The St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation underwent a lot of turnover in the past year. The Cardinals, who are in the middle of a top-to-bottom rebuild, aren’t expected to be competitive in 2026, there’s reason to be optimistic about the current crop of hurlers.

St. Louis has spent the first several Grapefruit League games of spring working through the hurlers who are expected to make the major league rotation. The pitcher predicted to be the team’s Opening Day starter, Matthew Liberatore, was among the most impressive starters early into spring.

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Liberatore showed impressive stuff in his first outing against the Washington Nationals on Feb. 21 in the Cardinals’ spring training opener. He pitched two innings, struck out four, allowed two hits but didn’t issue a walk or allow a run.

According to a post on “X” from Eno Sarris of the Athletic, Liberatore is third in the major leagues in stuff+ (stuff-plus) among starting pitchers this spring.

Stuff+ is an advanced metric that accounts for the physical characteristics of a pitch, which includes factors such as release point, velocity, movement and spin rate.

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Liberatore is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher. He posted a 4.21 ERA and struck out 122 batters in 151.2 innings pitched across 29 starts in 2025. The previous year, he made 60 appearances, 54 of which were out of the bullpen.

The 26-year-old left-handed hurler excelled in his offspeed offerings. He had an offspeed run value of seven, which ranked in the 94th percentile of the major leagues, according to Baseball Savant. He had a walk-rate of 6.2%, which ranked in the 82nd percentile of baseball. Liberatore generated a 29.5% chase rate, which placed him among the 65th percentile of major league pitchers.

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Liberatore was originally picked in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft out of high school by the Tampa Bay Rays. He was acquired by St. Louis in a deal that sent two-time All-Star outfielder, 2021 American League Rookie of the Year and former American League Championship Series MVP Randy Arozarena to the Rays on Jan. 9, 2020.

Liberatore’s high stuff+ numbers in spring highlight the advanced metrics he has on his breaking pitches in his arsenal. If he can refine his full repertoire, he can step into the first-round hype that Tampa Bay expected when they picked him in 2018.

According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals’ major league rotation currently projects to be, in order: Liberatore, Dustin May, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy and Kyle Leahy.

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