One of the more important developments for the 2025 Chicago Cubs was the evolution of Pete Crow-Armstrong from elite defender to all-around impact player. After finishing well into the below-average end of the wRC+ threshold in 2024 (86), Crow-Armstrong launched his offensive contribution up to a 112 mark in that respect, driven by a massive increase in power. 

The 2024 iteration of Crow-Armstrong posted 10 home runs and a .148 isolated slugging across 410 plate appearances, while this improved version went for 31 homers and a .234 ISO. He finished as the first Cubs player with 30 home runs and 30 steals in a season since Sammy Sosa did it twice in the early 1990s. That doesn’t mean it was perfect, however. The concerns around Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline continued to manifest, and it’s those very issues that played a significant role in a second half swoon from the team’s star center fielder. 

While it wouldn’t be out of line to discuss Crow-Armstrong’s 2025 in the context of “breakout,” it was very much a tale of two halves. Here’s the breakdown from each side of the All-Star break for him last year: 

1st Half: .265/.302/.544, 25 HR, 27 SB, 22.9 K%, 4.5 BB%, 131 wRC+

2nd Half: .216/.262/.372, 6 HR, 8 SB, 25.6 K%, 4.5 BB%, 72 wRC+

There’s some nuance to the splits in the sample (401 vs. 246 PA, respectively) and some bad luck on batted balls (.259 BABIP in the second half), but the difference in the numbers speak to some of the concerns that one might’ve had around Crow-Armstrong’s profile from the jump. The strikeout rate climbed, but it wasn’t an issue of being too aggressive in the way that one might also expect. His swing rate actually dropped in August to its lowest in an individual month (27.6 percent). Instead, it was a contact issue. 

Crow-Armstrong’s chase rate went down, but his chase-and-miss rate reached its height in August (56.3 percent) while he struggled mightily against fastballs specifically by the end of the year. In September, his whiff rate against that pitch type (36.1 percent) was his highest in an individual month against any pitch from the three groups (fastball, breaking ball, off-speed). There are myriad factors that we could examine as to why there was such a drop-off in the second half; approach, mechanics, and burnout might’ve all played their role. Regardless of the root causes, it’s clear that the second half decline in production is being taken into account heavily by projection systems. 

The following is how the various projection models figure Pete Crow-Armstrong for 2026: 

Steamer: .252/.301/.451, 20 HR, 27 SB, 23.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 108 wRC+

ZiPS: .255/.304/.461, 25 HR, 32 SB, 24.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 111 wRC+

ATC: .246/.296/.436, 23 HR, 33 SB, 24.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 100 RC+

THE BAT X: .244/.296/.430, 22 HR, 35 SB, 24.9 K%, 5.8 BB%, 101 wRC+

OOPSY: .255/.306/.452, 25 HR, 37 SB, 24.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 110 wRC+

The big takeaway is that it’s mildly unusual to see projections so universal on an individual player. With the exception of slugging percentage where we see it a little more, there’s very little variance across the board. Pretty much all of the systems like Crow-Armstrong to turn in a season quite similar to what we saw in 2025. But would that be satisfactory? If we wanted to be more pointed about it, what would a good season from Pete Crow-Armstrong actually look like?

When he’s “on,” this is one of the most exciting players in the game. That manifests in terms of both power and speed offensively, with Crow-Armstrong possessing the ability to add to that excitement defensively. If we were going to quantify “good” for him, it likely starts with a continuation of those components on offense. Maintaining the counting stats (homers, steals) should allow him to keep that narrative alive. If we’re going to classify it as a good year, though, the rate element will need to start to see some growth. 

That means that the approach needs to be reined in. It’s very difficult for an aggressive hitter to tamp down on that aggression altogether, but if Crow-Armstrong can at least refine the approach to mitigate the strikeouts and create more balls-in-play opportunities, that can create a carryover into the other facets of his game. A few more walks or a few more infield hits should yield tremendous results for him as an individual and the collective lineup. There may not be much more than 30 homers in that bat, but there is certainly more upside to be realized in the swipes game if he’s able to work his way on base with more consistency.

And that’s really what it comes down to for Pete Crow-Armstrong. We know what he adds on the defensive side; this is one of the best gloves in the sport regardless of position. For him, it’s about getting that energy into something a bit more focused so that he can begin to drive his production up. The good news is that the projections anticipate at least a slight uptick in walks, which could be indicative of an increased focus on that element of his game.

Expectations are a tricky quandary to solve, especially when someone as exciting as him does something like hit multiple home runs for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. But if Crow-Armstrong can show a little more maturity at the plate while not sacrificing too much of what makes him so exciting to watch, it’ll be hard to consider 2026 anything but a resounding success.