The Washington Nationals are 10-4 in Grapefruit League play — and 11-4 if you include their win over the Venezuela WBC team in an exhibition game. History has shown little correlation from Spring Training wins to regular season wins. But of course you take those wins because they feel better than losses, right?
Two weeks from today is a game that counts as it is Opening Day. Cade Cavalli will toe the rubber in Wrigley Field on March 26. The MLB schedule-makers inked up a brutal schedule for a team that lost 96 games last year. It’s sadistic if this was done on purpose as the Nats face three teams with very high NL playoff odds with consecutive series against the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers to start the 2026 regular season. FanGraphs has the Dodgers at 99 percent odds today of making the playoffs, the Phillies at 71.3 percent, and the Cubs at 62.7 percent.
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The words coming out of my mouth all Spring Training will be ‘start fast.’ You can’t win it in the first month — but you want to be right there for a good summer run and then a late fall run, too.”
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— former pitcher Jeff Samardzija said during an appearance on The Giants Insider Podcast in 2018
As the old saying goes, you can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose it. Okay, the Nats aren’t expected to be a playoff contender. However, you want a good start to feel good about yourselves. As Don Henderson commented earlier this week, “A 3-6 start might be a good outcome to start the season.” You don’t want that as a goal, but that should be the minimum of where you want to be after those first three series.
They say you want to set the tone with how you start your season. If you were Nats’ manager Blake Butera, you want to be realistic with the players, and keep the positivity that the schedule gets easier after that start.
There should be optimism on Opening Day. FanGraphs projects the Nats at a 69-93 record after the Zack Littell free agent signing. MGM Sportsbook has the Nats over/under at 65.5 wins for the 2026 season. Of course you want more wins. But being a lottery team with a Top-3 draft pick in 2027 is a nice consolation prize.
Fans would feel a lot better about this team if the bullpen had a tried-and-true closer, and the starting rotation had the 2015 version of Max Scherzer as the team’s ace. Ah, yes, dream big — one day. Okay, how’s about the first half of 2025 version of James Wood? That isn’t asking for too much.
Here are the official Spring Training offensive stats for the Washington Nationals, and the pitcher’s stats. A lot of work has been done on the minor league side of camp. Sample sizes are still tiny. Yes, you want any reason you can find for optimism. That is what Spring Training is for. Hope Springs Eternal.
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