FORT MYERS, Fla. — FanGraphs’ ZiPS projects nobody on the Red Sox to hit more than 18 home runs in 2026.
Trevor Story, Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu are each projected to hit 18 homers. Willson Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran are each projected to hit 17.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said earlier this week that he’s confident power will emerge from the current roster.
Contreras, who is expected to bat cleanup after coming over to Boston in a trade from the Cardinals in December, named three hitters he thinks can emerge to provide home runs.
Ceddanne Rafaela, who hit 16 home runs, 34 doubles and four triples while slugging .414, is the first person who Contreras mentioned.
“I think he can add some more power,” Contreras said. “I think of course Roman Anthony is there. Marcelo Mayer is there. I think it’s really impressive how they go through their business and how much power they have already, even though they’re young. I think with the future, they’re going to add a lot more.”
Manager Alex Cora said Rafaela is capable of increasing his home run power if he cuts down on the number of pitches he chases out of the strike zone. Rafaela had a 42.2% chase percentage last year, ranking in MLB’s bottom two percentile.
“If we don’t chase that much,” Cora said. “He goes through stretches that he’s swinging at a pitch in the middle of the zone and doing damage. And we want more consistency. We like the player, we know there’s more. He knows it, too. So hopefully everybody can help him to get better at his craft and we can get the final product.”
ZiPS projects Mayer to hit just nine home runs but he certainly has extra-base power potential.
Breslow said a fully healthy season out of Anthony should help in power emerging from this group. As a rookie last season, Anthony’s power numbers improved during the second half. The 21-year-old slugged .503 in his final 40 games after slugging .406 during his first 31 games.
Breslow also pointed to Contreras and Abreu as being important sources of power.
Cora identified the 33-year-old Contreras as his cleanup hitter back at Fenway Fest in January.
“I think the most important thing for me is just having good at-bats,” Contreras said. “Doesn’t matter where I hit in the lineup. I think we have a really good team from one to nine who can back each other up. And hitting the cleanup spot, it’s good. I think it’s fun and I’m looking forward to it.”