When the San Diego Padres square off against Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers later this month, it won’t be one of Fernando Tatis Jr. or Luis Arráez doing so atop the lineup. The two combined for 161 games out of that spot in the order in 2025. Instead, Craig Stammen appears poised to take a different approach.
Prior to the start of the World Baseball Classic, Xander Bogaerts assumed that role for the majority of his exhibition appearances. In his stead, it’s been Jake Cronenworth holding down the No. 1 spot in the order. Given how the rest of the lineup appears destined to be structured, it seems as if it’ll be one of those two working out of the top spot in the Padres’ order to start 2026. Which one, though, remains something of a mystery as we head into the second half of the spring slate.
When one considers the options for lineup configuration in the upcoming season, there are a few possibilities we can eliminate. Arráez, obviously, will not be around given his contract in San Francisco. Tatis is set to move to the third or fourth spot given the upside he presents in run production. He’ll likely work back-to-back with Manny Machado on some level. Jackson Merrill should fit into somewhere in between second and fifth in the order, as well, with anyone else anticipated as a regular working farther down the lineup. Which means that the Bogaerts-Cronenworth contingent that has gotten so much work there this spring isn’t any kind of mirage.
Bogaerts could very well be the favorite given his volume of appearances prior to departing for the WBC. In his absence, Cronenworth has received plenty of work. There might not be a “right” answer for which of the two could, ultimately, land the gig. Instead, the correct choice may boil down to which skill set Stammen prefers in that role.
Between the two, Bogaerts represents the more contact-oriented bat to put atop the lineup. His 3.75 pitches per plate appearance checked in below league average (3.88), which resulted in a walk rate that finished in just the 54th percentile (8.7 percent). While that number sits around league average, Bogaerts is able to use a keen eye to drive his contact rather than work a walk. His chase rate (23.6 percent) ended the year a shade below the 80th percentile and resulted in an above-average strikeout rate (17.0 percent). Bogaerts is able to use those factors to generate consistent contact, the rate of which has ended at or above 80 percent in each of the last three seasons.
There’s also a bit of actual experience in that top spot to consider. While not a massive sample, Bogaerts does have 365 plate appearances to his name as a leadoff hitter. In such a role, he’s slashed .283/.351/.397, with a 14.5 percent strikeout rate against a 9.0 percent walk rate. You’re not relying on power in that spot anyway, but the combination of approach and contact could make him a worthwhile option. That’s if Stammen can stomach the streakiness which the bat of Xander Bogaerts bore in 2025.
Cronenworth represents a vastly different player in that role than Bogaerts would. While the latter relies on his approach to create contact and work his way on base through that method, much of Cronenworth’s value is wrapped up in the walk itself.
Not only did Cronenworth’s 4.22 pitches per plate appearance rank seventh among all qualified hitters last season, his 13.4 percent walk rate landed in the 94th percentile. With that patience, he was able to post a .367 on-base percentage that eclipsed the previous season’s mark by more than 40 points while also serving as the top rate of his career. A strikeout rate that crossed the 20 percent threshold last year might indicate an overreliance on patience, but it’s difficult to question the benefit in yielding such a consistent on-base presence.
If there’s another element to consider here, it’s in the baserunning. At no point in his career has Bogaerts fallen below the average threshold in FanGraphs’ BsR baserunning metric; he was at 2.6 and 1.7 in each of the last two seasons, respectively. For his money, Cronenworth was at just 0.1 in 2024 and -0.6 in 2025. So, while Cronenworth may have the sprint speed advantage – 28.1 feet per second to Bogaerts’ closer-to-league-average 27.6 – Bogaerts is better at applying it to the basepaths.
Ultimately, though, there isn’t a whole lot separating the two. The offensive skill sets present different profiles while the baserunning difference is fairly marginal between the two. If Bogaerts was an upper-tier contact hitter with a runaway advantage in the quality of his baserunning, then his sample in that spot this spring would just about indicate the whole competition as being over. But Cronenworth’s ability to draw walks and provide competence on the bases doesn’t rule him out entirely, either.
It’s going to come down to what Craig Stammen wants out of that spot. If he wants contact and baserunning acumen, it’s probably going to Xander Bogaerts. If it’s the steadiest of eyes to work an early count and additional quickness on the bases, then perhaps Jake Cronenworth gets some run. Either way, there’s a suitable player here. It’s just a matter of what Stammen wants at this point.
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