Five bold predictions for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals

JUPITER, Fla. – At long last, spring training is underway and the 2026 season is coming into focus for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pitchers and catchers officially reported to the St. Louis Cardinals spring camp Wednesday in Jupiter, Florida, with the rest of the roster expected to arrive this week.

After missing the postseason for the third consecutive season, the Cardinals enter spring camp with a new identity and perhaps overlooked. The Cardinals moved several veterans in cost-cutting moves and pivoted toward a youth-driven roster. The organization has also renewed an emphasis on player development under new lead front-office executive Chaim Bloom.

As spring training begins, it’s a good time to look ahead at what 2026 might have in store for the St. Louis Cardinals. Here are five bold predictions for the new season:

1) Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy each make 30 starts this season

The Cardinals no longer have Sonny Gray leading the starting rotation and Miles Mikolas on the back end, creating an opportunity and necessity for younger arms to take ownership. While the Cardinals have many intriguing pitching prospects on the horizon, most notably Quinn Mathews and Liam Doyle, not many are quite ready to make an immediate jump to the majors.

That turns attention to Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy, two stabilizing forces in last season’s rotation that dealt with inconsistencies. The duo made a combined 45 starts with ERAs of 4.21 and 4.42, both right around league average. Both also proved capable of working deep into games, reaching six innings in around half of their starts. A fully healthy starting pitcher usually makes 32 starts in any given season. If the Cardinals are serious about building a sustainable foundation in the rotation, Liberatore and McGreevy must step up and prepare for heavier workloads.

2) Alec Burleson finishes with a 100 RBI season

Alec Burleson has made steady offensive improvements in each of his first three full big-league seasons, most impressively with his on-base plus slugging percentage-plus rating (OPS+) rising from 87 to 105 to 125. The metric indicates he was getting on base and slugging around 25% better than the average player last year. The growth in that department alone suggests that Burleson is entering his prime.

Once again, he’ll be asked to raise the bar again this season, particularly in run production in a lineup with Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. Burleson is expected to settle into the heart of the lineup, likely hitting second, third or cleanup, all spots of ample opportunity to drive in runners.

In smaller sample sizes throughout his college, minor-league and major-league career, Burleson has averaged around one RBI per game, including a hot stretch in 2024 where he had 35 over 27 games. The past two seasons, Burleson has averaged 74 RBIs over 146 games played. At the pace of a full 162-game schedule, he would have 83 RBI per season. So pushing for triple-digits is ambitious, but would help him firmly establish a place as the Cardinals’ lineup tone-setter.

3) JJ Wetherholt wins NL Rookie of the Year

The Cardinals cleared their infield logjam this winter with one big goal in mind: Creating a runway for JJ Wetherholt, one of the team’s most dynamic prospects in recent years and MLB Pipeline’s fifth highest-rated prospect.

Wetherholt enters camp with a legitimate chance to claim the starting second base job for Opening Day. After hitting .306 with 17 home runs, 59 RBI and 23 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Wetherholt showed the poise and skillset of a hitter who may not need much time to adjust to big-league pitchers.

While Wetherholt’s development to this point has been primarily at shortstop, Masyn Winn is locked into that job with his elite defense. The move to second base should be less burdensome defensively than the other open spot at third base, giving Wetherholt a chance to further focus on his hitting craft. Wetherholt has been praised for his bat-to-ball skills, baseball IQ, and plate discipline. Competition for NL Rookie of the Year could be fierce, especially if Pittsbrugh’s Konnor Griffin and New York’s Nolan McLean make big strides, but if Wetherholt seizes an everyday role out of camp, he will have a real shot of becoming the first Cardinals honoree since Albert Pujols in 2001.

4) Lars Nootbaar will be moved by this season’s trade deadline

Lars Nootbaar, the longest-tenured active Cardinal, is preparing for his sixth season in St. Louis. Based on his experience and clubhouse energy, he would likely be penciled as the starting leftfielder on Opening Day, However, durability remains a concern, and Nootbaar could begin the season on the injured list while recovering from offseason surgery from chronic Haglund’s deformities, causing significant pain in his foot.

When healthy, Nootbaar provides critical on-base skills and lineup versatility. But he’s missed significant time the past three seasons – around 150 games – with a variety of injuries from thumb issues, rib fractures and oblique strains.

Nootbaar could be a free agent after the 2027 season, and there’s a chance that next year’s MLB campaign could be interrupted due to player labor negotiations. With Nootbaar, the Cardinals also have a wealth of left-handed big-league hitters, and that would only continue with Wetherholt’s arrival. Given all of these factors, plus the Cardinals still being in the early stages of a roster rebuild, the Cardinals will likely at least entertain offers on Nootbaar and see if they can maximize value. Many contenders will likely look for controllable outfield help midseason.

5) Cardinals will not finish last place in the NL Central

Projection systems have not been kind for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. PECOTA, one of baseball’s well-known projection models, predicts a 66-win season for the year’s team, which would be quite a drastic drop from 78 wins last season. PECOTA also predicts the Cardinals to finish last place in the NL Central by a considerable margin with the next closest division rival (the Cincinnati Reds) at 78 projected wins.

On paper, it appears the other four NL Central rivals making calculated moves this offseason in efforts to approve in the immediate future. The Chicago Cubs signed big-name free agent Alex Bregman to play third base and retooled their starting rotation. The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to build around young ace Paul Skenes, preparing to promote top prospects and also adding some supporting bats (including former Cardinal Marcell Ozuna) to help. The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, while not as abundant in moves, made subtle moves that should keep them competitive.

The Cardinals may not hit .500 and likely will miss playoffs for a fourth straight year, but the upcoming 2026 season largely hinges on whether their young core accelerates faster than expected. To certain degrees, the Cubs, Brewers, Reds and Pirates rosters of present are all still unproven. In a division without a clear powerhouse, the margin between fourth place to last place may be thinner than projections imply and the Cardinals certainly have a shot to outperform lowered expectations.

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Five bold predictions for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals

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