The Tampa Bay Rays head into 2026 in a somewhat familiar position: a payroll well below most divisional rivals, a roster built more on ingenuity than name recognition, and a front office quietly convinced they can squeeze more wins out of this group than any algorithm will give them credit for.

One potential area of difference: the Rays’ typical areas of strength and weakness. For one, the usually light-hitting team has one of the league’s more exciting bats in Junior Caminero. In 2025, the 22-year-old third baseman casually posted a 45-homer, .264/.311/.535 season in 2025, making him not just the face of the franchise, but the sort of player who seems like he’ll one day go and sign a 12-year deal with the Yankees. That’s a few years from now, anyway.

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On the other hand, the pitching staff—where Tampa Bay usually shines—harbors a few reasons for concern. All told, since last season the Rays lost a total of nine pitchers between the rotation and the bullpen. This team seems to have a magic ability to find good pitching out of nowhere, but they still find themselves having to rebuild more than half of last year’s innings.

Let’s dive into some of the recent comings and goings.

Additions and Subtractions

Since 2025, the Rays lost nine pitchers and five position players. The former includes starters Shane Baz (you know where he went), Zack Littell (at last year’s trade deadline), and Adrian Houser, not to mention Zach Eflin the year before that. Relievers Pete Fairbanks, a longtime weapon, Eric Orze, Forrest Whitley and Mason Montgomery, among others, also flew the coop.

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The departed position players include University of Maryland alum and longtime Ray Brandon Lowe (2B), dealt to Pittsburgh, and three outfielders in Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Kameron Misner, plus 1B/OF Christopher Morel.

To cover these holes, the Rays did what they do, which is go in aggressively on low-cost veteran talent. Perhaps the most notable acquisition was Cedric Mullins, the former Oriole who can hit for power, steal bases, and play a reliable center field. Tampa also brought back speedster Jake Fraley, an outfielder who was a former second-round pick a decade ago. The Rays acquired one more outfield glove in Justyn-Henry Malloy, via trade with the Tigers, and a veteran utility man in Gavin Lux.

The projected Tampa Bay batting order will lean heavily on its top four spots. In his second season, centerfielder Chandler Simpson will lead off and attempt to create chaos on the bases. Yandy Díaz (day-to-day this spring with an undisclosed issue) bats second and remains a scary-enough disciplined contact hitter to make his non-existent defense worth the investment. Infielder Jonathan Aranda is likely to hold down first base and hit solidly in the third slot. Then comes Caminero, and with his 45 home runs and .846 OPS last season, opposing pitchers should be ready.

After that? It gets thin, and conspicuously left-handed. There’s Mullins, Lux, Taylor Walls at short, Jake Fraley in right, and Hunter Feduccia behind the plate. It’s a lineup with a pretty limited floor.

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Then, as I said, there’s starting pitching. The Rays are top-heavy, with Drew Rasmussen their clear ace. The righty had an elite 2025 season, going 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 31 starts. After that, well. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched a meaningful inning since August 2023, but he was darn good before that, and presumably is healthy now. Ryan Pepiot was fine last year. The 35-year-old Steven Matz was signed this offseason and will compete for a rotation spot. Same deal, Nick Martinez.

The bullpen figures to include Edwin Uceta (temporarily slowed down with a back injury in spring training), Garrett Cleavinger, old Oriole Bryan Baker, Mason Englert, Jesse Scholtens, Hunter Bigge (status also uncertain), and Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, two starters making a turn to relief pitching this year.

Projections

This is, on paper, a lineup that could work in a bad division. The AL East is not a bad division. So we might well have doubts about the Rays’ chances this year. Here’s what the pundits think:

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PECOTA: 81-81 (5th in the AL East)
FanGraphs: 81-81 (same)
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/Under 78.5 Wins, +250 to win the AL East, +3000 to win the AL Pennant, +8000 to win the World Series

The pundits place the Rays at between 78-81 wins, which in this division almost certainly means watching October from home. The Blue Jays project as division favorites, the Yankees will have Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón back in the rotation at some point, the Red Sox’s rotation got significantly better thanks to acquiring Ranger Suarez, and the Orioles have the talent to make a run.

None of that means the Rays can’t surprise. Manager Kevin Cash has coaxed more out of less before, and this organization has a habit of finding contributors where other teams dare not tread. But in the AL East, the margin for error is essentially zero. So maybe don’t fully count the Rays out. But also, just maybe, don’t pencil them in, either.