This has been a very tricky spring for forecasting the Chicago Cubs’ Opening Day roster—and even (since that exercise is a bit of rosterbation, really, and not an especially vital question) the broader utility plan for the team’s positional corps. With two key players away from the team to participate in the World Baseball Classic and another having been severely delayed in reporting to camp, there have been variables for which Craig Counsell has had to account when filling out Cactus League lineup cards that wouldn’t exist most springs, let alone during the regular season. There are also a greater-than-usual number of veterans vying for a roster spot, and often, the evaluation of such candidates goes far beyond what we can see on the field each day.
Rather than make any overconfident predictions, then, let’s pause today to ask some questions. Here are five things the Cubs need to know by the time they head north, but which (even if they have a strong inkling) fans don’t yet have much clue about with two weeks to go.
1. Will Moisés Ballesteros Be on the Roster?
This one is very important, because it has implications for other questions we’ll consider, too. Ballesteros reported to camp late due to visa issues beyond his control, but has hit the ground running at the plate. In 65 pitches seen, he’s been patient (44.6% swing rate), hit the ball hard (105.9 MPH 90th-percentile exit velocity) and made lots of contact (17.3% whiff rate). If he’s destined to be the team’s primary designated hitter, he’ll have no trouble being ready for the season, despite the late start.
However, of his six Cactus League games, he’s been behind the plate for five of them. Surprisingly, it looks like Ballesteros might be a viable catcher after all, which changes a lot of things for the team. Firstly, they already have two veteran, roster-locked catchers. Secondly, if Ballesteros is showing them enough to be seriously considered as a backstop, he probably needs a bit more seasoning at the position at Triple-A Iowa, anyway. It’s not terribly hard to imagine a scenario in which he’s farmed out to begin the year, at this point. He could come up in the event of an injury to either another option at DH or one of the incumbent catchers, or (if everyone is healthy and Ballesteros forces the issue) in the wake of a trade of either Miguel Amaya or Carson Kelly fairly early in the season. That’s pure speculation—but the chance of that trip to Des Moines for Ballesteros looks very real right now.
2. Is Michael Conforto Going to Make the Team?
This could not be tied any more closely to the first question. Conforto signed a minor-league deal with the Cubs late last month, coming in as an additional option from the left side in the DH equation. He’s also an outfielder, but a litany of injuries has turned him from a plus defender in the corners to a nearly untenable one. He can’t, in other words, be the team’s fourth outfielder, and given how much time Matt Shaw has spent in the outfield so far, he was never likely to be that guy for this team, anyway. However, if Ballesteros is out of the mix to begin the year, Conforto could fit nicely as a DH and occasional right fielder against right-handed pitchers.
He’s not having an especially encouraging spring in terms of performance. He’s swung at 46.9% of the pitches he’s seen, but whiffed on a hideous 36.9% of those swings. When he does connect, he’s only generating a 90th-percentile exit velocity a bit north of 101 MPH—not what you want from a bat-first player whose profile leans on power. Again, though, he’s the type of player the team might evaluate as much on work in the cage or on data not available to the public as on even pitch-by-pitch results in Cactus League action. If you need proof that he’s using a different process than he would in the regular season, look no further than the fact that he’s never swung at a 46.9% rate in a big-league season.
3. Who’ll Win That Fourth Outfielder Job?
The fight for the right to back up Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and provide defensive support in the corners began as a four-man fracas. It’s now down to three, with one of them being a new entrant and two of the original combatants having been eliminated. Justin Dean and Kevin Alcántara are both optionable, and will be sent down—assuming they aren’t traded (a possibility for Alcántara) or designated for assignment when a roster spot is needed for a non-roster player.
That leaves Chas McCormick and Dylan Carlson leading the roster battle, with Shaw having jumped into the fray, as well. Shaw was always likely to make the team, but what role he has within it will determine the makeup of the rest of the bench. If he’s a solid center fielder, there’s at least some chance that neither Carlson nor McCormick makes the team.
So far, Carlson has been the best of the three on the field. He’s swung at just 43.3% of the pitches he’s seen and whiffed on just 17.2% of those swings. His 90th-percentile exit velocity is around 105 MPH. Counsell has spread the former top Cardinals prospect’s work evenly around the outfield, and he’s moving well. McCormick, meanwhile, has been much more anxious to make an impression, with mixed results. He’s swinging freely (62.5% of pitches seen), and whiffing often (36.9% of swings). His 90th-percentile exit velocity is nearly identical to Carlson’s, but given the other key indicators, it’s less impressive. However, once more, the team might be judging these guys based more on defense, baserunning and factors that don’t show up in Cactus League Statcast metrics than on those numbers, so it’s too early to call the race. For what it’s worth, McCormick has only gotten one start in center field, the most important position to cover for whoever wins the battle.
4. Where Will Nico Hoerner Hit This Season?
Counsell has generally preferred to keep his star second baseman lower in the batting order than most fans would like. Hoerner batted leadoff 65 times in 2024, but that was largely because of a paucity of good options. He batted first or second just 28 times last year, while slotting in sixth 52 times; seventh 37 times; and eighth 26 times.
This spring, all seven of Hoerner’s starts have come in the first two spots in the batting order. The signal in that data is masked by the noise of other priorities during spring training, like veteran players wanting to get done for the day as soon as possible—and like the absence of Alex Bregman for the last two weeks. Still, it’s an interesting development. It’s easy to imagine Hoerner leading off against left-handed starters for this team. It would be much more surprising if he hit first (or, more likely, second) against righties, but you can certainly make the case for him, based on the way he finished 2025. That version of the lineup might go:
Michael Busch – 1b
Nico Hoerner – 2b
Alex Bregman – 3b
Pete Crow-Armstrong – cf
Seiya Suzuki – rf
Ian Happ – lf
Miguel Amaya – c
Michael Conforto – dh
Dansby Swanson – ss
It’s a bit funky, pushing a guy who’s in the lineup just to hit down to No. 8 and leaving Happ out of the top five from what is traditionally his stronger side. All seven times Happ has been in the lineup, he’s batted third, so maybe a more realistic permutation would be:
Busch
Hoerner
Happ
Bregman
Suzuki
Crow-Armstrong
Amaya
Conforto
Swanson
Either way, moving Hoerner up would highlight how deep the addition of Bregman has made the Cubs lineup. It would also be a big bet on Hoerner’s anachronistic skill set to keep playing near the top of its range of outcomes, though. Seeing him slide back down in the lineup against righties feels more likely.
5. Will Anyone Be Ready to Back Up Busch?
When the Cubs signed Tyler Austin this winter, it appeared that they had a platoon partner in place again for their slugging left-handed first baseman—even as Counsell insisted that he intends to play Busch every day this season. Now, with Austin down, it looks like the sincerity of that pledge will be more sternly tested. Busch has started against three lefties already this spring, and seems likely to be the true everyday guy at the cold corner when the season begins.
The question, really, is what the contingency plan will look like. The diminutive Shaw is the team’s utility infielder, and makes a poor candidate to play first base. Neither Kelly nor Amaya has ever appeared in a big-league game at first. Nor has Conforto. If the season began today, the Cubs might be inclined to keep Ballesteros, after all—letting him be the backup first baseman, as well as the part-time DH and occasional catcher.
That solution is far from optimal, too. Ballesteros is even shorter than Shaw, and not especially mobile. He bats left-handed, so he doesn’t shield the team from platoon issues for Busch—only from an injury to him. Austin and Jonathon Long both getting hurt has left the team with an interesting hole in the corner areas of the bench.
At this moment, if I had to bet, I would guess that Shaw, Conforto, Carlson and Ballesteros will all make the team when the Cubs break camp. It wouldn’t be an exceptionally efficient roster. It’s very hard to get Conforto and Ballesteros into any of the same lineups, and they don’t complement each other especially well in terms of matchup play. However, all the questions above carry big ramifications, and none of them have clear answers right now. Much could change in the final two weeks of spring training. For a team with division title aspirations, the stakes of that potential change are very high.