On Tuesday, Joe Ryan made his spring debut, tossing three innings against the Rays, and on paper it was a successful start: no runs allowed on just a pair of hits. A deeper look shows that his stuff in the outing was middling, as reflected by zero strikeouts and just three swings-and-misses (all with the splitter) on 48 pitches. 

Was it the most encouraging day for a guy who didn’t pitch in the first half of camp due to an injury scare, after posting a 4.67 ERA in the second half last year? No, but it’s also not that worrisome. Ryan was shaking off the rust, like any other pitcher in his first spring exposure to live competition. Given his lack of a typical build-up, it was good to see him reach nearly 50 pitches. Ryan is apparently feeling good enough to join Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and potentially pitch in the championship game next Tuesday.   

It would be cool to see Ryan take the mound in such a high-stakes, high-profile spring setting. I’ve been enjoying the hell out of watching Byron Buxton take part in the WBC. But I also must admit the Twins fan in me feels a little uneasy about Ryan’s unorthodox ramp-up this spring, in which he’s coming off a lackluster 2025 finish and his back has already barked at him. 

I’m sure he’s been building up on the side, but what we’ve seen officially from Ryan this spring is one three-inning appearance, with his stuff playing down. Now he’s going to travel and possibly take the mound in a high-intensity environment where he’ll surely be going full-bore. 

Ryan is a vital asset for the Twins, whether as the rotation leader on a surprisingly relevant team, or a trade chip leveraged to bolster the rebuild. Having him participate in the WBC feels to me like playing with fire. That said, it’s a lot less concerning than what we’ve seen from Bailey Ober.

Last year, Ober posted a career-worst 5.10 ERA while lamenting his physical impairment and out-of-whack mechanics. He spent the offseason trying to get fully healthy and iron things out. But as soon as he got to camp, Ober expressed frustration that his progress wasn’t carrying over. The Twins held him out of games for some time before he finally made his first Grapefruit League start last Friday, finally showcasing under the lights and in front of the radar guns. 

Like Ryan, Ober posted good results in his spring debut, holding the Braves scoreless in two frames. But here the underlying signs were more troubling: he averaged under 90 MPH with his fastball, down even from last year’s reduced benchmark. Ober started again yesterday, and the velocity was down even further, with his fastball averaging 88.8 MPH and only once clocking in the 90s.

Ober insists that he’s feeling much better than last year, so that’s a plus. Spring training velocities can sometimes be overblown, but in Ober’s case the fixation is understandable, especially given that he has a history of doing the opposite: showing up in camp with extra ticks of velo, prompting us to dream on what the 6-foot-9 right-hander would be capable of with a peristent mid-90s heater. 

The idea of Ober trying to get by while topping out in the upper-80s is more of a nightmare befitting his nickname. That’s not to say he can’t stay afloat with reduced velocity — as Matthew Trueblood wrote yesterday, the key might lie in fully harnessing his changeup — but his margin is thin, and the likelihood of returning to a rotation-fronting level is low. 

The Twins have seen positive signs this spring from some of their younger starting pitchers like Mick Abel, Taj Bradley and Kendry Rojas. That bodes well for the future of the rotation. But Minnesota’s core veteran trio, upon which any plausible notion of short-term competitiveness was propped, is off to a very rocky start.

Pablo López suffered a season-ending injury on the first official day of camp. Ryan and Ober sat out the first half and haven’t looked like themselves in early action. Now, Ryan is off to the WBC to continue his unconventional build-up, while Ober remains in Fort Myers to try and overcome his velo woes. 

There’s still time for both veteran starters to instill some sense of confidence before the start of the season — a dominant outing from Ryan on the big stage and an uptick for Ober in his next couple outings would go a long way — but the clock is ticking. Less than two weeks to go until the opening series in Baltimore, where Ryan and Ober will theoretically be slated to pitch the first two games.Â