Aaron Judge is too good for the projection models.

The New York Yankees‘ superstar is as good as it gets in baseball, coming off an MVP season, and likely to be one of the best players in MLB again.

Before each season, statistical models predict what’s going to come in the new campaign. 

On Thursday, MLB.com shared projected top players for each team this season, and Judge is projected in that for 7.3 Wins Above Replacement.

That’s despite Judge coming off two seasons in a row with 10-plus WAR.

Simply put, the systems can’t handle Judge.

“Judge is hitting .326 with a 1.152 OPS since the beginning of the 2024 season,” MLB.com writes. “He hit 58 home runs in 2024 and followed with 53 in ’25. He’s coming off back-to-back 10+ WAR seasons, and now he’s a batting champ, too. Projection models aren’t built for this, so although he does have the highest projected position-player fWAR in baseball, it’s just as likely an MVP-worthy 43-homer, 7.8-WAR season is underestimating him, even in his age-34 campaign.”

MORE: There’s one question Pirates phenom Konnor Griffin needs to answer

Projections take into account all the possible positive and negative outcomes. They’re meant to hit a middle outcome, not the upside necessarily.

Judge has too much upside for the models. He’s too good.

He might be the greatest right-handed hitter of all time. So that makes him an unprecedented projection in a lot of ways.

It’s safe to expect Judge to be special yet again. That’s simply what he does at this point.

Eventually, time and age may catch up with Judge. Doesn’t seem that way yet, though.

More MLB news: