The Twins entered the weekend riding a three-game winning streak, but the momentum didn’t last very long. After an 8-5 victory over the Red Sox on Thursday, Minnesota dropped all three games that followed. They fell 6-1 to the Blue Jays on Friday, 9-6 to the Rays on Saturday, and 7-2 to the Red Sox on Sunday.
Wins and losses aren’t the most important thing during spring training, but the individual performances behind them can still tell us quite a bit. With the calendar continuing to move toward Opening Day, players are getting more consistent opportunities, and it’s becoming easier to tell who’s on track and who’s still searching for answers.
With that in mind, here’s a quick temperature check from the past few days of action.
Who’s Hot?
Luke Keaschall: Continuing his impressive spring, Keaschall went 3-for-7 at the plate with a pair of doubles and no strikeouts since our last check-in. His quality of contact has been encouraging, as well. Across those seven balls in play, he’s posted an average exit velocity of 88.9 MPH. While that number might not jump off the page, it’s actually 2.6 MPH harder than his average exit velocity during his time in the majors last season. His 90th-percentile exit velocity (often a better indicator of power upside) is 102.4 MPH, up from 100.5 last year. Even this spring’s number is below-average, but it’s much more viable than last season’s. We already know what Keaschall provides on the bases with his speed, but if he’s able to add a little more pop to his bat this year, it could really take his offensive profile to another level.
Mick Abel: Abel took the mound on Friday and turned in a solid outing, even if the final line wasn’t quite as clean as his earlier starts this spring. Over 3 1/3 innings, he allowed two earned runs on four hits and a walk, while striking out four. Both runs came early, after he issued a leadoff walk and then allowed a two-run homer in the first inning. After that, though, Abel really settled in. He generated eight whiffs on 70 pitches and once again showed off some impressive secondary stuff.
His slider, in particular, continues to look like a legitimate weapon. Abel posted a 127 Stuff+ grade in the outing with that pitch, and it’s become one of the best breaking balls anywhere in the Twins’ system. His fastball velocity was slightly down, sitting around 96 MPH compared to the 97-98 MPH we’ve seen earlier this spring, but I doubt that’s anything worth worrying about. The most encouraging part was seeing a young pitcher give up a couple of early runs and still settle in to finish the outing strong.
Matt Wallner: Wallner is another hitter who looks like he’s starting to find his rhythm at the plate. He went 3-for-6 over the weekend, highlighted by a 420-foot home run on Saturday. With that performance, Wallner is now hitting .294, with a .415 on-base percentage across 34 at-bats. His power has always been obvious when he connects, but the key has been consistency. So far this spring, he’s doing a nice job of putting together competitive at-bats, and if that carries over into the regular season, he could end up being a staple in the Twins’ lineup.
Who’s Not?
Royce Lewis: It’s been a tough stretch for Lewis at the plate. Since the last check-in, he’s gone a combined 0-for-10 with three strikeouts. The contact quality hasn’t been particularly strong, either. Only two of the seven balls he’s put in play during that stretch have had an exit velocity above 80 MPH. As a result, Lewis is now hitting just .111 this spring, with a .466 OPS.
Of course, it’s important not to overreact to spring numbers, especially for a player with Lewis’s talent level. No one should jump to the conclusion that he’s headed for a rough season. Still, it would definitely be encouraging to see him start squaring up a few more balls as camp continues. For a player we know to have made a major change to his swing, spring matters more than it would for most similarly seasoned players.
Eric Orze: Orze has continued to run into some trouble. After allowing a pair of earned runs on Thursday, he gave up another run on Sunday, while recording just two outs. In that outing, he issued two walks and allowed a hit, continuing a trend that’s been a bit concerning this spring. Over his last two appearances, hitters have put six balls in play against him, and those balls have come off the bat with an average exit velocity of 93 MPH. That’s the kind of contact that’s tough to survive consistently, and it’s reflected in his numbers. Orze now owns a 6.35 ERA, along with six walks in just 5 2/3 innings. Coming into camp, he felt like a relatively safe bet to factor into the Twins’ bullpen mix. Amid this stretch, that feels less certain.
Victor Caratini: Caratini has also had a difficult spring at the plate, and the struggles continued over the weekend, as he went hitless across seven at-bats. While it’s somewhat encouraging that he’s at least been putting the ball in play consistently, the quality of that contact hasn’t been strong. Only two of those balls were hit remotely well, and just one was classified as hard contact. It’s very unlikely that his quiet spring will affect his chances of making the Opening Day roster, but like Lewis, it would still be nice to see him start squaring a few more balls up before the regular season begins.
Spring training results themselves rarely matter much, but the underlying trends can still be useful. Some Twins players are starting to heat up as the schedule winds down, while others still have a little work to do before the regular season begins. With Opening Day approaching quickly, this week should give us an even clearer picture of who’s ready to carry momentum into the season.