Earlier in the spring, I took a swing at predicting how the final roster was going to be constructed for opening day, and it’s important to note that the roster on March 26th could wind up looking a lot different on May 1st or even August 3rd. This exercise is intended to take a snapshot of where the roster currently stands with the context we have gathered from decisions and comments gathered from decision makers. I’m certain that not everyone will be happy about how I see the final roster looking 9 days from now, when the clydesdales are galloping around the warning track, and the DeWitt’s are standing at home plate shaking the hands of the men carrying on the tradition of Cardinals baseball for the 2026 season.
With that being said, here is the previous iteration of this article for context, and you can compare what has changed or shifted in the 6 weeks of spring camp. https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-analysis/67449/predicting-the-st-louis-cardinals-2026-roster-pre-spring-edition
JUPITER, FLORIDA – MARCH 09: Matthew Liberatore #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals throws a pitch during a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Roger Dean Stadium on March 09, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) Getty Images
SP1 – Matthew Liberatore (Opening Day starter)
Analysis: Matthew Liberatore came into spring as the favorite to lead the rotation to open 2026 after trading away staff ace Sonny Gray in the offseason. Liberatore has done nothing to fall short of that expectation in Spring action, and he has also added a split-finger fastball grip to his arsenal that should help further neutralize right-handers. The key will be putting two full halves of a season together in 2026, similarly to Alec Burleson in 2025, when questions lingered about his ability to perform at a high level for a full season. This is the next step for Liberatore, and I believe he is poised to take it.
Dustin May came into Spring camp 20 pounds heavier than he was when he finished the 2025 season in Boston, and that is very encouraging, given that his velocity was down 2-3 MPH after suffering an esophageal tear that put his life in danger. May, in his 2 outings so far this Spring, has sat 97 MPH on his FB and has touched 99 on several occasions. He appears on track to be the Dustin May of old; the only question will be health and his ability to hold up for the first 4 months of the season. The Cardinals had a lot of luck and success in regulating pitcher workloads last season, and the possibility exists that May has the most healthy and successful season of his career so far in 2026.
Michael McGreevy enters the regular season as a young, reliable innings-eater type who will provide a solid floor for the big league club, as a command and control righty of yesteryear we commonly found ourselves watching during the John Mozeliak era. Mired as the 6th starter for a team capable of being a big league contributor behind a staff that saw no injuries in 2025 is no longer a factor, as McGreevy found himself all but penciled in before the season began. A full season of results will be of great intrigue to follow.
Andre Pallante has had a solid spring training, and after he told us at Winter Warm Up about his struggles with build-up before the 2025 season, that was going to be a point of emphasis heading into this season. The probability of him regaining his 2024 form, where he was 2nd in most fans’ eyes in terms of confidence in pitchers in the rotation. I keep coming back to that point because it’s not like I, or the Cardinals, are trying to convince you this is Miles Mikolas who “still has something left in the tank.” Down years happen for young players, especially those who take on foreign workloads when it comes to regular rest and recovery with that grind. I have a reasonable expectation that Pallante will be a reliable back-end starter through the duration of the 2026 season.
Kyle Leahy earns the final spot in the rotation, and I was pretty convinced he was going to be the 6th man/swing starter, much like Steven Matz was in 2025, until we had the opportunity to speak with Manager Oliver Marmol this past Friday were he laid out what he is seeing from Leahy and his lofty personality comparisons he used when describing the same level of competetitor Leahy has displayed. Therefore, it’s my belief he will be in the rotation and be given a real shot and extended opportunity (those who said runway in their heads owe a dollar to the swear jar.)
PORT ST. LUCIE, FL – MARCH 10: Riley O’Brien #61 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets at Clover Park on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Phebe Grosser/MLB Photos via Getty Images) MLB Photos via Getty Images
Analysis: Riley O’Brien would be the odds-on favorite to close out games early in the season. With 4 years of control remaining and the high-octane stuff he works with, that’s the type of reliever contending teams will pay significant price tags on at the deadline for. At 31 years old, O’Brien is nearing the end of his physical peak, and projecting forward, the Cardinals would be smart to try and parlay 4 strong months of 2026 on top of a strong 2025 performance into added prospect capital.
Speaking of relievers who are destined to move at the deadline, JoJo Romero and veteran Ryne Stanek enter the season as the expirienced grizzled vets of the group that will lead and foster the young arms as they ascend to the major leagues. Romero had a sparkling 2.07 ERA in 2025, but his underlying stats severely underwhelmed when it came to comparing against peers in a similar bracket. 2026 will be important, not only getting guys out, but how he does it that will dictate a deadline return. You should expect to see him get some save opportunities in games that feature a lefty-heavy lane in the 9th inning, but I don’t anticipate him being penciled in as that primary closer unless things change (and they always do, so who knows)
Matt Svanson enters 2026 looking to build on a very impressive rookie campaign that has him positioned as the clear heir to the closer’s role as early as the 2nd half of 2026. Svanson will likely be deployed similarly to how Kyle Leahy was a season ago in a fireman-type high-leverage role as Oliver Marmol’s “queen-like” chess piece; he can move up or down based on in-game need. Armed with an upper 90’s sinker and hard-biting slider, Svanson is the exact prototype right-handed hitters have nightmares trying to adjust to late in games.
George Soriano and Justin Bruihl are two beneficiaries of the rebuilding season, as both players are out of options and looking for an opportunity to latch on and find their major league footing. Soriano, acquired for Andre Granillo early in spring, has 4 unique pitches that offer an answer against both sides of the plate. The rationale behind swapping the two was that Soriano could handle both lefties and righties with his impressive changeup to offset the strong side platoon and mid-90s fastball and big slider to beat the righties. The Cardinals felt that Granillo did not have an answer against lefties in his repertoire, thus they executed that swap. Justin Bruihl came over in a cash deal from the Cleveland Gaurdians and he will give fans some John King vibes as the 2nd lefty out of the pen with a sinker primary but where as King had a less deceptive secondary slider offering Bruihl’s sweeper against lefties is a true swing and miss option that should give him a chance at marginal success greater than John King couldve offered. It’s important to note that the Cardinals are not married to either of these players in a sense, and if either doesn’t perform, they won’t be held onto for dear life the way the previous regime tended to do when confronted with a “path of least resistance” ideology.
Matt Pushard has had an okay spring, and I still think the Cardinals like what he has to offer, and I think they will be willing to carry him into the season and give him a shot. But, the pressure will be on him to show something worth keeping around, as referenced with Bruihl and Soriano, they have a bunch of options that will be waiting in the wings at AAA, ready for their shot if this trio does not perform or show tangible growth.
Richard Fitts has impressed in Spring action with the high-velocity fastball and pitch mix and looks to be someone who will have the opportunity to pitch multiple-inning outings for the Cardinals in 2026. What role that comes in will be dependent on several variables, but Fitts appears to have the inside track at a spot on the roster and will hold significant value when it comes to trying to get through a full season. Being that Fitts has remaining options, he may ride the Memphis shuttle a time or two just because they have the flexibility with him to do so.
I did want to acknowledge that both Chris Roycroft and Gordon Graceffo have had excellent springs, and should they carry that into the regular season with Memphis, they will likely have their opportunities in St. Louis this season as well. Ryan Fernandez appears to be more on a DFA trajectory, which is unfortunate, after the promise he displayed in 2024. The league, unfortunately, has seemed to figure him out, and he has been unable to this point to adjust back to it.
WEST PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 09: Nelson Velázquez (88) of the St. Louis Cardinals bats during a spring training game against the Houston Astros on March 09, 2026 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
2B JJ WetherholtSS Masyn Winn1B Alec BurlesonDH Ivan Herrera3B Nolan GormanLF Nelson VelazquezC Pedro PagesRF Jordan WalkerCF Victor Scott II
Analysis: In 221 PA in AAA JJ Wetherholt had a .416 OBP and .973 OPS, this spring, in 33 PA as I write this on Sunday the 15th, Wetherholt has a .455 OBP and a .955 OPS with 8 BB to only 5 K’s. Wetherholt might not only be the best lead-off option for the Cardinals in 2026. He might be their best CURRENT hitter on the team, and he’s never taken a big league at bat. The process is elite, the swing decisions are terrific, his ability to control the strike zone and do damage when pitches are in the zone, and to “not do too much” based on where the pitch is thrown means he will be happy to take his hits the other way. Normally, yes, you try to ease young players into roles, I think, and I believe the Cardinals think as well, that JJ has been preparing for this for over a year now and is ready to take on such an assignment. Normally, such small sample sizes are easily explained away, but when it’s an impressive continuation of what we had seen all of last year in the upper minors and in college previous to that, at some point, you have to just believe what you see and let it ride. Wetherholt should bat lead off opening day and if anyone is going to lead the team in PA this season, it SHOULD be Wetherholt. This guy is an elite processor, and the MORE reps he gets the better and better he will be.
Masyn Winn in the 2 spot, I know will give some fans heartburn, “his OBP is terrible, why would they put him at the top of the order!” Masyn himself has been very public about his approach over the last 2 seasons, and he admitted he was just up there trying to hit home runs and do as much damage as possible. When we talked to Oli on Friday, he told us that Masyn has made an important approach change, is focused more on spraying the ball all over the field, and picking and choosing where he takes his shots when trying to muscle up in favorable counts and against favorable pitchers as well as being more open to taking his walks and letting the guys behind him do the damage. You put Masyn Winn and his hit spray/ line drive approach behind JJ Wetherholt and Victor Scott II after the lineup turns over, and you’re really setting a table for your 4 most dangerous bats in Burleson, Herrera, Gorman, and Velazquez. The other point I will offer is that Winn has been the 2nd best baserunner on the team over the last 2 seasons, behind only Victor Scott II in terms of baserunning value according to Baseball Savant, and you want the faster/smarter/ more aggressive runners ahead of your production guys.
I don’t think I need to say much about Alec Burleson, steady, dependable, contact-oriented with 20+ HR pop, and I think he will impress a few people with how well he moves at 1B as a defender. Set it and forget it type player who will be a driver of offense all season long.
Ivan Herrera at DH more predominantly throughout the season will irritate some fans, and I hear you on that. According to Derrick Goold of the STL Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals dont view the Ivan Herrera catching question as one that was ever going to be decided before the season began, that also comes with the caveat that, Herrera wasnt likely to take the bulk of reps behind the plate throughout the season anyhow, and now with yet another lower body injury Herrera is working through in spring the question about a position switch continues to linger over his head and I’ve been adamant all along that if his catching gets in the way of his bat being in the lineup and his health is negatively affected in such a way that the carrying tool (Bat) is compromised then it’s not worth it. Herrera has enough athleticism to play a less demanding defensive position, such as 1B or even LF, and the offensive production he provides will certainly play in those positions. This will be one of the single most intriguing storylines for me to follow in 2026. Is Herrera able to overcome the nagging injuries and come out on the other side as one of the most valuable hitting catchers in baseball, or is it just not meant to be, and you still have a really impressive hitter on your hands who needs a less demanding spot on the field so that his true tools can shine?
Nolan Gorman, I have espoused my fair share of criticism over the last couple of seasons when it comes to approach and controlling the strike zone. The power has always been undeniable; the question has always been, will he hit enough to tap into it? This Spring Gorman has demonstrated an offseason approach change that he worked with a reported “mystery hitting Guru,” according to a piece written on MLB.com, and the work has been continued with hitting coach Brant Brown very diligently, which appears to be yielding positive results and reviews from Cardinals decision makers. Gorman could finally be on the verge of a breakout, and the Cardinals as an organization could be in positon to cash in on him as an asset should he do so.
Nelson Velazquez has probably been the single most impressive performer not named JJ Wetherholt this spring, and as I’m typing this, he just belted his 4th spring home run to lead the team in that category. When you watch the plate appearances, he controls the strike zone, works counts, has impressive all-field power, and more specifically, he hits right-handed to offer some balance to what could have been a lefty-heavy lineup. It’s part of the reason why I see Lars Nootbaar putting more pressure on Jordan Walker early on than Joshua Baez. If Walker isn’t producing and Velazquez is, Nootbaar will slide into Walker’s spot and could cause the Cardinals to more seriously consider a demotion, and by midseason, if Baez is continuing to do what he showed in spring and all of last season, he could pass Walker by as well. If Velazquez doesnt carry over his impressive spring into the regular season, then Walker is afforded more time.
Speaking of Jordan Walker, it’s continued to be a struggle for consistent success this spring, and he has been working hard on the back fields with Cardinals coaches, trying to refine his approach. I asked Oli about Walker and Velazquez, and he told me, “Walker keeps us up at night.” The raw talent is obvious, the drive and desire to improve are there, a decision point is coming sooner than later for Walker, and it seems as though he’s really starting to feel the pressure of his opportunity. I’ve been reminded that pressure is privilege, and the people who feel it the most are the ones with the most to gain. Odds at this point are against Walker, but there is still an internal belief that they can unlock him, and he becomes the talent the organization hoped he could be when they drafted him.
Pedro Pages, because of his limited offensive ceiling, will draw unjust criticism from the fanbase when the offense struggles, because his value lies on the other side of the ball, even though if the Cardinals were to have a capable competetive offense on the field regularly Pages would not be nearly as much of a lightening rod if it meant the Cardinals were winning and he was contributing in a relative to league average way for catchers. Pages is viewed as a leader in the clubhouse, someone who is respected by the pitching staff, and has displayed flashes of offensive production. Could he take another step? Not impossible, but maybe most of the fan base would bet against it.
Victor Scott II will enter his 3rd major league season, after an offseason where he spent a large portion of it working with a bio-mechanical specialist who focused on making him more efficient with his swing and rebuilding it from the ground up. Vic also spent the offseason working on his bunting and will look for more ways to leverage his speed and athleticism into more consistent production. Manager Oli Marmol has talked about Vic as one of the guys whose spring stats don’t look very good, but the “under the hood” numbers are encouraging. Scott’s baserunning and defense are borderline elite tools, and if he can even get to league average offensively, that’s a real weapon and building block type talent for future contending Cardinals teams. This could be a very important season for Scott, and for Cardinals fans’ sake, it’s hopefully another positive step forward.
JUPITER, FLORIDA – MARCH 09: Ramón Urías #33 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a single against the Baltimore Orioles during the second inning of a spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium on March 09, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) Getty Images
Analysis: I caught some flak the first time around for projecting Yohel Pozo on the bench in the capacity that I described above, and that’s exactly how the Cardinals have deployed him this spring, and he lines up to be the backup coming into 2026 again. Pozo is beloved in that locker room, and he seems to have really flourished as a Cardinal. Pozo is an average-ish defender behind the plate, a solid framer, a decent blocker; the throwing arm seems to be below average, but the overall catcher profile you can live with as a backup. Offensively, he makes a ton of contact, avoids striking out, but doesn’t walk either. He has played some 1B in the minors and would seem to be comfortable enough over there should Burly need a spell from the lineup a few times this year.
Last time I did this, Bryan Ramos was on the roster, and I was admittedly intrigued by the potential he had untapped at the big league level. That seemingly didn’t matter when the Cardinals claimed Zak Kent for the 49th time and then subsequently DFA’d him again when they signed Urias. Ramon Urias has a gold glove to his name, and he can play all over the infield. He offers some right-handed pop to counter a tough lefty and will provide the “veteran leadership.” At least he projects to offer more offensively than Brandon Crawford or Matt Carpenter…
Thomas Saggese has added outfield to his list of credentials, and we could see him out there a fair bit. Could he be the next version of Brendan Donovan/Tommy Edman? Maybe. He’s still away at the WBC with the espresso-drinking Italian team that’s become the cinderella of this year’s classic. More ways to work Saggese into the fold isnt a bad thing and perhaps he could find a home in the outfield should an opportunity present itself.
Jose Fermin represents the 26th man on the roster and is out of options. Fermin works counts well and can reasonably play most defensive positions. I know this is probably a spot some fans would’ve liked to see Nathan Church grab. But I’ll get to him in a moment. Fermin came into spring with the opportunity to win a job in LF and early on looked like he was trending that direction. Velazquez has pretty much put that conversation to bed in the last week and a half, respectfully. Fermin is someone the organization is probably fine with being a bench piece, providing good clubhouse presence, and playing sparingly while they get extended looks at other guys they want to see on a nightly basis.
The aforementioned Nathan Church is someone who is starting to grow on me. I thought 4th outfielder at best, and thought that was a reasonable outcome. It seems as though Church might have more in the tank offensively, and if that’s the case and he projects as more than just a 4th outfielder bench bat type, then I want him playing every day in Memphis in CF as Victor Scott insurance and playing on a winning team between Josh Baez and Chase Davis every night rather than sitting the bench maybe playing twice a week, some would argue it shouldnt be that way, but in reality it would be, and if you believe there is more in the tank then the best thing for him to is keep playing and wait for his opportunity to play everyday in the big leagues.
Wetherholt and Velazquez will require 40-man spots to be added to the roster. There are a few relatively painless routes that could alleviate this. Nick Raquet, “Mr. Bulletproof” as I’ve jokingly referred to him, is someone who could reasonably be DFA’d and more than likely wouldn’t be claimed, but if he were, you still have 5-6 LH relief options in-house that the loss of depth isn’t heartbreaking. With the emergence of JJ Wetherolt and Bryan Torres, Cesar Prieto doesn’t appear to have a long-term fit with the Cardinals. This could be a trade opportunity or just a flat DFA gamble. But one way or another, it could solve one of your roster-related conundrums relatively pain-free.
The last one would be a little more disheartening for Cardinals fans, and I don’t have a good updated timetable for Lars Nootbaar, but a 60-day IL trip could kick the can down the road on a roster decision, and perhaps the Cardinals wouldnt mind giving Lars the additional time until what would be May 25th at the earliest. That has to be an option the Cardinals’ front office is weighing as they continue to shrink the spring roster.
We’re just 9 days away from the return of Cardinals baseball. SINGLE DIGITS FOLKS, GO CRAZY!