This July, Javier Assad will turn 29 years old. A player that old, with as much big-league playing and service time as Assad has, rarely has to face the prospect of being optioned to the minor leagues. Yet, despite having pitched well whenever he’s been healthy enough to do so, that’s exactly what Assad might face this spring. He’s gone from Cubs camp right now, preparing for his stint with Novena México in the World Baseball Classic, and while he’s away, other pitchers will be jockeying for position in the battle for a final spot in the team’s bullpen come Opening Day.
Barring injuries, the starting rotation to begin the season will include Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Colin Rea will be available to move into the rotation in the event of an injury, and can be the long man in the bullpen in the meantime. Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner and Jacob Webb can be kept out of the mix only by injuries, because none of them are eligible to be sent to the minors. Daniel Palencia is thus eligible, but won’t be sent out. That leaves just one spot up for grabs.
Because of his age (and because the team does, at least, have Ben Brown slated to lead the Triple-A Iowa rotation), Assad should get an edge over the other optionable arms in the mix for that job who are already on the 40-man roster. He’s performed well, anyway, albeit in extremely limited looks. Beating out the likes of Luke Little or Jack Neely is no problem for him.
However, the team also has a handful of promising non-roster invitees in camp, bidding for that same spot. Collin Snider, Trent Thornton and Corbin Martin are the biggest names in that mix. If the team doesn’t add one of that group to the 40-man roster (and thus put them on the active big-league list; none of them can be optioned), they could lose them via an opt-out or an upward mobility clause in their contract. Therefore, if any of the three pitch well in Assad’s absence, they could sail right past him and into position to make the roster, with the burly Assad shunted to Iowa.
If it comes down to it, holding onto a player who looks good in camp is worth letting Assad molder a bit longer in the minors. He could also remain stretched out to pitch multiple innings—perhaps even to start, if needed. It’s not the best thing for Assad, at this point in his career, but it could well be the best thing for the Cubs.
So far, the most likely person to supplant Assad seems to be Snider. The low-slot righty has his velocity back, after injuries compromised him last season. He’s averaged 95 miles per hour with his cutting heater, and has looked solid with three flavors of breaking ball moving off of that pitch. Assad, for his own part, has been sharp, sitting 94 with his four-seamer and sinker and using six pitches. His four-seamer has a bit less carry, but in his case, that’s ok. He needs the bloom of other shapes that play off his fastballs, more than he needs the optimized version of those heaters.
Thornton is behind the other pitchers in camp, as he recovers from an Achilles injury he suffered last summer. Martin’s impressions in camp have been mild, and optionable lefty Ryan Rolison looks much more optionable after a disastrous appearance Monday. Assad probably only has to beat out Snider, but for the next week or two, Snider will be in camp, getting more chances to catch the eye of Craig Counsell and Jed Hoyer. Assad won’t.
At this moment, it’s likely that Assad will begin 2026 in Triple-A, where (somewhat surprisingly) he’s only ever pitched 66 2/3 innings. Unless he’s traded, he’ll almost certainly spend the majority of the season with the Chicago Cubs, but on Opening Day, he might be left behind. It’s the nature of the game, but if the Cubs are ever going to get much out Assad, they need to do so this year.