Coming out of the third weekend of spring training, players have had ample time to acclimate to the rhythms of baseball. Meanwhile, many Royals regulars have gone off with their national teams to compete in the World Baseball Classic. This has allowed the depth players and non-roster invitees more opportunities to make a push for the Opening Day roster. Which players have taken their opportunity in stride, and who has come up short in their appearances?
As a reminder, don’t read too much into spring training performances. Sample sizes are small, competition levels vary, and players may be working on specific adjustments that don’t necessarily translate to traditional stats. This post is only meant to inform and summarize what has happened in the past few games.
Who’s Hot? 🔥
Lynch had a productive outing on Friday, pitching one inning with one strikeout and no hard-hit balls. In the game, he induced three swings and misses and a chase rate of 77.8%. He only threw two of his 11 pitches in the zone, but the extremely high chase rate suggests hitters were expanding the zone aggressively.
Lynch has now pitched four innings this spring and has only allowed one run on a solo homer. Despite having a zone rate of only 48%, he has not yet allowed a walk this spring.
While Lynch’s fastball velocity has been good this spring, averaging 95.5 mph, its Stuff+ has been below average at 96. His changeup and slider have been his best pitches this spring, with Stuff+ of 106 and 105, respectively. As Lynch continues to ramp up this spring, it will be worth keeping an eye out to see if his fastball’s effectiveness improves.
Mears also stood out in his appearance on Friday, striking out two hitters and not allowing a baserunner in his inning against the Dodgers, who were off to a hot start, scoring six runs in the four innings before Mears entered the game. Mears threw his fastball, slider, and changeup to great effect, all grading with Stuff+ of at least 107. He induced a whiff rate of 60% and a chase rate of 33.3%. When a batter made contact, it resulted in an easy groundball.
Friday was Mears’ best outing of spring so far, where he has not allowed a baserunner. He has been able to limit hard contact so far this spring, not yet allowing a hitter to barrel the ball, and his 74.4% ground-ball rate ranks in the 95th percentile among pitchers this spring. Until Friday, Mears struggled to get hitters to chase the ball out of the zone, so he will be looking to continue this growth as the regular season approaches.
Loftin saw time this weekend on Friday and Sunday. The Royals struggled against the Dodgers on Friday, only getting three hits as a team, but Loftin stood out among Royals hitters with a walk and his two other plate appearances being hard-hit outs, one of which was a 108 mph groundout. Loftin may have been a bit unlucky not to get a hit with his two batted balls, having an expected batting average of .440.
On Sunday, Loftin was not struggling with luck, getting two hits, including a home run, and three RBI. He also walked and scored a run while batting leadoff.
Loftin has seen good results this spring with an above-average wOBA of 0.473. He has also had good plate discipline with above-average chase, whiff, strikeout, and walk rates. While he has not necessarily hit the ball hard this spring, he has been able to find ways to reach base this spring. If he continues this level of production, he can certainly make his case for winning one of the utility bench spots on the opening day roster.
Who’s Not? 🧊
Cameron struggled in his outing Sunday against the White Sox, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk. While he did strike out three batters and induce eight swings and misses, when batters were able to make contact, they did damage. Cameron allowed a 67% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 99.3 mph on Sunday.
Cameron now has an ERA of 5.87 this spring in 7 ⅔ innings pitched. He is struggling to strike out batters with a rate of 14.7% and is below average in both chase and whiff rates this spring at 21.8% and 23.8%, respectively. Cameron has also not been able to limit hard contact, with a 44% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph. His Stuff+ has been well below average at 94 this spring, with all of his pitches grading at below average except for his slider, which has a score of 100.
As the presumed fifth starter of this rotation, there is still time for Cameron to hit his stride before the regular season starts. If he is unable to find his form and other pitchers like Ryan Bergert continue to pitch well, then there may need to be a discussion on who will be at the end of this rotation for the start of the 2026 season.
Neris struggled in his outing against the Dodgers, allowing four hits, one walk, and three earned runs and zero strikeouts in his lone inning on Friday. Until Friday, he had not allowed a single run, but there were early signs since he had allowed five baserunners and not struck out a single batter in his three innings before this appearance.
Neris is struggling to induce swing and misses at only 6.1% and is unable to get hitters to chase balls out of the zone with a rate of 22.9%. Overall, his Stuff+ this spring is sitting at 95, with all five of his pitches grading at below average. As a non-roster invitee, Neris faces an uphill battle if he wants to make a push for one of the open bullpen spots on the Royals’ roster.
Collins appeared in games on Friday and Sunday, going a total of 0-6 with a walk and four strikeouts. He has not had a good spring so far, slashing .067/.125/.133. Despite his struggles at the plate, Collins is starting to hit the ball harder this spring. When he does, he makes contact with an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph and a max velocity of 110.6 mph.
There is still plenty of time for Collins to hit his stride this spring, especially since he is recovering from offseason injections to treat tendinitis in his knees. With the signing of Starling Marte last week, the Royals will feel that they have a capable replacement at the plate if Collins’s recovery takes longer than expected.