The Twins and Zebby Matthews had a problem. The righty flashed legitimate strikeout potential in 2024, but the whiffs came with a Blylevian barrage of homers; batters found the stands 11 times across just 37 ⅔ major-league frames. That’s a 58-home run pace across 200 innings. And the type of pitch didn’t matter. The fastball? Obliterated. The cutter? Crushed. Spencer Horwitz even put one on the board against a curveball. Tough. If this trend continued, the team would have to hand out helmets and oversized gloves to fans every day when Matthews pitched.

Unless he wanted to waste his prime years on the Saints, something needed to change. Early tendencies in his pitch mix indicate an evolution is currently underway.

Matthews’s curveball and changeup—which accounted for 15% of his offerings in 2024—have been almost fully abandoned this season, in favor of a four-seam/cutter/slider three-piece selection. He’s thrown the hook and the cambio just seven total times in 152 pitches over two starts. That’s probably a good call. The curve yielded a .385 xwOBA last year, and the change sat at a .365. A league-average number is .327. Remember that you read wOBA like OBP, meaning Matthews turned hitters into Bobby Witt Jr., and Brent Rooker, respectively, with those two offerings. 

For the short term, I think this mix change makes sense. A part of the pitching milieu these days is focused on having hurlers throw as many types of pitches as possible, but if those offerings aren’t cutting it, there’s little point in throwing them. 

The simplified approach has also sharpened his pitches: while the slider and cutter bled into each other at times in 2024, his 2025 plot reveals two solidly separate offerings. Just as saliently, Matthews’s velocity is noticeably up compared to 2024, with his heater sitting at 96.6 MPH and the slider and cutter up a tick, as well. Here’s what he looked like last year.

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And here’s the (you know, hopefully) new and improved version.

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Now, I was concerned his new, tighter movement distribution and more linear approach might make him susceptible to platoon splits. We know that, inside of each pitcher lives two individuals, and who they reveal is based on batter handedness. Indeed, pitchers like Sonny Gray, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober (not Joe Ryan, really, but that’s just how he rolls) throw different pitches based on which batter’s box the hitters step in. 

Matthews doesn’t do that. Or, at least, his measures are less extreme. He trades about 10% of his four-seamers for cutters against lefties, but is otherwise shockingly agnostic on the matter. It’s worked for him, though, because his command of the cutter and slider to lefties has been pristine, and the verticality of his slider makes the pitch less susceptible to platoon splits. Just look at how he turned Brice Turang into mincemeat with the pitch:

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Ok, and we’ll embarrass Vinnie Pasquantino as well:

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So far, Matthews has faced 14 lefties and struck out six of them. He’s also allowed five singles and a walk, but only two of the hits were struck well. I think his process here is especially intriguing, and we should keep an eye on whether he can keep whiffing lefties at such an extreme rate. 

Long term, I’m unsure of the viability of a right-handed pitcher having nothing moving arm-side. The guys who successfully eschew having such an offering—rare in nature, but existing nonetheless—do so by dominating in other ways. Dylan Cease’s slider might be the best in baseball. Nick Pivetta works with an extreme vertical approach and a variety of breaking ball shapes. Can Matthews sharpen his slider to reach Cease’s level? It’s unlikely. I think he’ll need a sinker or a re-worked changeup. Hitters are just too good. They won’t be fooled for long by a small movement profile.

Though his season ERA sits at 7.71, even higher than his 2024 mark, Matthews is not the same pitcher he was last year. His velocity is up. He largely eliminated two impotent offerings. I don’t think it’ll be enough to launch him into dominance, but it should at least allow him to reach a higher level. He looks primed to take a step forward. We shall see what comes next.