The Brewers had many surprise offensive contributors this past season, from Brice Turang’s breakout to the trade and resurgence of Andrew Vaughn. Still, one of the more meaningful offensive performances came from the bat of Sal Frelick. The former first-round pick out of Boston College back in 2021 slashed .288/.351/.405 and hit 12 home runs in 528 at-bats for the Brewers this past year. While Frelick’s bat was above average this past season (111 OPS+), his offensive numbers took a big leap from his previous two years in MLB, and it is fair to question whether that production can sustain itself over time.

Frelick primarily hit from the leadoff and fifth spots in the lineup in 2025, and those splits are a good starting point for analysis. In 57 games hitting leadoff Frelick hit .309/.369/.476, whereas hitting fifth, he hit .276/.340/.351 in 51 total games. The only other lineup spot he spent more than 10 games in was 19 total games in the six-hole, hitting .215/.271/.262.

It’s all small-sample variance, but Frelick performed well in the leadoff spot last season. This take is backed up by looking further into his splits, specifically against right-handed and left-handed pitchers. Frelick hit .282/.349/.433 against righties and .301/.357/.340 against lefties. These splits show that the 25-year-old can lead off consistently; he had an above-average on-base percentage against both righties and lefties in 2025, and that will be key to allowing the Brewers to score runs this season. 

However, Frelick’s power numbers can be cause for some concern. Yes, he hit 12 home runs this past season. Diving deeper into those statistics allows us a clearer look at just how much he has improved since his debut in 2023. Starting with the positives, Frelick improved on several key power statistics. He began pulling the ball in the air more, to 17.8% in 2025, up from 10.8% in 2023 and 14.0% in 2024. Still, Frelick was below average in Pull Air%, and a similar story can be told about other power statistics. His bat speed increased, but only from the 3rd to the 7th percentile. His Hard-Hit percentage increased as well, but only from the 1st percentile to the 4th percentile. Frelick’s exit velocity rose from 83.4 in 2024 to 85.5 in 2025, still in the bottom 5% of MLB. Finally, his xSLG increased .030 points in 2025, which is a significant increase, but his actual slugging increased .070. This difference is critical to projecting Frelick’s offensive output this year. 

In addition to the power-based statistics above, Frelick saw improvements in other offensive categories. His batting average has increased each year he has been in the league, from .246 in 2023 to .288 in 2025. However, Frelick’s expected batting average was significantly lower than his actual average at .255, so it is fair to expect regression. He struck out less in 2025, ranking in the top 8th percentile in MLB at 13.5%, and walked more, ranking in the 46th percentile at 7.9%. 

These statistics back what fans can expect from Frelick at the plate going into 2026; he will walk a league-average percent of the time, won’t strikeout often, and will hit at an above-average rate. This isn’t new news, and these three things should be true for the remainder of Frelick’s time with the Brewers, however long that may be.

Along with this offensive output, Frelick can be relied upon in right field with Gold-Glove caliber defense and 87th percentile sprint speed. Still, the question remains whether he can provide the same level of power as in 2025, or even whether an increase in those numbers is possible. As of this moment, it doesn’t appear likely. Frelick will certainly provide value for the Brewers in 2026 (3.6 FanGraphs WAR in 2025, 4th on the team), and he should hit in the leadoff spot, as that is probably where he is best suited with the current lineup construction.

Just don’t keep your expectations high for Frelick to hit the ball over the fence, and instead look for Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and the first base platoon of Jake Bauers and Andrew Vaughn to provide most of the home runs for Milwaukee this year, with Brice Turang as a sneaky contender to overcome his home run total from 2025. 

What are your thoughts on Sal Frelick in 2026? Do you think he goes over or under his home run total from last season?