This was a winter of tremendous change in the National League. The New York Mets have been almost completely reimagined, Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman are in the NL for the first time, the St. Louis Cardinals traded away almost all of their veterans, and even the Pittsburgh Pirates got in on the action with their most aggressive offseason in years.
After all of that tumult and turnover, the NL favorite is still the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Having won back-to-back championships, the Dodgers kept most of their roster intact but added two more massive free agents — Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz — and FanGraphs is giving the Dodgers better than a 25-percent chance of winning a third straight World Series (the next-best odds belong to the Atlanta Braves at 9.2 percent). The PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus give the Dodgers lower World Series odds but a better regular season record, projecting 104.3 wins (10 more than any other team).
The Mets (who executed a massive roster turnover), Cubs (who lost Tucker but signed Bregman) and Philadelphia Phillies (who brought back two key bats and supplemented at the edges) and are the only other NL teams getting better than 2-percent World Series odds at FanGraphsof winning the World Series, and PECOTA agrees that those are the next-best teams in the league. The Brewers, who had the most wins in baseball last season, traded away their No. 1 starter, everyday third baseman, and primary left fielder from last year’s team and are not even favored to win their division.
Here, we look at the offseason approach of every National League team, ranked by their World Series odds (according to FanGraphs) heading into spring training.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year: 93-69, won World Series
World Series odds: 28.1 percent
One notable loss: RP Michael Kopech
One notable addition: RF Kyle Tucker
Winning the offseason in two moves
The Dodgers didn’t do a lot this winter, but they made the moves count by signing the market’s top free agent hitter (Kyle Tucker) and top free agent closer (Edwin Díaz) to address their only glaring needs. Even some of their losses — reliever Kirby Yates, outfielder Michael Conforto — could be seen as addition by subtraction considering their disappointing seasons. They also brought back Miguel Rojas and Kiké Hernández to maintain their depth and versatility, and they re-signed Evan Phillips to potentially help their bullpen late in the year. The Dodgers continue to have — and spend — an embarrassment of riches, and they’re heavy favorites to win another World Series, which would be their third straight.
Atlanta Braves
Last year: 76-86, fourth in NL East
World Series odds: 9.2 percent
One notable loss: DH Marcell Ozuna
One notable addition: RP Robert Suarez
Filling holes, reestablishing legitimacy
Would-be contenders who fell flat the past two seasons, the Braves made a flurry of moves to put themselves back among the favorites heading into spring training. No one addition was particularly huge — and questions remain in their unaddressed rotation, especially now that Spencer Schwellenbach is back on the IL — but Raisel Iglesias was re-signed as closer, with Robert Suarez added as an overqualified setup man. Ha-Seong Kim was brought back to play shortstop, and although he was almost immediately injured, Mauricio Dubón, Jorge Mateo, and Kyle Farmer were brought in as alternatives. Mike Yastrzemski, because he’s a lefty who can play the field, might be a better fit than departed DH Marcell Ozuna. Jonah Heim provides fresh catching depth while Sean Murphy recovers from hip surgery. As it has been the past two years, health might be the biggest X factor in Atlanta, but the Braves once again have championship upside.
New York Mets
Last year: 83-79, missed playoffs by a tiebreaker
World Series odds: 7.7 percent
One notable loss: 1B Pete Alonso
One notable addition: 3B Bo Bichette
Trying something new
Pete Alonso, Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte were important pieces of the Mets’ recent return to postseason relevance, and all departed this offseason. Nimmo and McNeil were traded — Nimmo in a need-for-need swap for second baseman Marcus Semien — while Alonso and Díaz were free agents who signed within hours of one another, only to be essentially replaced by new third baseman Bo Bichette, new presumptive first baseman Jorge Polanco, and a pair of former Yankees closers, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. Adding two more splashes: the Mets traded for former Brewers ace Freddy Peralta and former White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. The result is a thoroughly reimagined Mets team with the fourth-best World Series odds in baseball.
Philadelphia Phillies
Last year: 96-66, first in NL East
World Series odds: 4.9 percent
One notable loss: SP Ranger Suárez
One notable addition: RF Adolis García
Familiar faces, familiar foes
The Phillies’ biggest needs were a big bat and a proven catcher, and they got arguably the two best on the free agent market — they just happened to be their own free agents. Bringing back Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto were near necessities, but they weren’t necessarily upgrades. To improve, the Phillies signed right fielder Adolis García and reliever Brad Keller, and they’ll cross their fingers that Zach Wheeler returns from thoracic outlet surgery as good as new (worth remembering, too, that they’ll now have a full year of trade deadline acquisition Jhoan Duran, and this might finally be the year for touted prospect Andrew Painter). It’s mostly a familiar-looking Phillies team, up against their usual AL East competition from the Braves and Mets.
Chicago Cubs
Last year: 92-70, first wild card
World Series odds: 3.8 percent
One notable loss: RF Kyle Tucker
One notable addition: 3B Alex Bregman
Big losses, big additions
The Cubs lost the market’s top free agent (Kyle Tucker) but replaced him with the third-best (Alex Bregman). Standout setup man Brad Keller was among a handful of pitching losses, but the Cubs managed to keep Shota Imanaga with a qualifying offer and supplemented by trading for starter Edward Cabrera and signing relievers Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Hoby Milner and Jacob Webb. One notable prospect (Owen Cassie) was traded to Miami, but another (Moisés Ballesteros) is poised to get a long look at DH. Young third baseman Matt Shaw has moved into a high-upside bench role, while 34-year-old Tyler Austin was given a late-career big-league job after a potent six years in Japan. PECOTA has the Cubs, Mets and Braves basically neck-and-neck for the second-best record in the National League.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year: 71-91, fifth in NL Central
World Series odds: 1.7 percent
One notable loss: SP Mike Burrows
One notable addition: 2B Brandon Lowe
Real, actual, recognizable additions
The Pirates have had one winning record in the past 10 years (even then, they were just 82-79 and finished in fourth place). They notoriously don’t spend in free agency and rarely make anything resembling a splash, but this winter, the Pirates gave Ryan O’Hearn $29 million and traded young talent — most notably, pitcher Mike Burrows — to land potent second baseman Brandon Lowe and a couple of role players from the Rays. They traded another starter, Johan Oviedo, to get a young, big-league-ready outfielder (Jhostynxon Garcia) from the Red Sox. They added veterans Josê Urquidy and Gregory Soto to their pitching staff and all but officially moved on from Andrew McCutchen by signing Marcell Ozuna. Building around Paul Skenes, the Pirates have probably not made themselves legitimate contenders, but they’re as relevant as they’ve been in a decade. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA are giving them slightly better World Series odds than the Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Last year: 97-65, lost in NLCS
World Series odds: 1.6 percent
One notable loss: SP Freddy Peralta
One notable addition: SP Brandon Sproat
Threading the needle
For the past decade, the Brewers have been one of the most consistently successful franchises in baseball. But as a small market team with limited payroll, they’re constantly balancing short-term opportunity with long-term sustainability. To that end, yet again, they’ve traded one of their best players, sending No. 1 starter Freddy Peralta to the Mets (along with swingman Tobias Myers) for a package of prospects, including starting pitcher Brandon Sproat and versatile Jett Williams, each of whom could play a Major League role this season. They also traded third baseman Caleb Durbin to the Red Sox for a package that included lefty starter Kyle Harrison. The Brewers re-signed Brandon Woodruff, who’s now their ace; they traded left fielder Isaac Collins for lefty reliever Angel Zerpa, and they signed a couple of backup catchers (Reese McGuire and Gary Sánchez) and a new bat-first infielder (Luis Rengifo) as they try to stay on course following an MLB-best, 97-win season.
San Francisco Giants
Last year: 81-81, third in NL West
World Series odds: 1.3 percent
One notable loss: SP Justin Verlander
One notable addition: CF Harrison Bader
Boring practicality
It was The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee who came up with the term “boring practicality” to describe the Giants’ offseason. They had holes in the outfield and middle infield, and signed Harrison Bader and Luis Arraez (Nos. 32 and 33 on the Big Board). They needed rotation depth and signed Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser (solid No. 3-4 starters behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray). They also have a full year of Rafael Devers after trading for him in the middle of last season. The Giants’ offseason wasn’t sexy, but it might have raised their floor by filling holes and creating both depth and flexibility. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA have them slightly above .500 and in the mix for a wild-card spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last year: 80-82, fourth in NL West
World Series odds: 1.0 percent
One notable loss: OF Jake McCarthy
One notable addition: 3B Nolan Arenado
Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks found their way back to each other. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Mix of old and new
At one point, there seemed to be a chance the Diamondbacks were going to trade Ketel Marte, but they stopped short of such a dramatic change. Instead, the Diamondbacks brought back two familiar starting pitchers (Merrill Kelly, who they traded at last year’s deadline, and Zac Gallen, who initially turned down a qualifying offer). They also signed a less familiar arm (Michael Soroka), took on a salary dump (Nolan Arenado), traded away a couple of redundant bench players (Blaze Alexander, Jake McCarthy), brought in a veteran first baseman (Carlos Santana) and brought back a veteran reliever (Paul Sewald). So, it’s a familiar Diamondbacks core with some new wrinkles at the edges (and with an early-season injury to Corbin Carroll). Is that enough to stay afloat while they hope to get Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. back from surgery in the second half? PECOTA is definitely not sold, projecting the Diamondbacks and Marlins to finish with similar records.
San Diego Padres
Last year: 90-72, second wild card
World Series odds: 0.7 percent
One notable loss: SP Dylan Cease
One notable addition: UT Sung-Mun Song
Spinning their tires
The Padres’ biggest offseason contract went to Michael King, who’s a very good pitcher (the No. 12 free agent on the Big Board), but he’s also a re-signing, and thus not exactly an upgrade. Upgrades, in fact, were few and far between for the Padres this winter. Luis Arraez is gone, and Miguel Andujar is in. Mason Miller and JP Sears are back after being acquired at last year’s trade deadline, but Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez are gone, and Yu Darvish might never pitch again. Korean utility man Sung-Mun Song is getting his first shot in the Majors, Nick Castellanos is looking for a fresh start after his Phillies release, Griffin Canning could round out the rotation, and Joe Musgrove is back from surgery. Is that enough to make a difference? FanGraphs isn’t buying it, projecting the Padres to have their second losing record in seven years. PECOTA is slightly more bullish, but not by much.
Cincinnati Reds
Last year: 83-79, third wild card
World Series odds: 0.5 percent
One notable loss: SP Nick Martinez
One notable addition: DH Eugenio Suárez
One big signing (with a lot of smaller moves)
There were a lot of moving pieces, and it seems the Reds basically did what they set out to do. They added offense with Eugenio Suárez (the No. 16 free agent on the Big Board). Their defense should be better with a full year of Ke’Bryan Hayes (acquired at last year’s deadline). And they refilled their bullpen (by re-signing Emilio Pagán and adding Brock Burke, Pierce Johnson and Celeb Ferguson). JJ Bleday, Dane Myers, Garrett Hampson and Michael Toglia are also in, but Gavin Lux, Zack Littell, Austin Hayes and Scott Barlow are also out. It’s a decent amount of change, but does it amount to anything? Although the Reds sneaked into the playoffs last season, both FanGraphs and PECOTA are projecting them to have a losing record this season.
St. Louis Cardinals
Last year: 78-84, fourth in NL Central
World Series odds: 0.1 percent
One notable loss: 2B Brendan Donovan
One notable addition: SP Dustin May
Openly and actively rebuilding
The Cardinals made their plans clear and then followed through by trading starter Sonny Gray (to the Red Sox), first baseman Willson Contreras (also to the Red Sox), second baseman Brendan Donovan (to the Mariners) and third baseman Nolan Arenado (to the Diamondbacks). Most of what they got back is unlikely to make an immediate impact — a couple of former Red Sox starters, Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins, might be exceptions — as the Cardinals instead cleared the way to give their own young big leaguers a chance to prove themselves. Starter Dustin May and reliever Ryne Stanek were signed as upside veterans (and potential mid-summer trade chips), but this is unmistakably a rebuilding year, and perhaps the last chance for former first-round picks Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman to earn their keep as a part of the Cardinals’ future.
Miami Marlins
Last year: 79-83, third in NL East
World Series odds: 0.1 percent
One notable loss: SP Edward Cabrera
One notable addition: RP Pete Fairbanks
Pitching to give
This wasn’t an all-out, everything-must-go fire sale, but the Marlins unmistakably made some rebuilding-type moves, trading from their relatively strong rotation (Edward Cabrera to the Cubs, Ryan Weathers to the Yankees) to add young talent (most notably, new right fielder Owen Caissie). The Marlins made smaller trades of Eric Wagaman and Dane Myers and made one recognizable signing (former Rays closer Pete Fairbanks) amid a handful of cheaper pickups that might have upside (Christopher Morel, Esteury Ruiz, Chris Paddack, Bradley Blalock). Maybe the Marlins are starting to build a core — their starting lineup is made almost entirely of trade acquisitions — but this season still feels like a countdown until they continue the rebuild by trading former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
Washington Nationals
Last year: 66-96, fifth in NL East
World Series odds: 0.0 percent
One notable loss: SP MacKenzie Gore
One notable addition: C Harry Ford
Committing to the future
Last winter, the Nationals tried a bunch of stopgap additions — Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, Michael Soroka, Paul DeJong, Colin Poche — none of which did much to make the team remotely competitive. This winter, the Nats fully committed to a rebuild, trading No. 1 starter MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers (most notably for top-100 prospect Gavin Fien) and reliever José A. Ferrer to the Mariners (for first-round catcher Harry Ford). They also took a flyer on 30-year-old Foster Griffin, who spent the past three years as a successful starter in Japan. James Wood and CJ Abrams are back, but the Nationals are clearly focused on the future. Their late addition of Miles Mikolas seemed to be about survival as much as anything, just adding enough innings to get through the season.
Colorado Rockies
Last year: 43-119, worst record in MLB
World Series odds: 0.0 percent
One notable loss: SP Germán Márquez
One notable addition: 3B Willi Castro
New front office starts small
Experiencing the worst extended stretch in franchise history, the Rockies’ biggest move this offseason was to replace former general manager Bill Schmidt with veteran executive Paul DePodesta. The immediate roster fallout wasn’t massive, but the Rockies did move on from longtime starter Germán Márquez and faded prospect Michael Toglia. They also signed veterans Willi Castro, Michael Lorenzo, José Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano, and made smaller trades for Jake McCarthy, Edouard Julien and Brennan Bernardino (cheap big leaguers who had become redundant elsewhere). The Rockies have yet to truly rebuild, but have potential chips in Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Mickey Moniak should they ever commit to starting over.