Otto López is already one of the better Miami Marlins waiver claims of the past decade, and certainly of the Peter Bendix era. In less than two full seasons since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, he has posted 4.8 fWAR—that’s tied with Xavier Edwards for the most total value of any Marlins player.

Looking into Lopez further, I believe there is the potential for a breakout in 2026. 

The data shows his underlying skills are improving. From 2024 to 2025, Lopez increased his bat speed, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate while decreasing his chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. The combination of hitting balls harder without compromising his approach is very encouraging. 

Stat

2025

+/-

2024

BA

.246

-.024

.270

xBA

.269

-.003

.272

SLG

.368

-.009

.377

xSLG

.434

+.032

.402

wOBA

.295

-.007

.302

xwOBA

.330

+.013

.317

Hard Hit %

38.3

-0.6

38.9

Avg Exit Velocity

88.5

+0.5

88.0

Launch Angle Sweet-Spot %

32.5

+2.1

30.4

Barrel %

7.1

+2.0

5.1

Avg Launch Angle

8.4

+3.0

5.4

In Zone %

50.5

0.0

50.5

Out of Zone %

49.5

0.0

49.5

Out of Zone Swing %

29.5

-2.5

32.0

Whiff %

18.9

-3.0

21.0

First Strike %

62.0

-3.0

65.0

First Pitch Swing %

24.0

-5.0

29.0

Swing %

46.3

-5.1

51.4

K%

13.8

-3.5

17.3

BB%

7.4

+1.6

5.8

 

So why didn’t this improvement translate to more production in 2025? Lopez’s OPS actually dropped from the year before. That largely comes down to poor luck on balls in play, specifically at loanDepot park. 

In 2025 at home, Lopez posted a .627 OPS and 73 wRC+, compared to a .714 OPS and 98 wRC+ on the road, with a 31-point gap in BABIP. This was the opposite of 2024, when he performed better at home than on the road. Strange as well is that Lopez increased his pulled fly ball rate and FB% in general. All this points to him having sharply underperformed for reasons beyond his control.

As an example, this hard contact of 108.2 mph off the bat of Lopez with a launch angle of 14 degrees had a 74% chance of being a hit. It’s expected slugging percentage was north of 1.000 because of the high likelihood it would’ve been a double or triple had it found grass. A good read by Boston’s Ceddanne Rafaela turned it into an out. 

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Lopez underperformed his xSLG last season against every category of pitch (min. 100 pitches). 

The 27-year-old could benefit from lifting the ball more, as he still has a ground ball rate above league average. He also has a vulnerability to changeups, producing a .132 AVG .176 SLG, and .158 wOBA against the pitch. Lefties will continue attacking him with them until those results flip.

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 Considering how well Lopez fairs vs. fastballs, I would wager the poor results vs. changeups are a byproduct of selling out for fastballs, rather than him not being able to read offspeed stuff.

Besides the likely improvements on the hitting side, Lopez showed the Marlins organization he could stick at shortstop. After swapping positions with Xavier Edwards, he put up plus-four outs above average and plus-seven defensive runs saved. Speaking with Fish On First at Marlins Media Day last Friday, Lopez said that his first step and the accuracy of his throws were areas he focused on improving during his offseason training.

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If Otto Lopez has luck on his side as I predict for 2026, with a full healthy season and great defense, he will find himself as a top-10 MLB shortstop. The last time a Marlins shortstop finished that highly in fWAR? Adeiny Hechavarría in 2015.