Perhaps we should have learned our lesson with prep pitching prospects. The Tigers have taken a slew of talented high school arms over the past three years, but so far their progress has been stifled by injuries. Still, River Hamilton is another talented young pitcher with a lot of projection. Injury risk is a factor for all pitchers, so we can only take Hamilton as he is and hope for the best. Unfortunately rehab for an elbow injury in his senior year revealed a UCL tear, and he too went under the knife with Tommy John surgery before we got a look at him in pro ball.
The Tigers are working with a lot smaller bonus pools now that they aren’t picking high in the draft, but they continue to try and spread that money around, saving some at the top of the draft in order to convince a slew of prep pitchers to pass on their college commitments and begin their pro careers. Hamilton was the Tigers’ 11th rounder last summer out of Sam Barlow HS in Gresham, Oregon. As always though, the round doesn’t matter. He was a top 100 draft prospect per MLB Pipeline expected to be picked in the first three rounds. His college commitment may not have scared teams off, but a minor elbow injury that limited his senior season and eventually required surgery prevented some teams from taking a long look at him. The Tigers area scouts have done a lot of work in Oregon over the last few years, and they were on Hamilton with some conviction.
The key here is the signing bonus. The Tigers spend $497,500 to lure Hamilton away from LSU, illustrating what they think of him as a pitching prospect. That’s mid-5th round money, so the club definitely took a swing here expecting him to recover from the injury well.
The slender, 6’3” right-hander has a lot of projection left in his frame. Though he’s still fairly skinny at this point, he’s already an athletic mover with good balance and extension. That bodes well for his long-term command development as well as his velocity projections. He uses his turn and coil to generate much of his power, featuring a pretty smooth, easy arm stroke already that doesn’t show much effort until release. That portends well for both velocity and command developing well as he gets stronger, particularly in his legs.
Hamilton has touched 95-96 mph, but works more in the 92-93 mph range in games. His fourseam fastball has good riding action already, typically showing 17-18 of vertical break. His extension and arm slot should help him maximize the velocity and the vertical movement on the heater. The fourseam fastball has a little natural cut to go with the riding action, and the Tigers, like the Brewers and a few other clubs, are really seeking out this shape more recently. Hamilton will also mix in sinkers to get more run and works down and in to right-handers with it before going back up with the fourseamer.
His low to mid-80’s slider is still pretty inconsistent, but Hamilton can spin the baseball above 2500 rpms and his best sliders have plus two-plane break with sweep and good depth both. He’ll mix in 12-6 curveballs in the upper 70’s as well, though that pitch doesn’t project to be a big factor for him unless he develop more of a sharp, power curve version as he works his way through the minor leagues. He’ll flash the occasional, tight 80 mph curve in there, so the potential for that pitch to become more of a weapon is present as well. Hamilton can already effectively kill the spin and velocity on his changeup without much of a tell. His long levers, extension, and easy release help with that. It could use some tweaking to maximize its depth, and a lot more consistency, but the raw product is fairly advanced for his age.
There’s a lot to like in this 19-year-old arm. Other than perhaps Zach Swanson and maybe Owen Hall, Hamilton was the best looking prep pitcher the Tigers have taken in three drafts under Scott Harris and scouting chiefs Rob Metzler and Mark Conner. Of course, Hall and Swanson have both already missed their first pro seasons with injuries, and now Hamilton will do the same. The Tigers have made a point of mentioning the injury trouble with their young pitching prospects this offseason, but it would be hard to ignore. With some revamping of the pitching development under way in the wake of Gabe Ribas, former director of pitching, leaving to join the Colorado Rockies coaching staff, we can only hope they can figure it out. Some of this is just the risk inherent with taking big swings on prep talent. They need some of these pitchers to reward them in the end.
If Hamilton can buck the trend and build himself up without issue, his advanced control of his fastball combination will let him move as quickly as his arm will allow. There’s the potential for a really good starting pitcher here, but the road ahead is long. The Tigers are betting they got a steal here with a full recovery. Hamilton is unlikely to take the mound until late this summer at the absolute earliest, and we’ll hope he comes back 100 percent and with some strengths gains through the rehab process. His full season work will have to wait until 2027.