander is projected to see his ERA rise from 2.70 to 3.80. Steamer sees his strikeouts falling, posting below 10 K/9 for the first time since 2022. In addition, Steamer doesn’t buy into his home run reduction last year and is predicting that his HR/9 will rise from 1.07 to 1.20. That’s because Peralta posted marks of 1.35 and 1.41 in 2024 and 2023, respectively. That’s an important concern that shouldn’t be overlooked.

At the end of the day, this should have us looking at the value Semien offers more favorably, while tempering expectations and a smidge for Peralta. It’s not likely that Semien winds up being the more valuable player in 2026, but given his skills, it can’t be ruled out. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, either.