So … what’s new?

Players have begun reporting to spring training, which you may have taken as your cue to tune into Fantasy Baseball again. What you need, then, is a proper primer, one that summarizes the biggest debates happening within the space. I’ve reduced it to these 25. 

It’s meant to be quick and dirty — just a brief overview, complete with my perspective — but any time you’re working with 25 of something, it can run long. If you take the time to pore over it, though, you’ll come out with a much better view of the landscape than you had coming in.

1) Which version of Pete Crow-Armstrong and James Wood is the real one?

Here are two outfielders of a similar stature and similar stage of development whose first full major-league season followed a similar trajectory. By that, I mean they were breakout stars in the first half and colossal disappointments in the second half.

There were warning signs for each, namely Crow-Armstrong’s poor plate discipline and Wood’s poor launch angle, but we mostly took their breakthroughs at face value, given their former top prospect standing. Their full-season numbers were still excellent, in spite of the steep drop-off, so the prevailing approach is to target them in Round 3 and hope for the best. That seems like the right time to do it, just after the truly elite hitters are all off the board, but I’d prefer for somebody else to.

2) Is Spencer Strider salvageable?

Strider’s first season back from his latest elbow ligament surgery (the internal bracing one, not full-blown Tommy John) couldn’t have gone much worse, yielding a 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, along with some of the highest exit velocity readings for any pitcher. Normally, when a pitcher coming off an injury loses a couple miles per hour and much of the carry on his fastball, we’d say he’s cooked, but you’ll notice from Strider’s ADP (28th among starting pitchers, according to FantasyPros) that not a lot of people are saying that.

It could just be wishcasting — he had a historic strikeout season prior to the elbow trouble and was regarded as the top pitcher in Fantasy — but I think there’s more to it than that. His slider still registered as a wipeout pitch, his 13.9 percent swinging-strike would have ranked seventh among qualifiers, and he had a nine-start stretch midseason with a 2.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9. I suspect his struggles were more mechanical than physical, and given his history as a self-made pitcher and reputation as an intense competitor, you have to figure he hit the lab hard this offseason.

3) Can Ben Rice live up to the hype?

Lord knows there’s no shortage of hype. It’s reached the point where he was recently drafted 13th overall in an NFBC league, and his ADP there over the past few weeks is inside the top 50 — ahead of early-round mainstays like Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Mookie Betts, and Rafael Devers.

I never like to pay for a player’s best-case outcome before it actually happens, but Rice’s best-case outcome is genuinely that high. For as good as he was last year, he was one of the biggest underachievers according to Statcast, which pegged him for a .283 batting average (94th percentile) and .557 lugging percentage (97th percentile). Normally, when a hitter underperforms his expected stats, it’s because of a poor pull-air rate, but Rice’s is well in the red at 25.2 percent, which should pay off especially well for a left-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium. If he’s truly an everyday player, as the Yankees have been hinting throughout the offseason, then he may well place behind only Cal Raleigh at the weakest position where he’s eligible. But if your league is anything like the NFBC, you’re giving up some serious capital to make that bet.

4) What’s a realistic outcome for Cal Raleigh?

Conversations framed around whether Raleigh will repeat his historic 60-homer performance are pointless. Of course, he won’t. That’s what makes it historic. The more useful question is whether the amount he gives back will still justify a second-round price tag, but nobody’s asking it because it’s impossible to answer. Does he regress all the way to being the 30-homer catcher he was previously — still valuable, but more befitting of being a middle-round pick at a loaded position? To me, that’s nearly as improbable as another 60-homer campaign, but where in between those two thresholds will he fall? Splitting the difference at 45 would be good enough — he’d basically be Kyle Schwarber at that point, only with catcher ability — but I didn’t come about that number through great mathematical rigor. It’s anybody’s hunch, really, but a midpoint outcome would seem more likely than either endpoint.

5) What will Geraldo Perdomo do as a follow-up?

The biggest surprise of 2025 went from widely undrafted to top-20 player in Rotisserie leagues, with standout production in all five categories. And that wasn’t even his best format. Thanks in large part to having more walks than strikeouts, Perdomo was the ninth-best player in Head-to-Head points leagues.

Can it continue? Well, his 16th percentile average exit velocity raises some doubts. His expected stats weren’t so far off from his actual ones, though, led by his 91st percentile xBA and 86th percentile xwOBA, so by the data, he wasn’t some glaring overachiever. And while early on, a drop-off seemed inevitable, he only got better over the course of the season, slashing .325/.317/.533 in the second half. A step back seems more likely than not, just given how unprecedented it all was, but it’s also been priced in already, seeing as he’s drafted outside of the top 60 on average.

6) How far should Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor slide?

They had barely arrived in spring training when word came out about their broken hamate bones, and with that, these perennial first-rounders are likely to slip to the end of Round 2. Is that far enough? Well, surgery adds clarity. They’ve been given a timeline of 4-6 weeks, which means if they’re not back by opening day, it won’t be long after that. But as Jeff Passan sums up here, recovering from hamate surgery can have lingering effects:

It isn’t a certainty. Some hitters have come back from a broken hamate bone right as rain. But I’m going to feel a bit defeated if I have to use my second round pick on either of these guys, recognizing that it puts a cloud over my team’s future. If they fall any further, though, gimme gimme.

7) Which of the many rumored prospects will actually make the opening day roster?

It’s so many, you guys. Among prospects ranked in my top 100, Konnor Griffin (1), Kevin McGonigle (2), JJ Wetherholt (4), Carson Benge (9), Colt Emerson (10), Andrew Painter (26), Ryan Waldschmidt (31), Owen Caissie (34), Robby Snelling (37), Justin Crawford (48), Harry Ford (66) and Charlie Condon (74) are all reportedly in the mix for a roster spot. And that’s not even counting the prospects who made a strong enough impression last year that we presume they already have the job — guys like Samuel Basallo (7), Bubba Chandler (8), Bryce Eldridge (11), Trey Yesavage (12), Nolan McLean (13), Sal Stewart (21), Moises Ballesteros (33), Dylan Beavers (61) and Connelly Early (81).

Among the first group, Wetherholt, Benge, Caissie, and Crawford seem to be the most likely to claim a job, given how far they’ve advanced in the minors and the roster spot their respective teams have left open, so they’ve begun to creep up my rankings. The sheer number of viable prospect targets is so high right now, though, that it’s difficult to zero in on any one, which could make for incredible value if you happen to hit on the right one. Spring training will obviously serve to sort this out, but for now, it’s a speculative mess.

8) Is Nick Kurtz everything he seems?

Kurtz’s rookie season was an all-timer in which he set a record for total bases during a four-homer game in Houston on July 25 and homered at a rate that projects to 50 over a 162-game season. It’s all come so easily since the day he was drafted fourth overall (he spent a grand total of 33 games in the minors) that you might believe nothing could bring him down, and his second-round ADP clearly subscribes to this thinking. 

But his 30.9 strikeout rate makes for a bigger red flag than it’s given credit for. Only four qualifying batters had a strikeout rate higher than that last year, and none batted higher than .256. Looking back, I can’t find a single qualifying batter who batted .290 or better with a strikeout rate as high as 30 percent, even. My hunch — again, given how easily everything has come to him so far — is that Kurtz’s strikeout rate itself will change for the better before he suffers steep regression in other areas, but opinions vary.

9) How will the return to Tropicana Field impact Junior Caminero?

Yes, the Yankees’ spring training facility, where the Rays played their home games last year, is a hitter’s paradise, offering the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, with its short porch in right field, but in the sort of humidity that gives the ball more carry. And yes, in his first full major league season, Caminero was better there, delivering a .954 OPS vs. 743 on the road. But it was pretty much all batting average, about 100 points’ worth, which isn’t how you’d expect him to benefit from the smaller dimensions. The home run output was nearly dead even, with one more actually coming on the road.

It’s true that some hitters have had difficulty seeing the ball at Tropicana Field, where the Rays are returning this year, and we haven’t seen enough of Caminero there to know one way or the other. But the little bit we saw of him in 2025, he delivered better numbers than on the road, which is a good sign. Plus, he was an elite hitting prospect with good contact skills and top-of-the-scales exit velocities who just hit 45 homers as a 21-year-old. Let’s not overthink this.

10) Was Brice Turang’s August a sign of things to come?

Turang’s 50 steals in 2024 were thought to be his only source of value in Fantasy, but then he did probably the biggest thing he could do to salvage his hitting profile: He began drilling the ball, upping his average and max exit velocities by about 4 mph. Such increases are rarely seen from established major leaguers, and few needed it more than Turang, whose average exit velocity percentile rank went from 14th to 75th. In other words, he was impacting the ball well enough to be a legitimate power threat. The only problem was that the angles were all wrong.

His focus was still on hitting the ball to the opposite field, and too often on the ground, which meant that those exit velocity gains were largely wasted. That is, until August, when he seemed to get the memo with a pull rate nearly twice as high as every other month. The result? He hit 10 of his 18 home runs in that month alone, seemingly giving the weakest infield position a new five-category threat. Unfortunately, the season didn’t end there. He reverted to his usual pull rate in September and homered just twice. But we have proof of concept now, thanks to that one month, that this version of Turang can be a power hitter if he refines his approach, in which case there may be second-round upside.

11) Is Roman Anthony prepared to launch?

He was the top prospect in baseball at the time he was called up last year and excelled in the same way he did in the minors, with premium on-base skills and superlative exit velocities. He also had the same bugaboo, putting too many of those hard-hit balls straight into the dirt, which explains why he homered just eight times in 71 games. Six of those home runs came in his final 21 games, though, and during that time, his ground-ball rate was 45 percent compared to 51 percent previously. That’s hardly conclusive, but it suggests progress for a player whose talent is off the charts. Clearly, most of the Fantasy-playing world is buying, making Anthony the 50th player drafted on average.

12) Should we take Josh Naylor seriously as a base stealer?

A man with 3rd percentile sprint speed stole 30 bases last year. He had already set a career high with 11 when the Diamondbacks dealt him to Seattle, and there, he swiped 19 more bags in 54 games for a 162-game pace of 57. What on earth? Apparently, he took increasingly big leads over the course of the year, daring pitchers to use one of their two disengagements by throwing over, and chose his spots carefully, picking on rookie catchers and pitchers who were easier to steal against.

So will the league strike back this year, no longer being caught off guard by his sudden aggression? Will he remain as motivated to run, which is a bigger hurdle than you might think for a middle-of-the-order bat? These are the sorts of questions no amount of number-crunching can answer, but he’s a good enough hitter that he may be worth a sixth-round pick even with the doubts. He wasn’t being drafted much later at this time last year.

13) What effect will Antoan Richardson’s defection have (on Juan Soto in particular)?

Juan Soto wasn’t anyone’s idea of a base-stealer until he teamed up with the then-Mets first base coach, who taught him how to read pitchers and take walking leads, and just like that, Soto was stealing 38 bases, putting him within two of a 40/40 season. Now, Richardson has moved on to the Braves, where his first task will presumably be returning Ronald Acuna Jr., who seemed reluctant to run last year, coming off a second ACL surgery, to his former glory. So will Soto give back his stolen base gains now that he’s by his lonesome? Will others like Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris benefit from Richardson’s tutelage? Or is the whole thing overblown? We’ll see!

14) How will the three big signings out of Japan fare?

Munetaka Murakami is a two-time MVP with transcendent, major league-caliber power but also the kind of swing-and-miss issues that would make Oneil Cruz blush. Kazuma Okamoto has tremendous bat-to-ball skills and was as much of a wRC+ standout in Japan last year as Aaron Judge was in the majors, but some scouting reports doubt the legitimacy of his power. Tatsuya Imai was the league’s hardest-throwing pitcher and a true strikeout merchant, but the whiffs came less on the fastball itself than his secondary offerings, both of which succeed through their lack of familiarity rather than the typical stuff models. We can take their respective contracts (two years, $34 million for Murakami; four years, $60 million for Okamoto; three years, $54 million for Imai) as an indicator of how savvier people than us think they’ll perform relative to each other, but it’s all speculation at this point.

15) Can we count on Zack Wheeler?

The most bankable ace of the past half-decade came down with thoracic outlet syndrome last season and needed surgery to correct it. It’s a scary development given how many high-profile arms that injury has effectively ended, with Chris Carpenter, Matt Harvey, and Stephen Strasburg standing out in recent years. But the compression in their shoulders was neurogenic — i.e., nerve-related. Wheeler’s was vascular, and the surgery to correct it has historically led to better outcomes.

Reports this offseason have been optimistic, even suggesting he may be ready for opening day. The Phillies effectively quashed that idea, though, once pitchers and catchers reported, with Wheeler himself stressing that there’s no need to rush. His timeline for recovery is 6-8 months, and while everyone’s presuming the six, it wouldn’t surprise me if his absence extended into May. Add the uncertainty of how he’ll actually perform coming off this procedure (I’m hopeful, but it’s not a given), and his price tag (about 40th among starting pitchers) is a little rich for me.

16) Has George Springer found the fountain of youth?

Springer seemed on the verge of Fantasy irrelevance at this time a year ago, given recent pattern of decline, so naturally, he had perhaps the best year of his career at age 35. Only one other (2019) is even in the discussion. His second-half performance alone (a .369 batting average, 16 homers, seven steals, and 1.121 OPS in 50 games) was enough to launch him into the stratosphere. Should you really bet on a 36-year-old suddenly finding the fountain of youth? It goes against my better judgment, but so few outfielders are capable of delivering the kind of numbers Springer did last year that the temptation may be too much to resist around Pick 75, where he’s generally drafted.

17) Are we sure Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are on the decline?

They were given some benefit of the doubt at this time a year ago, but after back-to-back seasons of diminished production, these early-round mainstays are being priced lower than ever, which makes for a terrific buying opportunity if you believe it’s all bunk.

So is it? Well, both are still in their 20s and have seen no decline in raw ability, judging by the exit velocity readings. Furthermore, both have been diminished by injuries the past couple years. For Riley, it was a fracture in 2024 and core muscle surgery in 2025. For Albies, it was a fractured wrist in 2024, the effects of which spilled into 2025, and then a broken hamate bone just as soon as he seemed back on track.

I think a combination of slow starts and early exits can account for their diminished production, but you can find evidence of their former glory within that two-year window, most notably Riley’s .292 batting average, 16 home runs and .942 OPS over the final 57 games he was healthy in 2024 and Albies’ .268 batting average, 10 homers, seven steals and .762 OPS over the final 66 games he was healthy in 2025. Seeing the glass half full could be massively rewarding at their current cost.

18) Is Wrigley Field about to ruin Alex Bregman?

Bregman is the sort of hitter who comes about his power more through angling the ball just right than throttling it. There was a time when every Fantasy Baseball analyst acknowledged this and worried what would happen when he wasn’t at a park that optimized his pull-side power, as was true in Houston and Boston. Well, now he’s going to one of the worst offenders, Wrigley Field, with its deep outfield corners and punishing winds. You’ll find some data that suggests he’ll make out just fine there, but I present the opposite case in my Busts 1.0.

19) Was Trevor Rogers for real?

The left-hander placed second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 and then endured a three-year stretch with a 5.09 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9. So how did he turn in a 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 over 18 starts last year? Well, his control got a little better, and his velocity got a little better. Not the most satisfying explanation, is it? That’s probably why he’s only the 45th starting pitcher drafted on average in spite of those crazy numbers. But at the same time, he had a 1.81 ERA last year. Even if you know better than to take it at face value, there’s obviously something behind it. I’d be drafting him well ahead of consensus, right around 30th at starting pitcher.

20) How hard should we be buying into Brandon Woodruff?

The 33-year-old’s time as an ace seemed to be done when he returned from shoulder capsule surgery with 3 mph less on his fastball. That would normally be a deal-breaker for any pitcher, but particularly one as fastball-reliant as Woodruff. Somehow, though, the introduction of a cutter was enough to offset it — like, completely. His 32.3 percent strikeout rate and 11.6 K/9 were both career highs, in fact. He was so effective for the 12 starts he was healthy that we’d probably be drafting him like an ace again if not for the fact that his season ended early with a moderate lat strain. That’s another injury that could have unpredictable effects, particularly for a pitcher whose arm has already endured so much trauma. Early drafts are guarded, and his spring training performance could tell us a lot.

21) Was Jakob Marsee just a small-sample fakeout?

Though a capable base-stealer who showed a knack for getting on base, Marsee wasn’t much of a prospect prior to his August promotion. So naturally, he took the league by storm in that first month, slashing .352/.430/.629 with four homers and nine steals in 30 games. A lot of people would end the analysis there, but unfortunately, he hung around in September, too, and slashed only .231/.292/.327 with one home run and five steals in those 25 games. So which version is closer to the real one? Let’s just say Marsee is featured in my Busts 1.0.

22) Is Kauffman Stadium about to become a hitter’s park?

The Royals have moved in the fence about 10 feet everywhere but straightaway center and lowered it by 1 1/2 feet as well. It’s a similar configuration to the one they used from 1995 through 2003, when the park played as more hitter-friendly. It wasn’t extremely so. Estimates put its home run factor in the 105 range, which is similar to Truist Park or American Family Field, but when you compare it to the 85 figure Kauffman Stadium has run over the past three years, it’s a significant change.

I would suggest looking up how Salvador Perez or Vinnie Pasquantino would have fared at those two other venues, but I don’t think you’re ready for it. I also think it overstates the case, judging by some of the more rigorous models being conducted. Still, the change should help hitters tap into more power, perhaps doing even more good for fringier options like Jonathan India and Isaac Collins than for the established sluggers.

23) Will Sal Stewart get regular playing time?

Things were looking up when Gavin Lux was traded to the Rays earlier this offseason, but then the Reds created an even clearer conflict by signing Eugenio Suarez. Stewart seems primed to make a splash, having homered five times in his 18 major league games last September, but manager Terry Francona seemed reluctant to play him regularly then. Doing so now would mean playing either Stewart or Spencer Steer somewhere other than first base — which both have shown the ability to do, but not without a defensive hit.

24) How long before Ivan Herrera has catcher eligibility?

I’ve laid out the breakout case for Herrera elsewhere, but to summarize, he slashed .284/.373/.464 as a first-year full-time starter last year and had a 162-game pace of 29 homers. And he’s a true everyday starter. After returning from a hamstring injury in August, he started 65 of the Cardinals‘ final 66 games. He’s also just a DH, having been too limited by an elbow injury to catch much last year. Now that it’s been corrected surgically, the Cardinals have said Herrera will catch again, but that’s presumably in a backup role. Will he be a true backup or more of an emergency option behind the plate? Even with a loaded catcher crop, he has top-five potential at the position, but it could be May or beyond before you can actually use him there.

25) Who will the Brewers use as their closer?

Trevor Megill was an All-Star closer until he strained his elbow flexor in August. That’s when Abner Uribe stepped into the role, and as you might expect by his 1.67 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9, he didn’t miss a beat. For as well as the Abner-to-Megill bridge was working, wouldn’t you presume the Brewers would go back to it now that everyone is healthy? Unfortunately, we already have evidence to the contrary. Megill returned for the playoffs and was used more like a setup man in his five appearances, even opening Game 5 of the NLDS. Were they just easing him in, given the high stakes and recency of his return? They’ve offered little indication either way, though the prevailing assumption is that he’s still the guy.

Left on the cutting room floor: Is Jackson Merrill a lock to bounce back?How will the Yankees handle their four-man outfield?Is Devin Williams as good as new?Does Shane McClanahan have anything left?Were Bubba Chandler’s struggles at Triple-A a red herring?How will the Rays distribute saves?