In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
Exclusive Look At Nick’s Updated 2026 SP Rankings:
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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One Sheet Of All Twins SPs:
Expected Starters
Joe Ryan (RHP)
2025 Stats: 171.0 IP | 3.42 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 28.2 K% | 5.7 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
His four-seamer is incredible, not because of its velocity or movement, but due to his 99th percentile HAVAA, solid extension, and fantastic ability to keep it up in the zone. Without fantastic secondaries keeping batters off hunting the heater on every pitch, Ryan is susceptible to the longball – 16 HRs off the heater in 2025 and 19 in 2023 – though his embrace of a sinker to RHB is helping the cause, increasing its horizontal movement a touch while raising its usage north of a 15% clip, a mark that I expect to increase in 2026 as I hope for it to find the inside edge more often. Those aforementioned HRs are the biggest concern for managers drafting Ryan, and yet, he’s held an ERA above 3.60 just once in his last four seasons, while displaying incredible WHIP marks, and nearly fanning 200 batters twice in three seasons. The fact he has been so effective without a filthy #2 pitch against RHB or LHB could be seen as a negative, but I see is an expression of his incredible fastball foundation and a shorter path toward growth than expected for someone already having as much success as Ryan.
He’s one of the safer arms to snag as your SP #1.5/#2 in drafts and who knows, maybe he’s on a better team come August, removing the possibility of morale affecting production in the second half as it did in 2025 (yes, that’s how I interpret his downturn late in the year). When your safe arm can strikeout 200 batters, you should have a massive grin on your face.
Quick Take: His teres strain of 2024 wasn’t a factor in 2025 and I consider him a workhorse for the season ahead, especially with free agency heading his way in 2026 (it’s a $13 million mutual option…which we know won’t happen), and what I see is double-digit Wins, a fantastic ratio floor, a boatload of strikeouts, and even a touch of upside if he ever figures out an above-average secondary pitch. You should feel great grabbing him this season.
Pablo López (RHP)
2025 Stats: 75.2 IP | 2.74 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 23.4 K% | 6.4 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
I’m not concerned about PabLó’s mild forearm strain at the end of last season – I asked him about it and he told me he would have returned to the mound if the season was a week or two longer – and all signs point to a normal off-season and spring as if nothing happened. Phew. The skills? Still solid, though there are a few tweaks I hope are made this year. He told me The changeup is always there during his 2024 interview, yet the pitch wasn’t there against LHB in 2025, featuring just a 52% strike rate and 11% SwStr rate despite throwing it nearly 30% of the time. Given the questionable sweeper and curve to LHB, that put too much weight on the four-seamer. That has to get better.
I also hope he doesn’t give in quite as much with his four-seamer. PabLó’s heater has some excellent qualities – 95/96 mph velocity, 7+ feet extension, 1.2 HAVAA, – but movement is not one of them. He’s routinely featured the pitch in the zone without fear and while that has kept his walk rates low over his career, I hope he can become a little picky with its location, with more high intent than in previous seasons. Why? Because it’ll make the separation between the pitch and his sinker that much more effective. In addition, batters freely swing at the pitch (keying in on it often), and playing with that approach a little more should work to his benefit.
Don’t worry about the injury last season and embrace López as a Holly if not more for 2026. His 23% strikeout rate will likely increase as the changeup’s form and sub 20% putaway rates on everything positively regress, while there’s hope for another level with a small tweak with his heaters. He may not have the greatest WHIP or another sub 3.00 ERA season, and that’s okay. He’ll be an SP #2/#3 all year.
Quick Take: I’m optimistic about PabLó’s health and ability to get his changeup working against LHB once again, while the strikeout rate should return to 25%+ with positive regression in putaway rates across the board. His four-seamer is still a bit more hittable than we’d like, and the sweeper’s feel can go in and out, but the overall package of great control, quality ratios, and likely 170 IP of 180+ strikeouts is a lovely addition to any team.
Bailey Ober (RHP)
2025 Stats: 146.1 IP | 5.10 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 19.2 K% | 5.0 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Ober had a bad year. He served plenty of HRs, spent time on the IL with injury, lost 1-2 ticks on his four-seamer, and it was just rough. Well, except for a near two-month stretch after his first start of the season (8 ER against the Cardinals…yikes.), where he had a 2.43 ERA in eleven starts. Wait, really? Yeah, he actually wasn’t the worst for a decent amount of time, albeit with a questionable WHIP and strikeout rate as he was barely sitting over 90 mph and wasn’t displaying a sustainable approach. So we don’t like Ober, right? Actually, I kinda do.
Ober isn’t so far off from his old self. The changeup needs to get its whiffs back against RHB (just throw it early in the count again!), the slider/cutter needs to stay away from the top of the zone and shouldn’t be trusted so much against LHB (five HRs off mistakes in the middle to LHB, but maybe that gets ironed out?), and assuming his velocity is back to 91-92 mph (we can monitor this in the spring, but ultimately, we won’t know until his first true start), he really just has to do one thing. Become the man you used to be. The man with one of my favorite nicknames that made you a Bailey Special. Become the Oberizzi. He used to feature the four-seamer upstairs nearly 80% of the time to both LHB and RHB, which has since fallen below a 60% clip. Nope. Gotta fix that.
I can see the narrative of an injury-plagued season bringing down his velocity and preventing him from focusing on his four-seamer command as a priority, and don’t forget that Ober was routinely drafted among the Top 40 SP entering last season. As long as there’s nothing to deter us in the spring, Ober should pitch the opening weekend (sweet!), making for a lovely last round pick as we can make the hold/drop decision after his first outing. Monitor the fastball velocity and locations and take the chance.
Quick Take: Ober’s 2025 was terrible, but that doesn’t mean his 2026 is destined for failure. It’s possible his hip injury affected his performance all year, pulling down his velocity and preventing him for reclaiming the top of the zone with his four-seamer. I love a pitcher with a clear solution to their problems, allowing for a quick decision early in the season. Consider Ober in the final rounds as a flier who you can move on from before the end of opening weekend if the fastball fails to eclipse 91 mph and struggles to land upstairs often.
On The Fringe
Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP)
2025 Stats: 111.1 IP | 4.04 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 22.7 K% | 9.8 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
SWR, you rascal. He deserves respect for his openness to experiment, from moments pushing his extension to seven feet (then back down to 6.7 feet or so), having nights of 94/95 mph velocity vs. 92/93 mph on others, and then suddenly whipping out a legit splitter to LHB for the final two months of the season, catalyzing 20 strikeouts in two of his final three games, against the Yankees and Phillies, no less. His slider has solid sweep to it with his higher-than-average arm angle, and the 17+ vert is still effective when elevated to RHB, making for a decent approach on one side of the plate, with the hope of that splitter to silence LHB. It’s that simple, really.
Among the three/four(?) Twins starters vying for two rotation spots, Woods Richardson seems like the best bet after his strong finish, and I’m awfully curious if we see that fastball/slider/splitter approach continue, hopefully at 94+ mph on the heater. I believe we’ve all brushed him aside and there is a chance here he could do something. A fun flier, for sure.
Quick Take: Woods Richardson’s final two months of the season featured a new splitter focus to LHB that paid dividends by the season’s end. That approach could propel strikeouts again in 2026 if he can nail the BSB with his four-seamer and slider to RHB, hopefully with a heater at 94+ mph. With just three locked arms in Minnesota, SWR has a chance for a full season’s workload if he can establish himself as a decent arm in camp, creating surprising upside of volume and 23%+ strikeouts.
Zebby Matthews (RHP)
2025 Stats: 79.1 IP | 5.56 ERA | 1.49 WHIP | 24.9 K% | 6.8 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
All eyes are on Matthews. With legit stuff numbers, 96/97 mph velocity, a 92 mph cutter, and a 22% SwStr slider among low walk rates, Zebby looks poised for a breakout. After all, K-BB% loves him, stuff loves him, the opportunity is ripe for the taking, and it’s a textbook arsenal that we’ve seen work. Why are you writing in a way that looks like a setup. Because it is a setup. THEN GET TO THE POINT. I think this is a situation of control and command being two distinctly different things. Oh. Huh.
Zebby fills the zone too dang much. His four-seamer and sinker both had a zone rate above 60% to RHB, the latter of which should be hover 50% in my book (it should land inside and more inside), and the former was tagged a whole lot by both LHB and RHB. I’m not joking, each returned an ICR over 55%. Yikes. It’s a product not just of batters getting comfortable and relying on heaters to swat over the plate, but also its lack of excitement under the hood. Sure, it’s 96+ mph, but everything else is average, from extension to HAVAA, and let me tell you, average movement on a fastball is the worst. That’s deadzone.
The cutter and slider certainly help the cause, but have issues of their own. The slider does its job well to RHB as a two-strike offering, though it may need to appear more often when behind in counts to keep batters from fastball hunting. His 92 mph cutter has solid horizontal movement compared to the heater and against RHB and should be thrown far more than 11% of the time, but LHB crushed the offering. Why? Because it fell into the nitro zone far too often.
And that’s really the problem with Zebby. Our Mistake% metric doesn’t suggest Zebby is throwing meatballs often, but with his slider saved for two strikes and lack of fear throwing over the plate, batters are getting comfortable early in the at-bat, and especially when ahead. And while I want to say that this is a fixable trait, I also hate how often these pitches are getting punished when over the plate. We’ve seen many pitchers feature high-zone pitches and their stuff masks the mistakes. The fact that hitters have had such a fun time with his four-seamer is a huge red flag. All of that said, Zebby still has a whiffable slider, a good cutter, and a 96 mph four-seamer. A major shift in approach and locations could turn him into a phenomenal arm overnight, and I sure hope to make a video about his breakout season this year. I hate wishcasting, though, and this has all the makings of a HIPSTER in my book.
Quick Take: Zebby’s deadzone four-seamer needs to find a way to stop allowing so much hard contact. Its high zone rates could be the issue, while tweaks with his sinker, cutter, and slider could be the answer he needs to take the next step forward. I’m concerned there’s too much needed to fix, creating a volatile arm if he gets the #5 SP slot in Minnesota. This has HIPSTER written all over it, and I’d rather chase something more straightforward.
Taj Bradley (RHP)
2025 Stats: 142.2 IP | 5.05 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 21.0 K% | 9.3 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Nope. I refuse. Bradley is the king of Williamsburg – aka HIPSTER city. He’ll have those days when he fills up the four-seamer without proper intent and have enough feel for his splitter down and find strikes with his cutter and/or curve to give you a dominant game, but who knows what the next one will bring? His 28% strikeout in 2024 was propelled by unsustainable putaway rates (29% on his splitter to the LHB, 26%+ on his cutter to both LHB and RHB) that plummeted a bit further than expected in 2025, and he needs the volatile splitter to make his four-seamer effective against LHB (the cutter fails to nullify the hittable fastball to RHB). He just isn’t trustworthy. The absurdly low chance of Bradley having a breakout season is not worth the risk of endless anxiety and missing out on anyone else on your waiver wire. Please, don’t do this.
Quick Take: He’s as volatile as anyone out there. I have yet to see consistent command of his three offerings (four-seamer, cutter, splitter), while the curveball is too big to earn strikes frequently. There will be moments where he looks to have something figured out and I simply won’t go for it. You’re better off letting your leaguemates take the awfully slim chance of a stud Bradley season than endure the pain he’s brought for years.
Names To Know
Mick Abel (RHP)
I’m a believer. Abel’s 96/97 mph four-seamer comes with a generally flat attack angle and more vert than expected at his super low 28-degree angle, and he spots it beautifully. The heater lives upstairs at will, so much it makes Bailey Ober jealous and reminisce of days gone by. His two-plane 82/83 mph curve is his favorite breaker that can be a solid weapon to both LHB and RHB, while the rest of the arsenal needs a bit of polish. The slider is terribly spotted to RHB, and I’m curious if the sweeper we saw in his final appearances leap-frogs the pitch as the favored weapon to RHB moving forward. His changeup feel was chaotic as well, a terrible attribute for a pitch Abel is reliant upon to prevent a simple two-pitch mix to LHB. With the heater and curve as a foundation (plus a sinker that should have far more ride at his low arm slot – maybe a new grip will come?), I see a coachable young arm who could perform at a high level in the blink of an eye. When he gets his chance in the rotation this season, pay attention.
David Festa (RHP)
Let’s put the whole injury concerns on the side for a moment (mild TOS is not a great outlook, but at least it’s mild? We’ll get an update soon, I’m sure), I’m skeptical of Festa’s command. If he’s able to execute the Imperial Shuttle (i.e. fastballs up, sliders gloveside, changeups armside), then I’d be down for a guy sporting 94 mph fastballs with cut-action and 7+ feet of extension with two whiffable secondaries. However, his slider feel to RHB has been rough, to say the least, his four-seamer can’t find the proper locations (up-and-in to LHB, away to RHB above the slider), and the changeup doesn’t get enough strikes though it does seem he’s close to nailing down its precision. It’s a clear case of “I’ll believe it when I see it,” which could be a moment given the injury. Here’s to hoping.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Connor Prielipp (LHP, 25, AAA) – Watch Video
Yeah, he’s a legit SWATCH. What we have here is a 94/95 mph four-seamer with good control, a filthy slider at 86/87 mph that can work against both LHB and RHB, a solid changeup down-and-away to RHB, and a sinker that lacks movement, but is controlled inside effectively. With the lack of reliable depth for the Twins, I’m treating Prielipp as the SP #8 for the Twins, assuming Festa is starting the season on IL, and he’s worth the add when the inevitable call comes his way. We saw other southpaws excel last season with a worse version of this arsenal.
Andrew Morris (RHP, 24, AAA) – Watch Video
I’m not sure what to make of Morris. He has a cut-fastball without the best movement and low extension at 95 mph, paired with a legit 89/90 mph cutter that has a whole lot of cut, and sweeper that he struggles to command on the gloveside edge. There’s a changeup and sinker in there as well, plus that sweeper he’s experimenting with and a big curveball for LHB that I don’t think will be much of a landmark, making it come down to the four-seamer and cutter steering the ship. There’s potential, but 89 strikeouts in 94 innings of Triple-A ball isn’t quite the juice we’re looking for when considering arms to leap for when they get their call.
Kendry Rojas (LHP, 23, AAA) – Watch Video
Rojas cruised through A-ball and was promoted to Triple-A after just four starts of 30 strikeouts and only two walks in 18 frames, but that’s where the fun ends in 2025. His time in Triple-A was tumultuous to say the least, tossing once for the Jays’ squad before getting traded at the deadline in the Varland deal, and struggling for St. Paul the rest of the way. He’s a southpaw with cut-action on his fastballs (he throws a sinker that has no sink or horizontal ride…it’s weird), a changeup that finds the outside edge often to RHB, but doesn’t have exciting movement, and a 87 mph slider he loves to both LHB and RHB that doesn’t have a whole lot of depth. Everything is clustered together unlike most starters and it makes me skeptical that he’ll rebound in 2026 from his tough time in Triple-A. It may be a case of his fastball/slider combo looking awfully like one-another, and the changeup adds more deception to RHB, especially when he’s featuring 94 mph from the left side. I want to see him adjust in Triple-A before granting my advocacy.
Marco Raya (RHP, 23, AAA) – Watch Video
He’s a Stuff McNasty – the secondaries miss bats and the fastballs are intertwined to help keep batters honest. The leaders of the pack are a sweeper and curve in the 84-86 mph range that Raya controls well and will throw them 50% of the time combined, while the 93/94 mph four-seamer and sinker hope to find the edges without much going for them. There’s also a 92 mph changeup without a ton of fade that can work in two strikes at times, and he’s all kinds of intriguing. there was a rough patch in the middle of the season before moving to the pen at the end of the year (likely due to a logjam of arms), and I wonder if he can pick up where he left off in April. There’s strikeout potential here, even if the fastballs hold him back from being a legit fantasy arm.
CJ Culpepper (RHP, 24, AA) – Watch Video
He’s a kitchen sink arm who doesn’t have electric stuff. That could mean his slider is worthwhile for time as a spot starter in the bigs, but for now, I need to see more than low-90s velocity from a RHP without the results to make us overlook it – just 45 strikeouts in 54 frames in Double-A last season. Wait and see.
Charlee Soto (RHP, 20, A+) – Watch Video
Soto underwent elbow surgery last season to remove bone spurs, ending his year with just 13 frames of A+ ball. It’s easy to be pessimistic about a call up this year, though his build certainly looks MLB ready. He throws ched at mid-to-upper 90s with a hard slider and splitter to match and all he really needs is a little more time on the bump before he’ll show up in Minnesota (and maybe something else that isn’t a splitter for LHB…). At such a young age and many options ahead of him, Soto is unlikely to debut this year, let alone next, but I’d sure love to see as soon as possible. Him and Hill look like a fantastic duo for the future Twins rotation.
Dasan Hill (LHP, 20, A+) – Watch Video
We haven’t seen a whole lot from Hill, but hot dang is this guy legit…once he gets the control in order. He’s a southpaw who can sit 95 mph with a full arsenal. That’s really all I need to tell you, and at 20-years-old, he’ll have a season or two in the minors, polishing that command, and likely turning into a major stud for the Twins by 2029. As for 2027? I’d be shocked if they pushed a 20-year-old who has fewer than 60 professional innings and walk issues into the majors without a full season on the farm, but hey, weirder things have happened. If Hill gets the call this year, pick him up. Just do it.