The 2026 Minnesota Twins are in Fort Myers, with Vegas projecting a 72.5-win season after last-second front office changes and continued payroll constraints. Then, once everyone got down there, Pablo Lopez tore his UCL during his first live bullpen session and needed season-ending Tommy John surgery. Just before Spring Training started, Joe Ryan was forced to miss his scheduled start as he felt some tightness in his back.

While the MRI came back clean, the team cannot afford to lose any more starting pitchers, especially since David Festa is now dealing with a shoulder injury. Ryan is also the only other pitcher on the team that most would consider an ace. All signs indicate that Ryan will be good to go by Opening Day, but what’s the rush?

The smart play might be to give him time to further heal, after all, he is to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.

Injury history

Since his rookie year, Ryan hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season.

In his first full season, he missed time with COVID-19. In 2023, he had a groin injury followed by a tricep/shoulder injury that removed him from the back end of the abysmal downhill slide in 2024.

Last season, Ryan had his healthiest season yet. He only missed one game due to illness and made an appearance at the All-Star Game. He played a career-high (31) games and posted career-highs in innings pitched (171), ERA (3.42), and wins above replacement (4.5).

The silver lining here is that when healthy, Ryan’s one of the game’s best pitchers. Therefore, the Twins must prioritize his health. They can’t afford to lose the only ace they have this season.

The question then becomes whether he can stay healthy when he’s set to pitch in high-pressure situations before the season even starts.

World Baseball Classic

The WBC takes center stage starting in March.

Joe Ryan is one of the leading faces of Team USA, joining other current and former Twins in this tournament.

Like many other players around the league, Ryan’s competitive edge has allowed him to continue to improve throughout his prime.

Not to say the WBC isn’t important, but if Twins fans learn that Ryan further aggravates his back (or worse), Ryan and the team would face even more scrutiny.

So, who would the Twins start in Ryan’s place?

Other options 

If the Twins decide to withhold Ryan from Opening Day to give him a bit of extra rest, someone needs to step up. Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson are the two most likely options. However, neither is an ace-level pitcher like Ryan or Lopez.

Ober showed flashes last season, with a strong start. A nagging hip injury can be partially to blame for the team’s 11-game losing streak after Ober’s first 11 starts, when the team went 9-2.

Woods Richardson would be the other option if the team wants to lean into deeming this a lost season before it starts to understand what they may have for the future. He’s the only other pitcher guaranteed a 2026 starting role.

After he pitched 6+ innings only three times in 2025, the Twins sent him to the minors. Maybe Woods Richardson becomes a valuable member of the rotation this season.

While Minnesota’s choices other than Ryan are less than ideal, it might be worth holding him out of opening day to ensure that he is fully ready to go once the season gets into full swing.

The starting pitching looked to be the best the team had to offer pre-February, but injuries and inexperience have put that in flux.

Joe Ryan was one of the very few bright spots after the team’s fire sale at the last trade deadline. In the healthiest season of his career, he showed that he was a true ace that the team could rely on.

He’s set to pitch in the World Baseball Classic, then the Twins expect him to pitch on Opening Day. If Team USA makes it to the finals, that would be a nine-day turnaround.

While there should be plenty of time, what if he suffers another injury or the inflammation increases? Does the team trust sending out Ober or Woods Richardson as their opening day starter?

Vegas expects the Twins to be among the worst teams in baseball this season. However, any hope for this club will plummet if Ryan’s injury worsens.