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With all the advanced analytics in Major League Baseball, players across the league are judged under a larger microscope with statistics beyond the standard batting average, OPS, home runs, RBI, etc. There are now several sabermetrics that can judge a player based on outside factors that are outside of their control. These include FIP, xwOBA, xAVG, and if those stats are far off from regular statistics (ERA, OBP, AVG, etc), a player may be deemed ‘lucky’.
Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar missed 80 games last season due to testing positive for PED’s, but he turned in a solid season after the suspension. A recent prediction piece by RazzBall.com features Profar as one player who is due for regression in 2026.
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Will Jurickson Profar Regress in 2026?
Over 80 games last season, Profar hit 14 home runs, 16 doubles, and slashed .353/.434/.787.
In 2024, Jurickson Profar was named an All-Star for the first time, and these last two seasons have been some of the best in his career. Before the 2025 season, Profar signed a three-year, $42 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.
In RazzBall.com’s recent piece, Braves’ Jurickson Profar is named as one of five MLB hitters due for regression in 2026:
“He is capable of posting quality counting stats in the heart of the Braves’ offense with his plate discipline and occasional power, but it will come at the cost of batting average. Profar’s .230 xAVG and .390 xSLG in 2025 should foreshadow his rough stats in 2026.”
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The other hitters on the list are Josh Naylor, Trea Turner, Geraldo Perdomo, and Junior Caminero.
The last two seasons by Profar have featured career-high marks in OPS+ (134, 121). He’s a lifetime .245 hitter with an OPS+ of 101.
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So, Will Jurickson Profar Regress In 2026?
If Jurickson Profar regressed in 2026, it might be because of the mental strain of being purely a DH. It’s been announced by the Braves that Jurickson Profar will likely be the everyday DH now that Marcell Ozuna departed in MLB free agency.
Profar’s defense has taken a strong dip in the last few years, and this move is probably the best option for him and the Braves.
So, will he regress in 2026? Profar is also likely going to be at the top of the Braves order, so as long as he stays healthy, he will get plenty of opportunity to prove he shouldn’t be a regression candidate.
Only time will tell if he does ultimately have a down 2026 season, but for Atlanta’s sake, it could use ample production out of Profar, whom they are paying nearly $15 million a year.
The Braves also brought in Mike Yastrzemski on a two-year, $23 million deal to help with outfield depth. If any of the Braves’ current outfielders get injured, Profar would still likely stay as the DH, however.
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