Can Dairon Blanco Rebound in 2026? – Royals

One player who should be coming into Royals Spring Training with a lot of motivation is outfielder Dairon Blanco.

After playing in 157 games in 2023 and 2024 combined, he only played in nine games with the Royals last season. Part of that was due to an Achilles injury, which seemed to sap him of his one premium tool (his speed). However, it seemed like manager Matt Quatraro and the Royals preferred Tyler Tolbert in the role that Blanco served in during Quatraro’s first two seasons as Royals manager. 

Tolbert is back with the Royals and seems like a favorite to make the Royals’ Opening Day roster, according to Roster Resource projections. Not only was Tolbert a demon on the basepaths last year (21 stolen bases on 23 attempts), but the 2019 13th-round pick can also play the infield, something Blanco cannot do. 

That said, Royals fans shouldn’t sleep on Blanco completely this Spring Training, especially after he has collected two hits in his first two games in Cactus League play (which includes a single and a double). While he doesn’t have the defensive versatility of Tolbert, Blanco could be an interesting weapon for the Royals again if he’s 100 percent healthy again.

What Blanco Brings to the Royals

From 2023 to 2024, Blanco served as Kansas City’s primary baserunner off the bench. It was for good reason: he was adept on the basepaths, especially when it came to stolen bases. 

Even though he only had 270 plate appearances from 2023 to 2024, Blanco stole 55 bases for the Royals. Over that two-year period, only Bobby Witt Jr. (80) and Maikel Garcia (60) had more stolen bases than Blanco, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, when it came to Statcast’s baserunning “runner runs” metric, Blanco fared quite well. For those unfamiliar with Statcast’s baserunning metrics, below is an outline of what they are and how to read them. 

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What is this? A Statcast metric designed to express the overall value of a baserunner, measured in runs created (or lost) via stealing bases and taking extra bases on the basepaths. 

How this works: “Each steal opportunity is assigned a probability of being successful or not, based on the pitcher and catcher the basestealer is running against. Each successful or failed steal attempt is assigned a run value, with a stolen base or advance via a balk worth +0.2 runs for the baserunner and a caught stealing or pickoff worth -0.45 runs.

For non-steal baserunning plays, an estimated success probability is generated for each opportunity using inputs that include runner speed, outfielder throwing arm, runner position on the basepaths and outfielder distance from both the ball and the bases. That can be translated to a run value based on whether the runner successfully takes the extra base, is thrown out or does not attempt to advance (holds).

How to read it: Baserunning Run Value is a combination of both categories of baserunning — stolen bases and extra bases taken — into one overall value number. 

From 2023 to 2024, much like the stolen base totals, only Witt and Garcia outperformed Blanco in terms of baserunning run value via Statcast. That is shown in the table below. 

Blanco created 7.7 total “runner runs” from 2023 to 2024, with 1.5 of those runs coming on extra bases taken on base hits and 6.2 coming from stolen bases. In fact, his 6.2 stolen base runs total was the highest of Royals players over that two-year span. His mark was 1.1 runs better than Garcia’s and 2.4 runs higher than Witt’s.

While Blanco’s strengths were primarily on the basepaths, he held his own at the plate as a bench outfielder who would get occasional playing time. 

In 138 plate appearances in 2023, he posted a .333 wOBA and 102 wRC+ with three home runs and a 1.2 fWAR. In 132 plate appearances in 2024, he regressed a bit, sporting a .306 wOBA, 96 wRC, and 0.5 fWAR. He also saw some regression defensively, as his outfield FRV went from +5 in 2023 to -1 in 2024. 

That said, when things were clicking, Blanco could get hot at the plate and collect hits and runs in bunches. That was the case on August 17th in 2024, when he had 7 RBI while using a “crayon” bat for Player’s Weekend.

Blanco’s profile wasn’t perfect by any means. His xwOBA underperformed his wOBA in 2023 and 2024 with .302 and .284 marks, respectively. Additionally, even during his respectable 2024 season, the Statcast percentiles were questionable, especially in the exit velocity, hard-hit, and LA sweet-spot percentage categories. Below is a look at his TJ Stats Statcast summary profile from that season. 

Still, when healthy, Blanco was a nice fourth outfielder who may not be able to play regularly, but gave the Royals some nice stretches at the plate from time to time. That ability from Blanco was a nice benefit of his profile, in addition to his strong baserunning. 

What Happened Last Year With Blanco?

Blanco suffered an Achilles injury on March 31st last season and didn’t get reinstated until mid-May. When he returned, his sprint speed went from 30.3 FT/S (feet per second) in 2024 to 29.6 FT/S in 2025. Furthermore, Tolbert emerged as a reasonable option off the bench in Blanco’s absence. In 57 plate appearances, the former UAB product posted a .305 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and 0.3 fWAR. 

When it came to baserunning metrics via Statcast, Tolbert ranked among the best Royals when it came to total runner runs. However, the numbers weren’t as impressive as Blanco’s marks from 2023 to 2024, as seen in the 2025 table below.

Last season, Tolbert was third in total runner runs with a 1.0 mark. He was 6.4 runner runs behind Witt and 0.3 runner runs behind Adam Frazier. Surprisingly, Garcia took a step back in the baserunning category last season. He had a -0.1 total runner runs mark thanks to -1.5 stolen base runner runs. 

As for Blanco, despite the small sample in 2025 (nine games), he still produced 0.2 total runner runs with 0.1 runs in both the extra base and stolen base categories. It’s too small a sample to take anything major away from, but it still shows that Blanco’s baserunning was still a positive for the Royals last year, despite his injury.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go great for Blanco in Omaha last season, where he primarily played. In 295 plate appearances, he hit eight home runs, stole 32 bases (on 35 attempts), posted a .334 wOBA, and 92 wRC+. Much like 2024 with the Royals, the Statcast percentiles weren’t all that impressive either, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary from a season ago.

He pulled the ball better in Triple-A, as his Pull% ranked in the 68th percentile with the Storm Chasers (39.9%). Everything else, however? He only ranked in the 50th percentile or higher in two other categories (Z-Swing% and K%). That’s a bit disappointing for a player who was primarily on the Major League squad in 2023 and 2024. 

Tolbert’s Statcast percentiles last year with the Royals weren’t much more impressive than Blanco’s in 2024, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories. However, the 28-year-old utility player excelled in launch angle, which gives him a bit more upside, especially in Kauffman Stadium’s spacious yard. 

It’s hard to justify Blanco over Tolbert for now, especially since Tolbert stayed healthy and thrived in the “Blanco” role last season (Tolbert’s stolen bases alone justify his roster spot). However, if Blanco can get his hitting approach back in check and recapture that 2024 sprint speed, then he could make a case for an Opening Day roster spot, especially if Tolbert doesn’t look sharp in Cactus League play.

What Needs to Happen This Spring for Blanco?

It’s been a bit of a mixed start for Blanco so far in Cactus League play.

While he has two hits, he also made a defensive blunder in his first outing against the Padres, misplaying a ball in the sun, and got thrown out on a stolen base attempt (also against the Padres). Considering that those are two areas that Quatraro wants to clean up in 2026, those kinds of mistakes aren’t encouraging, even if it’s still early in Spring Training.

Also, in Sunday’s game against the Brewers, Blanco was hit in the head by a pitch and had to leave the game. His status going forward is uncertain. 

While it was promising to see Blanco leave under his own power, getting hit in the head can have devastating effects. Royals fans saw how Jonathan India wasn’t the same after getting hit in the head by then Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase during Opening Day weekend at Kauffman Stadium. Every game counts for Blanco this Spring Training, especially if he wants to be on the roster on Opening Day in Atlanta. 

For Blanco to make the team over Tolbert, he will have to show that his speed is back and that he can hit the ball harder and with more authority than Tolbert. Blanco saw a dramatic drop in xwOBA midway through the 2024 season after promising gains in 2023 and the start of 2024, which can be seen in the rolling chart data below, via Savant.

Should Blanco get back to those more positive trends, it’s plausible to think Quatraro could see him as a nice outfielder option off the bench who can fill in when needed. 

If he can do those two things, he could perhaps justify himself not just as the designated punch runner, but one who could play the corner outfield positions when they face a left-handed starter. The outfield is a bit deeper than it was last year, so the bar is a little bit higher for Blanco in terms of proving he can belong, especially on the offensive end.

The Cuban outfielder isn’t exactly young at 32 (he will be 33 in late April). However, he still remains a stellar athlete and may be the most explosive player on the 40-man roster beyond Witt. While the odds are against him making the Opening Day roster (especially with this latest hit-by-pitch incident), seeing Blanco return to his 2023 and 2024 form would be a nice (and much-needed) success story for the Royals, not just this spring, but in 2026 overall.