Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Derek Shelton is going to run things a bit differently this season. The new Minnesota Twins manager has taken more of an old school stance on Spring Training. He recently mentioned having no desire to set a lineup until right before Opening Day.
On the pitching front, there is less to be considered. The MN Twins know they have lost Pablo Lopez for the season, and that forces a “next man up” mentality. Shelton sees the replacement coming in house, and it appears there already may be someone on the inside track.
Rotation picture becoming clearer for Minnesota Twins
Although losing your ace is not ideal, the Minnesota Twins now must operate without Pablo Lopez. That makes Joe Ryan the presumptive number one, and slots Bailey Ober in behind him. Dan Hayes (The Athletic) has mentioned how the final three spots appear to be sorted out.
Technically, the Twins have three open spots in the starting rotation after Pablo López suffered what is likely a season-ending injury Monday. But two of those spots are almost surely earmarked for Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson, pitchers with more major-league experience than the rest. If that’s the case, Matthews is competing with David Festa, Mick Abel and possibly Andrew Morris for the final spot in the Twins’ rotation.
There is little reason to believe Simeon Woods Richardson wouldn’t have a spot earmarked for him. He posted a 4.04 ERA (4.52 FIP) across 111 1/3 innings last season. While those numbers aren’t going to light the world on fire, they’re plenty productive for a back-end starter.
Bradley was brought back in the Griffin Jax trade and has already thrown 385 1/3 at the major league level. He wasn’t good in six starts for the Twins (6.61 ERA), but his 4.73 FIP wasn’t much off from his career average. It’s time for him to take a step forward, and now Minnesota will need him to.
The final four arms competing for one spot have varying degrees of success. Matthews, Festa, and Abel have all thrown at the major league level while Andrew Morris has not. They’ll have Grapefruit League action to sort it out.
Who emerges victorious for MN Twins?
Zebby Matthews might be the most intriguing arm, while Abel once possessed the highest upside. Matthews had a 5.56 ERA last season, but just a 3.79 FIP. With his pitch mix, and velocity, there’s potential for a quality starter in the makeup. He wants it too, but will take the competition as it comes to him.
“As much as you want to have instant success in the league, there’s a lot of guys that struggle at first. Then they kind of find their footing, and they take off. It’s different for everybody. I’m trying to learn from my own experiences (and learn from veterans), when you were struggling early on in your career, you had a really bad start, how did you bounce back? What did you do? What’s the mindset there to kind of keep the confidence, trust your abilities and go out there?”
ZiPS projections have Matthews ticketed for a 3.93 ERA, which is better than both Bailey Ober and Taj Bradley. His 1.8 fWAR checks in fourth among Minnesota Twins starting pitchers. Abel is projected for a 4.46 ERA with Morris at 4.14 and Festa at 4.22.
It seems unlikely that Morris would jump the trio he is lumped in with, but the outcomes for both Festa and Abel are difficult to tie down. Abel has shown he can handle Triple-A (2.20 ERA in 2025), but the success hasn’t translated yet in limited major league exposure.
Minnesota has the benefit of depth on the starting pitching front. They did last year though as well, and exhausted it. They’ll need arms to take another step forward if they’re going to stick in the rotation all year long.
Mentioned in this article: Andrew Morris David Festa Mick Abel Simeon Woods Richardson Taj Bradley Zebby Matthews
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