CAMELBACK RANCH, AZ — Since we’re still a few weeks from meaningful games, we baseball scribes will flap our jaws about anything in the early days of Spring Training. The chatter on Day One of Dodgers camp seemed to circulate around one topic in particular. Does Shohei Ohtani have a run at the Cy Young award in him? Well, like a lot of things involving LA’s Japanese superstar, it’s complicated.

Before we get too deep in the weeds about this sort of thing, let’s recap what was said as camp in Arizona opened up. Manager Dave Roberts said that he thought there was another gear that Ohtani could hit on the mound this year. “I I think the regular offseason ramp up, I I think there’s certainly a lot more in there,” he said during his press scrum on Thursday. “And regardless of my expectations for him, his are going to exceed those. I think it’s fair to say he expects to be in the Cy Young conversation.”

Roberts went on to praise Ohtani’s work ethic, emphasizing that from the Dodgers’ perspective, the key was to keep him on the field all seaon. “We just want to be healthy and make starts,” Doc explained, “and all the uh the numbers and statistics will take care of themselves, but man, this guy is such a disciplined worker and he expects the most from himself.”

As far as Ohtani, he downplayed the possibility of a Cy Young when he was asked about it in his scrum with reporters. “If the end result is getting a Cy Young, that’s great,” he said through interpreter Will Ireton. “Getting a Cy Young means being able to throw more innings pitch throughout the whole season. If the end result is that, that’s a good sign for me.”

Though we appreciate the humility, you know the guy would love to add the Cy Young to his already crowded mantlepiece. It would be a heavy lift, but it’s not a crazy thought. Let’s look at the last few Cy Young award winners in the the NL, and see what kind of bar has been set for Ohtani in 2026.

What “Cy Young volume” has looked like lately in the NL

Of course, gone are the days of a Cy Young winner throwing up 300 innings like Sandy Koufax did early in his Hall of Fame career. Even Clayton Kershaw’s 230+ innings from his Cy Young seasons looks unatainable in today’s game. Managers playing the long game will just not waste innings in June or July that they might need in October. So, let’s take a gander at the last five NL winners and what they put on the board:

2025 Paul Skenes: 1.97 ERA with 187.2 IP and 216 K.

2024 Chris Sale: 18–3, 2.38 ERA, 225 K in 177 IP (the NL pitching Triple Crown winner).

2023 Blake Snell: 2.25 ERA with 234 K in 180 IP.

2022 Sandy Alcantara: 2.28 ERA, 207 K in 228.2 IP, plus 6 complete games.

2021 Corbin Burnes: 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 234 K in 167 IP.

Different styles, same theme: even Burnes, the “smaller workload” winner in that group, still cleared 167 innings. Sale had 177. The others are sitting at 180–229 innings.

So the NL bar is usually: front-of-the-rotation volume + front-of-the-league run prevention.

Where Ohtani’s pitching profile fits (and where it doesn’t yet)

Ohtani’s most recent seasons on the mound were:

2022: 166 IP, 2.33 ERA, 219 K, 1.01 WHIP. (Ohtani’s last full season on the mound)

2023: 132 IP, 3.14 ERA, 167 K, 1.06 WHIP (season cut short, UCL tear).

2025 (return): 47 IP across 14 games, 2.87 ERA, 62 K, 1.04 WHIP.

That 2022 line is basically a neon sign that says: “Yes, the stuff is Cy Young caliber.” But that innings threshold is going to be the killer. Dave Roberts has already said that a six-man rotation is a strong possiblility this year. That means 30 or fewer starts in best-case scenario. But as we saw last year, the Dodgers were strategic about when to throw Ohtani, preferring to delay starts until right before an off day so that his offensive production would have a chance to rebound. So you figure that puts Shohei down to maybe 25 starts. If each one goes six innings, that’s only 150 innings. That doesn’t seem like it’s enough to compete for the Cy Young.

The real question for 2026: can he get to the innings threshold?

If Ohtani throws 150–170 innings in 2026 with the kind of dominance he’s shown at his best, he’s instantly in the conversation. If he’s closer to 110–130 innings, he probably needs something historic to overcome the gap, because the recent winners are living in that 180+ neighborhood.

Indeed, I made the case a couple of seasons ago that Julio Urias lost out to Sandy Alcantara on the workload question alone. That year Urias’s numbers were in many ways better than Alcanatara’s, but he just didn’t put up the volume. A simple voting-behavior model like FanGraphs’ Cy Young Points literally bakes in innings and strikeouts (plus wins and earned runs), which is another way of saying: you have to pile up starter volume to rack up “award math.”

How Shohei stacks up to the recent winners, tool-for-tool

If you’re comparing “what would Ohtani need to look like?” you can use the winners as templates:

Skenes (2025) template: ace volume + absurd ERA
Skenes won with 187.2 IP and a 1.97 ERA, and he still struck out 216. He’s certain to be gunning for those marks again this season. For Ohtani to match that, you’re talking something like 175–190 IP with an ERA that starts with a 1 or very low 2, plus big strikeouts. Ohtani’s got the swing-and-miss stuff that could get a lot of K’s. His 62 strikeouts in just 47 innings of work shows you that he can rack up big totals in that category. But will that be enough to catch Skenes? Doubtful, but we’ll see.

Sale (2024) template: Triple Crown, big win total, big Ks
Sale went 18–3, led the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
The triple crown for Ohtani is probably pie-in-the-sky, but Shohei could very well benefit from the jersey he’s wearing. If the Dodgers are going to be as good as we think they are this year, that could mean a lot of W’s for starters. If Shohei gets above 15 wins, say, that will look good on a statline, even if voters are a bit more sophisticated these days and tend to downplay the importance of this particular stat. Nevertheless, a hefty win total would help his candidacy immensely.

Snell (2023) template: overpowering, not a workhorse
Shohei’s current teammate Blake Snell’s winning season might be the best path to a Cy Young for Shohei. won with 180 innings and 234 strikeouts, powered by the best ERA in MLB. This is a realistic comp for Ohtani stylistically: lots of swing-and-miss, front-line stuff. And, because Ohtani’s command is much better than the sometimes wild Snell, his WHIP and BB% figure to better. But even Snell’s “lower volume” Cy year was still 180 IP. There’s that sticking point again.

Alcantara (2022) template: innings-eater supremacy
Alcantara’s 228.2 innings basically was the argument, and he paired it with a 2.28 ERA.
That’s the toughest lane for Ohtani to copy while also being a daily offensive centerpiece. If somebody throws up those kind of numbers in 2026, it ain’t happening for Shohei. No way, no how. Thank you, next.

Burnes (2021) template: dominance per inning
Here’s another guy that Shohei could look to. Burnes won in 2022 with just 167 innings and elite run prevention and strikeouts. This is the best “minimum viable innings” example from this group. It’s also right on top of Ohtani’s 2022 workload (166 IP). However, let’s remember the context. In 2021, we were coming off the Covid season and managers and front offices were reluctant to push their pitchers too hard. Only four pitchers (LA’s Walker Buehler among them) were able to clear 200 innings that year. Not sure that Burnes-level output would win in 2026.

So what does a realistic Cy Young case look like in 2026?

Simply put, everything has to go perfect for Shohei to be in contention with the game’s top pitchers. (And if Paul Skenes goes on the IL for six weeks, that wouldn’t hurt). Here’s what a winning year might look like:

Shohei gets back to at least his 2022 innings neighborhood
Pre-surgery, Ohtani already showed he can handle 166 IP in a season.
If he’s back in the 160–175 IP range, you can start making “Snell 2023” style arguments without gilding the lily too much.

The run prevention has to be top-of-the-league, not just “very good”
A 2.8 ERA is nice. It usually doesn’t win. Recent NL winners are living around 2.4 and below, with Skenes at 1.97 and Snell at 2.25.
Ohtani’s own proof of concept is 2022: 2.33. His 2.87 from last season is great, but in this environment, he’s going to have to improve on that number.

He needs the loud strikeout stats that pop on a statline
Strikeouts matter, and Ohtani has been a strikeout monster when healthy (219 K in 2022).
If he’s sitting at, say, 200+ Ks with a sub-2.50 ERA and solid innings, that’s a headline voters understand quickly.

Bottom line

Ohtani’s “legitimate shot” comes down to one thing: starter innings.

If he throws something like 160–175 innings with an ERA in the low-2s and a big strikeout total, he’s not a novelty candidate. He’s right in the same shape as recent winners, especially the 2021 Burnes mold.

If the Dodgers keep him closer to a managed workload again, and he finishes around 120 innings, he probably needs to be so dominant that he’s lapping the league in rate stats to beat out a Alcantara-style workhorse season. Don’t see that happening.

So will Shohei Ohtani be joining Kershaw, Koufax, and Hershiser on the list of Dodger Cy Young winners. It’s not impossible. But highly unlikely.

However, far be it from me to put anything past a guy who invented the 50/50 club just because he could.

Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!

Related