Every fantasy baseball season comes with its share of surprises — breakout stars, waiver-wire heroes, and, unfortunately, highly drafted players who fail to live up to expectations. As managers prepare their draft boards for the 2026 season, identifying potential busts can be just as important as finding sleepers. Factors such as declining performance, injury concerns, role uncertainty, or unsustainable statistics from last season could make some of these players risky fantasy investments. With that in mind, here are several National League players who could disappoint fantasy managers in 2026, making them potential bust candidates if they’re selected too early in drafts.
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SP Jacob Misiorowski:
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jacob Misiorowski tosses a football during spring training workouts Sunday, February 15, 2026, at American Family Fields of Phoenix in Phoenix, Arizona.
The word bust, may not completely apply, but there are situations when a player jumps on the scene and takes the game by storm. Such was the case for starter Jacob Misiorowski. Due to his blistering start, after only a handful of starts, he made the All-Star game. In his first nine appearances, the team won seven games, and he had a sub-3.00 ERA. The team was only 3-4 in his next seven appearances, and his ERA spiked to 4.36. While the season won’t probably dip to Bust status…based on expectations, and draft position, it very well may be.
INF Xander Bogaerts:
He is entering his age-33 season, and his fourth with the Padres. He’s missed 77 games in the past two seasons, only hitting 11 HRs each season. He’s shown the natural regression of a player on the wrong side of 30, and injuries have started to take their toll. It is unlikely he’ll get back to his days of playing 140 games or more, as he did in eight of his first nine seasons. In each of his last two seasons, his average has been in the mid .260s, about 20 pts below his career mark. I wouldn’t be shocked to see his average continue to dip into the .250s or lower, with him struggling to get into double-digit HRs.
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SS Mookie Betts:
Nov 1, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN. Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts (50) walks against the Toronto Blue Jays in the tenth inning during game seven of the 2025 MLB World Series at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
It is impossible to forecast any player on this team to be a bust. At best, I will predict that Mookie Betts’ slide continues. Most players move away from the middle infield as they get older, and do not go from the OF to SS. Betts has done that, and he’s now a year older. In 2023, his WAR was 8.6. In each of the last two seasons, it’s been under 5. I wouldn’t be surprised if he regresses even further.
INF Matt Shaw:
With the addition of Alex Bregman, there will be some moving parts in the Cubs’ infield this season. Matt Shaw stands to be the player who will lose the most playing time and be most affected. Last year, he played 126 games, but only managed 13 HRs with 44 RBIs. His average was only .226, and his OPS was under .700. He’s only 24 years old, and does have a bright future…but just not with the Cubs. The team is working him out in the outfield to try to give him more versatility, but at this point, he seems like a man without a position, and mainly used as a super-sub.
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OF Harrison Bader:
Feb 23, 2026; Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. San Francisco Giants left fielder Harrison Bader (9) hits a single against the Athletics in the third inning at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
In the offseason, the Giants signed OF Harrison Bader in an attempt to bolster their anemic offense. And while he’s always been intriguing, in reality, he’s always been an underachiever for every team that’s had him. He’s never hit 20 HRs or driven in more than 55 runs in a season…and he’s entering his age-32 season. In 2021, he posted career highs with 16 HRs and 50 RBIs. In 2024, he had 51 RBIs, and last year he managed 17 HRs and 54 RBIs. The last two seasons saw him play over 140 games, and he still has never eclipsed some basic baseline numbers for productive offensive players. He’s been in the league for nine seasons and never sniffed 20 HRs or 80 RBIs. And he’s never had an OPS of over .800.
Marlins hitters:
Connor Norby, Graham Pauley, and Griffin Conine are all set to enter their third season on the team. Their playing time all increased last season, over their rookie campaigns. None gained any momentum in their sophomore season, and none should be expected to have any sort of breakout this year. When a third of a team’s lineup can be projected to be a bust, it doesn’t bode well for the offense.
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