The seeds of the 2026 Major League season are being planted in Jupiter, Florida. With that comes the annual exercise of trying to sluth out who will make the initial cut and be rewarded with riding around the warning track in a Ford-sponsored vehicle following the Clydsdales, the “poop scoop troop,” and Cardinals Hall of Famers. Perhaps an exercise in futility, but one that provides a snapshot into where the current roster stands and what could be to come. I, by no means, have inside information on what the Cardinals are thinking, nor do I expect to be 100% correct in this process. However, I will still attempt this with blissful ignorance and a belief that I have a solid feel for the pulse of the team. This will be evidenced in a post later next month where my (somewhat) bold offseason predictions post managed to get a lot more right than wrong this time around! (nice tease, Jake)
With that being said, let’s take a plunge into one of the scariest imaginative places that may or may not exist,(insert existential crisis here) my mind.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 17: Iván Herrera #48 of the St. Louis Cardinals bats in a run on a fielding error by the Cincinnati Reds in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on September 17, 2025 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) Getty Images
2B JJ WetherholtSS Masyn Winn1B Alec BurlesonC Ivan Herrera (pictured)3B Nolan GormanRF Jordan WalkerDH Nelson VelazquezLF Jose FerminCF Victor Scott II
Rationale: Let’s start with everyone’s favorite top prospect, JJ Wetherholt. Last season in AAA, in 221 PA, Wetherholt posted a .416 OBP, .366 xwOBA, 12.7 BB%, and a chase% of only 18.6%. That’s a prototypical lead-off man profile in modern baseball, and while Manager Oli Marmol has traditionally been slow to work young players into more prominent roles, this is an exception to that rule. When Oli speaks of JJ, it’s with confidence and excitement, and he doesn’t hide how impressed he is with his poise and maturity at such a young age. I’m expecting an impressive spring performance that will land him in the leadoff spot on opening day.
I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Herrera land in the 2 spot in the lineup either; however, I also see Herrera as the most reliable RH power bat in the lineup, and protecting Burleson makes more logical sense to me. So, I’ll slot Masyn Winn into that 2 spot with the raw ability to be a 20-20 type player at his peak offensively, a proven track record of 2 strike approach, and the ability to shorten up and hit the ball through the right side behind runners on 1st, allowing them to go 1st-3rd to manufacture runs, I think Oli will put a healthy Masyn Winn as another table setter type in front of the big bats to come in that 2 spot.
Burleson, a 2025 Silver Slugger award winner and the most consistent LH bat last season, not named Brendan Donovan (still sad), figures to be in that 2-3-4 mix for the lineup all season long. Not much more to say other than this is where every Cardinals fan should expect to see him in the lineup on an everyday basis. Herrera at 4, as I mentioned earlier, is the best option at the 2 or 4 spot in the lineup, but with Oli’s belief in Masyn Winn as an offensive piece, and to an extent, myself included, Herrera’s potent power will protect the top of the lineup and clean up whatever chaos-like mess they create in front of him.
Nolan Gorman at 5 isnt that controversial, especially given the lack of proven talent on the roster. I expect Gorman will play a healthy amount of 3B this season, but I also don’t expect him to play there 130 times this year. Gorman’s value lies in his bat and his threat to do damage with exceptional raw power. I believe that will be the Cardinals’ primary ask of him in 2026. Gorman increased his walk rate last season, and that should allow him to find more consistency AND more hittable pitches. Consistency is the big X factor for Gorman, and my favorite stat to point to from 2025 is his month-by-month wRC+ (where 100 is league average:) March/April – 76, May – 45, June – 142, July – 110, August – 105, September – 24. Massive peaks and valleys for Gorman, and as a “driver of offense,” months like May and September can not happen. You can live with a March/April month here and there, but being between 55 and 76 percent below league average is unacceptable.
Jordan Walker at 6 feels reasonable. Not a ton of pressure on him at that spot, but enough at-bats to where he will have a chance to make an impact on games and provide depth of offense, assuming the offseason work he has put in sticks, and he can re-establish a footing at the MLB level. I’m not asking Jordan Walker to be anything more than a 95-100 wRC+ player this year. Just get to an average player and build on it from there.
Alright, 7 and 8, this is where I think the most fluctuation is probable to occur. We have no idea of a timetable for Lars Nootbaar, and for now, I’m projecting he starts the season on the IL, and that would be a prudent decision on the part of the Cardinals front office. If the hope is to trade Nootbaar at some point, either at the deadline or in the offseason, you need. him. to. be. HEALTHY. From other sources of reporting, we have learned that this “Haglund’s deformities” condition and the subsequent procedure that involves correcting it tend to leave the Achilles tendon in a more vulnerable state initially. Needless to say, if Lars ruptures one or both Achilles, you can kiss ANY trade value goodbye, and perhaps could end Nootbaar’s career. Therefore, the smartest route would be to slow-play and strengthen him, and if he doesn’t make a season debut until the end of May? So what. If Lars is healthy, he’s productive. If he’s productive, he’s an asset that teams will want. True, if not at the deadline, the value will go down, but less value in the offseason would be more ideal than no value, and a career-threatening injury to a player fans have an emotional attachment to.
Enter Nelson Velazquez and Jose Fermin, an under-the-radar candidate in Velazquez, who has the raw power to impress in spring and potentially win a job going into the season. Velázquez is in camp on a minor league deal and an NRI. He does have big league experience and has popped 31 HR in his limited big league career. If the Cardinals are unable to lure in a more proven RH bat to play the OF, Velazquez has the type of raw power from a corner spot that the Cardinals’ offense would be desperate to have. If worst comes to worst and he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, he starts the season at AAA and could be a depth option at some point in the season. Jose Fermin enters 2026 as a player with a slight edge in the left field conversation as Manager Oli Marmol utilized him more and more down the stretch of the 2025 season, and with solid plate discipline from the right side, he would make an effective place holder for when Nootbaar is ready to return.
Victor Scott II will be the everyday CF in 2026. I know those of you who are skeptical will roll your eyes, and I understand why you should expect more. Vic expects more from himself, and the Cardinals have spent this pre-season period really trying to pump Scott up to the media, and we will see what improvements offensively he has made, as he told us at Winter Warm Up he completely re-built his swing from the ground up with the help of those who understand bio-mechanics and said he was very ineffecient with his swing. Much like Jordan Walker, another player who was brought to the big leagues before he was ready, Scott has been mired in adjustment after adjustment the last 2 seasons, just trying to figure out who he is as a hitter. This season, I ask of him the same thing I do of Walker: try to be average or slightly below, and they can build on that going forward.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – SEPTEMBER 24: Yohel Pozo #63 of the St. Louis Cardinals takes batting practice prior to the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Wednesday, September 24, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Kavin Mistry/MLB Photos via Getty Images) MLB Photos via Getty Images
C Pedro PagesC/1B/DH Yohel Pozo (pictured)INF/OF Thomas SaggeseINF/OF Bryan Torres
Rationale: The Cardinals didn’t trade one of their catchers this offseason, and while that will likely leave some frustrated with how the catching situation plays out, it’s entirely predictable how it will be deployed, and Cardinals fans should probably make their peace with that now. Pages is a good defensive catcher; he has a strong arm, an advanced pitch-calling acumen, and the trust of the pitching staff that works with him. Those are all positive traits for a big league catcher. He may never hit enough to be considered a great everyday catcher, but Cardinals fans shouldn’t spurn good because it’s not great. I can see where Herrera gets 50 games behind the plate, Pozo gets 30-ish, and contributes as a pinch hitter, and Pages gets the other 80 or so.
Thomas Saggese has the opportunity to fill the Brendan Donovan/Tommy Edman role, where he just plays all over the field and is a consistent presence. Force feels like the wrong word for what he’s accomplished so far, but the former 2023 Texas League MVP has enough raw power to be more than what he’s shown. Saggese has some Alec Burleson to his game, where both hitters can make contact with just about any pitch in any zone. Opposing pitchers can exploit this and cause Saggese to chase out of the zone and get himself out. The key I’m looking for Saggese to take the next step forward is being more selective in his approach and hunting damage in the zone.
Bryan Torres from the left side in 414 PA at AAA last season hit .328/.441/.464 -> .905 OPS and a 147 wRC+. He also walked more than he struck out, and he has very little in the way of power, but he is a real pest at the plate, and one that big league pitchers will likely have no desire to face.
I expect Nathan Church to begin the season at AAA as the starting CF between Chase Davis in LF and Joshua Baez in RF, and Church should be the first man up if there is an injury to the outfield mix. Jimmy Crooks and Leo Bernal will split time at AAA and provide valuable depth to the big league club. IF Herrera is deemed not to be a capable MLB catcher early on (unlikely at this point), it might change the way Crooks’ 2026 season looks.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI – SEPTEMBER 3: Matthew Liberatore #52 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch against the Athletics in the first inning at Busch Stadium on September 3, 2025 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) Getty Images
SP1 Matthew Liberatore (pictured)SP2 Dustin MaySP3 Michael McGreevySP4 Andre PallanteSP5 Richard FittsSP6/MIRP Kyle Leahy
Analysis: Barring injury (knock on wood), Matthew Liberatore is the frontrunner for the opening day start. When asked about it, he will play coy and say, “It’s just another start.” But make no mistake about it, an opening day start is an honor for MLB pitchers, and it’s one that he has admitted he wants. Dustin May comes in as the number 2 starter and has the chance to make himself a lot of money this season if he is able to re-capture some of what made him an exciting high-end prospect in the early 2020’s. After an offseason of adding strength and weight back from a horrific esophageal tear that nearly cost him his life, May has the chance to really boost the ceiling of this Cardinals rotation. Michael McGreevy comes into 2026 with what appears to be a locked-in spot for the rotation after having to wait out the Erick Fedde collapse, and subsequent bungling of that whole situation last year by the previous front office regime, which has him in pole position for that number 3 spot in the rotation.
At the SP4 spot is where things start to get interesting. Andre Pallante knows last season was not nearly good enough, and he explained away some of the issues regarding the mid-season evaporation of his command. Exiting the 2024 season, outside of Sonny Gray, most Cardinals fans would’ve told you that the next starter they had the most confidence in was Andre Pallante. He told us at Winter Warm Up that he was extremely fatigued at the end of the 2024 season and took a longer-than-normal rest period to fully heal, and that caused him to be behind in his build-up for the 2025 season. We didn’t see him get back to his average FB velocity until the first week of the season, which he admitted affected him mechanically, in turn affecting his command and feel for release point on his pitches. Assuming Pallante has a normal ramp-up period this spring, and the addition of a “Kick Change.” We could see a much better version of Pallante this season, thus raising the floor for a Cardinals team we’re skeptical can win 70+ games.
I’ll give Richard Fitts the inside track at the SP5 spot in the rotation. I really like his pitch mix featuring 6 distinct shapes and his ability to sit mid 90’s on his fastball, which gives him a little extra upside. Fitts also has a more recent track record of performance as a starting pitcher, and I think that puts him slightly ahead of Leahy. Speaking of Leahy, I see him filling that Steven Matz role from a season ago, where he will be the 6th starter at the beginning of the season. The Cardinals had great success with pitcher health last season implenting a 6-man rotation early in the season to build in additional rest. Manager Oli Marmol told us at Winter Warm Up that just because it’s the beginning of the season doesn’t mean the ramp-up stops. Guys are still building up at that point, and a lot of arm injuries occur for teams in the first month of the season when the team or the player pushes themselves too hard too soon. The Cardinals want Leahy to come in built up as a starter. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee Leahy a rotation spot, but it allows him the opportunity to compete for one. This role would also allow Leahy to continue being a weapon out of the pen, and rather than throwing a side session, have an extended appearance between starts to try and impact a game from a multi-inning relief standpoint.
Hunter Dobbins still appears to be working his way back from the ACL tear he suffered last season, and I expect he will impact the big league rotation at some point this season, but, similar to Nootbaar, I don’t see the need to rush him until he’s 100% ready, and perhaps he fills the McGreevy role from a season ago and is the next man up if there is an injury or if any of the starters just completely fall apart early in the season. Quinn Matthews is another name that is near MLB-ready but will likely need to show improved command in AAA and try to build on a solid final 6 weeks of the season last year. I also expect the possibility of an Ixan Henderson (if healthy) or Brycen Mautz debut in 2026, but probably not until August or September. I have little to no expectation that we see Liam Doyle in St. Louis in 2026, but he could follow a similar path to current top prospect, JJ Wetherholt, this season, finishing the season in AAA and ready to win a big league job in 2027.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI – AUGUST 27: Matt Svanson #49 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on August 27, 2025 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) Getty Images
CL Riley O’BrienSU JoJo Romero (L)SU Matt Svanson (pictured)MRP Ryne StanekMRP Justin Bruihl (L)MRP George SorianoMRP Matt Pushard (R5)
Analysis: I’m giving Riley O’Brien the inside track to the closer’s role in 2026. At the 2025 Winter Warm-Up event, I asked former closer Ryan Helsley who he could see filling his shoes if his tenure came to a close in St. Louis, and his vote was Riley O’Brien. That type of vote of confidence from a peer, who was at the top of the game in that role, makes you pay attention. Nobody can deny the raw stuff O’Brien can bring, and last season, O’Brien found success and subsequent confidence that he belonged at the big league level. I’m looking for O’Brien to carry that over into the WBC and thus launch into the season on a mission.
Many seem surprised to see JoJo Romero still on the roster entering spring training. I would say it’s a mild surprise, but not a shocker by any means. Surface-level analysis and a 2.07 ERA would make fans think he would be in high demand. Not so much, we saw LHRP like Matt Strahm, Jose Ferrer, and Angel Zerpa be traded this offseason. Among 33 LHRP last season who pitched a minimum of 60 innings, JoJo Romero ranked 2nd in ERA, 13th in FIP (3.28), 27th in xFIP (4.12), 23rd in K% (21.6%), 29th in BB% (11.4%), 29th in K-BB% (10.2%), 20th in WHIP (1.25), 21st in LOB% (75.8%), and 30th in ERA – FIP differential (-1.22) It became obvious that after weeks had gone by since that run on lefty relievers was over, Romero was not in high enough demand to get moved. That can obviously change with a strong first half, and as a rental reliever, those are always in demand of playoff bound teams.
I think Matt Svanson took huge steps forward last season, and perhaps if the Cardinals cash in on Romero, Stanek, and O’Brien at the deadline, that Svanson could be the primary closer the 2nd half of the season and for the next 4+ seasons in St. Louis. Upper 90’s FB with Sink and a hard-biting slider with high leverage success to boot, he has the potential ingredients to be a successful closer. Ryne Stanek is the “veteran” reliever the Cardinals have begun a trend of identifying and elevating, between Andrew Kittredge in 2024 and Phil Maton in 2025. Ryne Stanek and his high 90’s heat hopes to be the next successful reliever in that lineage, and the Cardinals could benefit by trading him to a contender at the deadline to further add to their growing farm system.
Justin Bruihl, George Soriano, and Matt Pushard are all newcomers to the group who have the inside track to opening day roles in the bullpen. Bruihl, the projected 2nd lefty in the pen, has some John King to him, but with a little better secondary offering against LHH to generate more swing and miss than King did. George Soriano, acquired in a deal last week for Andre Granillo, was a bit of a head scratcher at first, but when you look at the raw data on his stuff, you see an above-average slider with over 2700 RPM of spin, 2 distinct fastballs that sit mid 90’s, and a change-up with really good depth as an option against opposite handed batters. He is out of options, however, which is still the biggest question mark about the deal, further limiting the roster flexibility. Matt Pushard was the Cardinals’ Rule 5 selection back in December, and while nothing is guaranteed, it only costs 50K to offer him back to Miami. Mid-90’s fastball and 3 distinct breaking ball shapes with above average spin and a changeup allowed him to chew up AAA hitters last season, and this could be a truly underrated piece to the Cardinals’ bullpen in 2026.
Gordon Graceffo, Chris Roycroft, Ryan Fernandez, the recently re-acquired Zak Kent, Scott Blewett, Packy Naughton, Nick Raquet, all have big league experience and will provide depth to the big league club, but with limited flexible spots at the big league level, many of these guys probably won’t get their chance until the 2nd half of the season, after the Cardinals sell off the afformentioned veterans at the back end. Luis Gastelum is another name to keep an eye on. He has a Tommy Kahnle-like arsenal with a devastating changeup that has true outlier capabilities and could make his debut in 2026, and will be on display for Team Mexico in the WBC. Perhaps if they pitch out of their minds at AAA, we could also see debuts from Austin Love or Skylar Hales, but there’s too much uncertainty there to project that with any type of confidence at this stage.
There is a TON to be excited about this year and a lot of moving parts to this roster, and at the upper minors, the Cardinals may lack multiple true high-end talents at the big league level to give them the ceiling of a playoff team. They do have a lot more intriguing depth than they’ve had in a while, and that should excite some Cardinals fans. Unless you’re one of those who only care about winning, in which case, watch Memphis, I think they’re set up to be a PROBLEM in the International League this year.
The ground is thawing in St. Louis, full squads have reported to spring training, were closing in on Spring games being played, and the WBC is just around the corner. Who knows what the Cardinals’ season has in store, but if you’re an obsessed baseball sicko like I am, baseball is almost back, and all will be right with the world once more! A lot of interesting spring battles are about to take place, and we will have all the angles covered here on Viva El Birdos, in written and podcast form!