Prospect lists serve as both a roadmap and a reminder. They highlight what an organization hopes to become, while also documenting just how unpredictable baseball development can be. When Minnesota Twins fans looked at the top 20 prospects entering the 2021 season, the belief was that the next core of contention was already on the way.
Some of those players have delivered on that promise. Others have fallen short of even modest expectations. A few took entirely different paths than anyone could have envisioned at the time.
Outside the top 10, there were notable hits and misses as well. Bailey Ober checked in at 20th amid questions about his long-term upside, but has become a steady member of the rotation. Matt Wallner was ranked 13th and has likely exceeded what most projected when he joined the organization. Brent Rooker landed at 12th and eventually developed into a multi-time All-Star. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that growth happened elsewhere.
The back half of the top 10, by contrast, has not aged particularly well. Blayne Enlow, Matt Canterino, Aaron Sabato, Keoni Cavaco, and Jordan Balazovic each had intriguing ceilings on draft day. None managed to reach those lofty expectations in a Twins uniform, and collectively, they serve as a cautionary tale about betting on projection over polish.
Let’s look at Twins Daily’s top five from 2021 to see what was said at the time, and what has happened over the last five years.
5. RHP Jhoan Duran
What was said at the time: An intimidating force on the mound with high-90s heat. Will he start?
What happened: No, he did not start. In fact, the Twins moved him to the bullpen after making only five appearances in 2021. He became one of baseball’s most dominant closers. His fastball and splinker reached triple-digit velocities in shorter appearances, something that wasn’t hard to imagine when he started. His tenure in Minnesota ultimately ended when the club dealt him to the Philadelphia Phillies at last year’s trade deadline, in exchange for Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait.
4. C Ryan Jeffers
What was said at the time: Showed his value as a polished two-way asset in MLB breakthrough.
What happened: Jeffers has developed into an above-average hitter, especially when compared to others at his position across the league. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged a 113 OPS+, and his 117 wRC+ ranks second among AL catchers. Defense remains a question, but the Twins appear committed to giving him the bulk of the workload behind the plate in 2026, which will be his final season under team control.
3. OF Trevor Larnach
What was said at the time: Looks the part of a near-ready, well-rounded bat for the heart of the order.
What happened: Larnach’s offensive development hasn’t met the expectations he had as a first-round pick. He posted a 116 OPS+ in 2024, but saw that total dip to 99 in 2025, a rate of production that is unacceptable for a corner outfielder. Injuries and limited defensive value have complicated his role, and his name has consistently surfaced in trade rumors. He has become the embodiment of the post-hype prospect the Twins are waiting to take the next step.
2. SS Royce Lewis
What was said at the time: Twins believe he will stick at short. Stardom is easy to envision. Born leader.
What happened: Multiple serious knee injuries altered that trajectory and pushed him to third base. He has flashed star-level ability, but struggled to maintain consistency as the physical toll has mounted. Over the last two seasons, he’s posted a 93 OPS+. Still, he remains firmly embedded in the organization’s long-term plans, especially after revamping his swing during the winter.
1. OF Alex Kirilloff
What was said at the time: Prolific bat is big-league ready. High ceiling seems imminently reachable.
What happened: There were moments when that optimism looked justified, but injuries ultimately derailed his career. Kirilloff retired following the 2024 season, at only 26 years old. In parts of four seasons, he posted a 99 OPS+, but he leaves behind one of the biggest “what-ifs” in team history.
Prospect rankings are inherently optimistic snapshots. For every success story like Duran or Jeffers, there are several players whose paths never quite align with their potential. Minnesota’s 2021 top 10 illustrates both sides of that reality, and underscores just how difficult it is to translate minor-league promise into sustained major-league production.
What stands out about the team’s 2021 top prospect list? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins’ top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!