Week 1: Starting Pitching
This could be a long article made short with the simple word: yes. I truly believe we are seeing the middle infield that will be standing at Busch Stadium for the foreseeable future. But Doc probably would not be happy if my write up just ended there. So here we go.
The St. Louis Cardinals have their middle infield of the future
For those who have been checking in on my work, first off, thank you. Secondly, you know that I am enamored with the future potential of shortstop Masyn Winn. He will turn 24 later this month and is just scratching the surface for what I hope to see flying around short for the next 8+ years.
Yes, I know the offense needs to show some progress, but even if he is unable to reach my lofty annual 20 homer/20 stolen base floor prediction, his defense is just so darn good that I will settle for a plain old 100 wRC+ with Platinum Glove level performance one of the hardest positions on the field. Call me a hypocrite because when I talked about Ivan Herrera, I basically said the opposite as I am saying for Winn. Herrera can play mediocre defense behind the plate and put up a 130 wRC+ and I will forgive a 20% caught stealing rate with a few passed balls in a growth season. For Winn, though, his athleticism and overall talent at short will allow him to be an above-average major league contributor for a long time, even if the bat does not fully progress, even though I have confidence it will.
In exactly 1200 at-bats, Winn has a .252 average and .680 OPS, which measures him as a 91 wRC+ for his career. On FanGraphs, he has accumulated a 6.3 fWAR in his 2+ years in the bigs, but much of that is due to his incredible abilities at shortstop. I sorted FanGraphs’ leaderboard for shortstop value to just include each of Winn’s last two seasons and his 7.2 fWAR (subtracting his negative debut cup of coffee) puts him as the 11th-best shortstop in baseball. His defense ranks second in MLB behind Bobby Witt, Jr., but his offensive production sits at 31st. Even with a mediocre couple of years with the bat, Winn is making a case to be a top 10 player at the position, a distinction I have already given him.
Masyn Winn’s 2024 season was an exciting glimpse into the future as he put up a 104 wRC+ with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases with top 10 defensive value. He did that while primarily hitting leadoff, a spot in the order that may not be the best fit for Winn’s skillset. Because of that great year, the expectations were high for Winn as he entered his second full season and had built a consistent track record of success in the minors. Unfortunately, his production took a step back in some ways while staying similar in other aspects.
We will never know and Winn will likely never admit to how much injuries played a factor in his 2025 season, as he only played 129 games after missing time with back and knee issues before eventually going under the knife to repair his meniscus once the season was deemed over. All told, Winn ended up with a 91 wRC+ with just nine homers and nine stolen bases, but took home his first Gold Glove award. Assuming Winn is back to full strength like he claims, get me back on the 20/20 watch. He surpassed the 20 stolen base mark in each of his first two pro seasons, including swiping 43 bags in 2022, and hit 18 homers with a .288 average and 17 swipes before he was called up for the end of the 2023 season. It is because of that consistent showing, yes I know it was the minor leagues, that my hopes for Winn’s bat are still high. With a team full of youngsters all looking to make an impact on the roster, I could see Winn finding another level in his game and finally be recognized nationally as one of the best all-around shortstops in the game. ZiPs and the other projection sites predict a similar season for Winn in 2026, but with improved health and another year of offensive maturity, I will say I think the 12 homer prediction we see from ZiPS is going to be low.
Over across the bag to Winn’s expected double play partner. Maybe you’ve heard of him: JJ Wetherholt. Before I gush over Wetherholt’s expected season and career, let us first look back at what second base provided the Cardinals last year. Sorry to bring it up as we are finally starting to move past it, but Brendan Donovan was the primary second baseman last year and put up his typical Donnie season, finishing as the 5th-best second baseman in baseball with a 3.0 fWAR while playing the keystone. His shift to second from his usual utility role provided some stability at the position that saw him, Nolan Gorman, Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese, and of course Pedro Pages see time there. But now, that position belongs to JJ Wetherholt and that’s all there is to it. Everyone in Cardinal Nation is excited for his arrival, even Kareem Haq. Kareem joined us on Redbird Rundown this past week to partake in a Prospect Draft, and even though he scooped up Rainiel Rodriguez with the first overall pick, he is still as pumped to see JJ in St. Louis as the rest of us.
So why the excitement? For one, he will probably take the leadoff spot away from Winn and allow the shortstop to find a place in the lineup that fits his aggressive, yet contact-oriented approach. We have seen how Wetherholt approaches his at-bats this spring (yes, it is still spring) and his .579 OBP shows he knows the strike zone, but his homer and four RBIs also means he knows when to attack. While he has shown that patience, I want to be wary of being grouped into Lars Nootbaar territory, where Noot was so patient he rarely swung at pitches he should hit over the mountains. Wetherholt’s Savant page shows he does have that level of selectivity, but the infielder’s K-rate is better than the outfielder’s.
We know all of Wetherholt’s accolades and expectations, so I won’t spend my time (but since you’re also here, our time) rehashing all of that. Basically, JJ is major league ready and the Arenado and Donovan trades cemented his spot on the Opening Day roster. The projection systems predict that Wetherholt will hit a little bit of a snag during his first big league season, with ZiPS being the most optimistic with a .254 batting average, 11 homers, 13 stolen bases which equates to a 103 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. By that last measure, Wetherholt would be a near-even replacement for Donnie at second. I’m sure it is just my Cardinals-colored glasses talking, but if Wetherholt sticks in the majors for 130+ games this season, I would hope his actual numbers are a tick better across the board than the prediction.
To round this week’s position group up, I wanted to do a quick view of who could fill in if either of these two missed extended time or if Wetherholt struggled to the point a demotion was necessary. One of the actual competitions we are seeing this spring is for a spot on the major league bench. With Ivan Herrera continuing to get catcher reps, the Cardinals may very well roll with three catchers on the big league roster with Pedro Pages and Yohel Pozo offering support. Even if Herrera were to move out from behind the plate, that moves him to a DH role so that trio would remain the same, just in a different capacity. Assuming Lars Nootbaar is going to start on the IL, the Cardinals still need to find a left fielder (preview to next week) who can start multiple times a week. Because of this, backup infield options Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin have been working in the outfield to gain the upperhand and earn a spot.
Each of those guys can play around the infield and have shown the athleticism to handle those spots with at least average defensive abilities. Depending on what Oli Marmol wants out of his bench could determine who takes the opening. Of the two, Saggese is projected to be the more complete hitter with the former Texas League MVP popping double-digit homers in every professional season so far with Fermin maxing out with eight home runs. Fermin is the quicker athlete, though, with the Dominican notching 20 stolen bases in three different seasons. Personally, I would like Saggese to push for the Opening Day roster and maybe even give Nathan Church (glimpse to next week again) a run for the left field job. Saggese is the younger of the two and the higher profile prospect, so in a season of opportunity, I would like Saggese to get the call to see if he can tap into some of that power he flashed in the minors.
If (when) both Masyn Winn and JJ Wetherholt make their presence known at the national level, it creates a much more interesting roster construction for the future at other positions. With Nolan Gorman at third and Alec Burleson at first, the spots for Saggese and Fermin run thin for the long-term future with the organization. Of course, that means that the incumbents stay healthy, consistent, and even improve to work their way into an extension. Either way, the 2026 season is going to be an exciting one to watch, even if the wins don’t show up early and often in the standings.
Random Cardinal of the Week returns to its roots with one of the most underrated and/or unknown player on the 2005 and 2006 teams. Check out my Twitter to see how I actually have some experience and Six Degrees of Separation with this week’s featured player.Redbird Rundown had Kareem last week and kept the prospect conversation going this week with the infamous Redbird Farmhands. We talked about the Oli Marmol extension before discussing some offensive camp battles.Our Patreon is live and active. From now until Opening Day (March 27), anyone who joins using our $1 promotion will be entered to win two Coca-Cola All-Inclusive tickets on May 4th against the Brewers. Follow the link and you’ll receive an email from us confirming your entry for the giveaway.
What to expect on Patreon:All of our normal content from Spotify/YouTubeA bonus episode every week. Our first bonus episode is unlocked for you to see what you can expect. Spotify, YouTube, Patreon links for the bonus.Paid members will get an unlocked chat with just paid members. This will be a hub for the sickos like us.Free members will have a chat option accessible to everyone.Paid members will have access to a Game Day Thread for each and every game. During Spring Training, all members can access this thread to have a conversation about each game.Free members will have access to a Series Preview before each three or four game set
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