The day Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reported to the Lee Health Sports Complex in beautiful Fort Myers, Florida, freshly anointed head baseball executive Jeremy Zoll made two noteworthy late-offseason bullpen acquisitions, trading for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda from the Los Angeles Dodgers and signing right-handed reliever Liam Hendriks to a minor-league deal. Two days later, the club signed veteran southpaw Andrew Chafin to a minor-league contract, completing a flurry of mid-February signings designed to improve the club’s bullpen.
Banda, Hendriks, and Chafin join Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze, Travis Adams, Marco Raya, Zak Kent, John Klein, Dan Altavilla, and others competing to fill the eight-pitcher unit. A talent- and depth-deficient unit entering the offseason, Minnesota’s bullpen has become crowded with a mix of veteran and inexperienced candidates, creating one of the more wide-open camp competitions in recent Twins history. Barring injury, Sands, Rogers, and Banda are the only three relievers guaranteed spots in the club’s Opening Day bullpen. If Hendriks and Chafin resemble what they’ve been in seasons past, the two veterans on minor-league deals are favorites to earn spots. The final three spots remain up for grabs as the calendar flips to March, with one aforementioned veteran arm potentially becoming a surprise omission from the club’s Opening Day pen.
Earning a 3.90 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 49-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings pitched, Topa performed well last season. The veteran righty also stepped in as one of the Twins’ most reliable late-inning arms after the front office parted ways with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe at the trade deadline, working his way to a 3.31 ERA and notching four saves from Aug. 1 through Sept. 7. Unfortunately, the then-34-year-old missed the rest of his 2025 campaign after suffering a left oblique strain. Despite the unceremonious end to his first full season with Minnesota, Topa appeared to be a shoo-in for a spot entering the offseason. However, the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s early spring struggles could result in an unexpected end to his Twins’ tenure.
To preface, I want to recognize that I am about to analyze an exceptionally small performance sample of work. I also understand that it is still early March, and there’s a strong likelihood that Topa is still in the “ramp-up” phase of his spring program. Still, his underlying metrics suggest the wily veteran’s days as an effective major-league reliever may be coming to an end, evidenced by the chart below (courtesy of TJStats):
Topa is generating a lot of swings, which is typically a positive sign, especially for relievers. Unfortunately, hitters are making a lot of contact and doing tons of damage upon intercepting the pitch, resulting in a catastrophic zone contact rate and barrel rate. His well-below-average barrel rate is particularly concerning, given that his past success with Seattle and Minnesota was largely the product of missing barrels with his plus sinker and sweeper. If Topa is unable to miss barrels and generate weak contact, he would become an unusable arm, with too many whammies like this one ruining outings of any consequence. Like this:
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Topa’s early struggles are especially concerning given that there is no real dip in his velocity compared to last season. In his two appearances against Boston this spring, there was essentially no change in his sinker, sweeper, cutter, or changeup velocity, compared to his 2025 averages. That being the case, the primary factors behind his 27.00 ERA and 13.47 FIP over 1 2/3 innings pitched are diminished movement and poor command or execution. Again, I understand that I am talking about less than two innings pitched. Yet, given that fellow bullpen candidates Orze, Funderburk, Altavilla, Klein, and Raya (from a stuff perspective) are off to strong starts this spring, Topa and his $1.23-million contract could end up on the chopping block come the end of March, either being designated for assignment or traded to another organization.