Despite all that’s happened over the last 19 months, the Twins intend to compete for playoff spots—not just in the future, but this season. Owner Tom Pohlad was so clear on that imperative that he was willing to lose president of baseball operations Derek Falvey over it. That makes the situation surrounding Pablo López one of the more fascinating long-term decisions the front office will face in the coming months.

López will miss the entire 2026 season following Tommy John surgery. It will be the second such procedure of his career; the first came more than a decade ago. When he returns, the calendar will read 2027, which also happens to be the final season of the four-year extension he signed after Minnesota acquired him.

The Twins got López from the Miami Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. Since that deal, he has been everything Minnesota hoped for at the top of its rotation. Across three seasons, he posted a 3.68 ERA with elite underlying numbers, including a 26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, and a ground ball rate north of 43%. ERA estimators SIERA and FIP suggest he was even better than the surface-level production indicates.

His 2025 campaign looked like another step forward before injuries began to pile up. López opened the year with a 2.82 ERA through 11 starts, before a Grade 2 teres major strain in early June cost him roughly three months. He returned in September for three sharp outings before finishing the season on the injured list with a minor forearm strain. Minnesota acknowledged at the time that López could have pitched through the issue, had the club been in a playoff race. With the season already lost, however, they chose to play things safe. Unluckily, it didn’t matter.

Now, the Twins must decide whether to wait for proof of health in 2027 or take a more proactive approach.

A recent blueprint exists. The Cleveland Guardians worked out a short-term deal with Shane Bieber that guaranteed him $10 million for 2025, with a $16 million player option for 2026 and a $4 million buyout. The structure allowed Cleveland to maintain upside if Bieber returned to form, while also giving the pitcher financial security as he rehabbed. Bieber was traded to the Blue Jays last summer and exercised his player option in the fall. Minnesota could pursue something similar for López that covers the 2027 and 2028 seasons.

Pros of Extending López
Financial security for the player matters. A new deal would protect López against the uncertainty that comes with returning from a second Tommy John, while also rewarding someone widely viewed as one of the team’s most respected leaders.

From the club’s perspective, there’s an opportunity to buy low. Extending him now rather than after a successful return could result in surplus value if he regains his pre-injury form.

There’s also an element of organizational culture to consider. Extending a player who has embraced the organization both on and off the field would reinforce the message that performance and leadership are valued internally. For an ownership group that has talked about competing annually, backing López would be a tangible sign of that commitment.

Cons of Extending López
There’s an obvious medical risk tied to any pitcher returning from a second elbow reconstruction. Minnesota would be committing future payroll to a player who will be 22 months removed from their last prolonged period of health and availability when next season begins.

Waiting until he proves healthy in 2027 may provide more clarity, even if it comes at a higher price. In the meantime, the Twins will need to allocate resources elsewhere across a roster that already has several key contributors approaching arbitration raises or free agency.

Still, this is the type of decision that reveals how an organization views its competitive timeline. If the Twins believe their window to contend remains open beyond the next two seasons, then extending López now could stabilize the top of the rotation for years to come—while supporting a player who has become one of the franchise’s most trusted voices.

Should the Twins approach López with an extension? Does the Bieber extension fit a potential López deal? Leave a comment and start the discussion.