Every year, there are always players in fantasy baseball who are undervalued. But there are also overvalued players, whether because of injuries or concerns that momentum from one year won’t carry over to the next. With the 2026 fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, here’s our installment of the overvalued & do not draft list.

Overvalued Players

I’ll start with the pitchers, as most of the hurlers listed above have one thing in common: not a lot of swing-and-miss.

Granted, high swing-and-miss totals are not necessary to have success at the MLB level. However, it does matter to some degree with respect to fantasy value. Why? High swing-and-miss pitchers generally have more strikeouts and lower WHIP outputs.

One of the most interesting elements with respect to pitchers in fantasy baseball is monitoring sinker usage. The reason for this is two-fold. One, sinkerballers tend to pitch to contact and have lower swing-and-miss totals. But on top of that, heavy sinkerballers also tend to have higher WHIP totals.

To illustrate this idea, I want to post this plot of WHIP juxtaposed to sinker usage to give you an idea of what I’m talking about:

Does not include pitchers who didn’t throw a recorded sinker last season. Min. 5% usage of sinker.

While there’s not a true correlation between higher WHIP figures and higher sinker usage — mainly because there are a lot more variables intertwined — one can see that once you get to the 25% thresholds, a pitcher’s WHIP tends to vary anywhere between 1.20 and 1.40.

Obviously, there are exceptions, and one can see Cristopher Sanchez (hint: don’t take him in the top 20) as a true outlier. Sanchez was able to dice up hitters thanks in large part to his ability to get swing-and-miss off his secondary stuff. Plus, the defense behind him was pretty good.

Suarez was on that Phillies team that Sanchez played for in 2025, as well. Now, he’s a Red Sox and will have to contend with different factors, including pitching in a ballpark very friendly to right-handed hitters and a different defense behind him.

Sandy Alcantara is another pitcher with a higher sinker usage, and yes, someone who had a high WHIP last season. Now, Alcantara did have a better second half in 2025. However, other factors work against him that I touched on in January, including the meat-grinder that will be the NL East.

Ryne Nelson, as we noted in our Diamondbacks’ 2025 season recap, was one of the best four-seam fastball pitchers last season. That riding fastball helped him keep the ball in the park, remarkable for a pitcher like him, and how he utilizes it.

The problem with Nelson, though, is a muted strikeout rate (21.3%). It’s something that pitchers like him and Drew Rasmussen have to contend with. However, unlike Rasmussen, Nelson’s track record is more inconsistent.

Lastly, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be part of a six-man rotation and is coming off a heavy workload season. No one will doubt how valuable he is to the Dodgers. Although, should Yamamoto be valued as a top-50 player? We had him at #30 in our initial fantasy rankings. But, he’ll likely be sliding downward towards the 45-50 range in our upcoming update.

Next up are the hitters.

Luke Keaschall has the potential to be a special hitter at the big league level. A short swing, great contact skills, and the ability to make solid contact on fastballs inside the zone.

Just from watching Keaschall in his brief stretch with the Twins, he had no problems with the high ball. It was down by the knees where he had trouble in 2025.

An .083 AVG for Keaschall in the lower third of the plate last season.

Several things work against Keaschall. One, any adjustments made by opposing pitchers in 2026. Two, health. And three, whether or not he’ll have the protection around him in Minnesota. Keaschall is floating around the top 100 in some formats, which is high.

Brice Turang had a breakout season in 2025 — but can he do it again in 2026? If he can hit 20 home runs in 2026, he’s an easy top-100 player. The jump in bat speed was a positive but there are other second basemen further down the fantasy rankings who could be great value grabs instead.

Jacksin Merrill is floating around in the top 60 in formats. We rated Merrill at #124 in our initial February rankings, for the simple reason that we don’t know whether Merrill will run as he did in 2024. After nearly achieving a 20-20 season two years ago, Merrill had one swipe in an injury-shortened season.

Lastly, William Contreras is a good catcher. However, catchers like Cal Raleigh, Hunter Goodman, and Salvador Perez are the only true top-100 players who are primary catchers (Agustin Ramirez is close). Why? Those guys are everyday players who are legitimate 30-home run threats.

In formats where walks, OBP, and OPS count, Contreras’ value does jump up. But in ones that don’t, Contreras is a strong option in the 100-125 range.

Note: Just because a player is here doesn’t mean total avoidance. Just be careful.

Do Not Draft

For those who missed the news, Hunter Greene will require arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow after he was dealing with discomfort both late last year and this spring. That recovery will run into July, making Greene someone who needs to be avoided.

While this may seem obvious, Greene was hovering as a top-50 player in fantasy before the injury. Don’t go on autopilot.

Blake Snell is another one of those pitchers with injury concerns. Snell will likely start the season on the IL, one year after he spent most of the regular season out.

Speaking of the Dodgers, Roki Sasaki is having another tough spring. The right-hander has conceded five hits and five walks over 3.1 IP for the Dodgers in Cactus League action to this point.

Sasaki has changed up his arsenal this year, adding in a cut/slider, as opposed to the slider with sweep that he used in 2025. However, hitters have been on the fastball this season. That fastball, for what it’s worth, has been sitting 96-98 MPH in the spring.

Trey Yesavage was one of our fantasy rookie pitchers to watch in February. However, things have changed since then.

Yesavage has been built slowly this spring, as the Jays seek to limit his innings in his second full pro season. What does that mean? Don’t expect a lot of length or wins from Yesavage in 2026.

Spencer Strider’s velocity has slowly crept up this spring. The question, though, is whether Strider can find his footing after a difficult 2025 season.

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