Cade Cavalli debuts as the Nationals’ opening day starter post-injury, flaunting a potent pitching arsenal. Peter Appel breaks down Cavalli’s potential.
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Aram, I’m going to stick in the National League East, but I’m gonna go with a pitcher, and this is a pitcher that you and I both watched at the Futures Game I think four or five years ago.
Aram, I’m going to stick in the National League East, but I’m gonna go with a pitcher, and this is a pitcher that you and I both watched at the Futures Game I think four or five years ago.
And it’s not Shane Baz, it is the other guy who I pointed at and asked you, “Who is this guy sitting 100 miles an hour with ride?
And it’s not Shane Baz, it is the other guy who I pointed at and asked you, “Who is this guy sitting 100 miles an hour with ride?
And why isn’t he at the top of a rotation yet?”
And why isn’t he at the top of a rotation yet?”
And you said, “Well, he’s been kind of banged up.”
And you said, “Well, he’s been kind of banged up.”
And he has been kind of banged up, but now he’s healthy.
And he has been kind of banged up, but now he’s healthy.
Cade Cavalli of the- Uh-huh Washington Nationals.
Cade Cavalli of the- Uh-huh Washington Nationals.
Now, I looked into his data and it still looks pretty good.
Now, I looked into his data and it still looks pretty good.
I know the knuckle curve had a 351 batting average against it, but a 239 expected batting average and a negative seven degree launch angle against.
I know the knuckle curve had a 351 batting average against it, but a 239 expected batting average and a negative seven degree launch angle against.
Again, these are short samples, but it also comes with a 39% whiff rate.
Again, these are short samples, but it also comes with a 39% whiff rate.
And when you just turn on the TV and watch Cade Cavalli, it objectively looks like a nasty pitch, it just got unlucky results last year.
And when you just turn on the TV and watch Cade Cavalli, it objectively looks like a nasty pitch, it just got unlucky results last year.
And that’s his most used pitch.
And that’s his most used pitch.
Second most used pitch is the heater, which he sits 97.1 miles an hour and opponents only hit 220 against it.
Second most used pitch is the heater, which he sits 97.1 miles an hour and opponents only hit 220 against it.
The changeup posted a 40% whiff rate last year, and his sinker, which he also sits 97 with, negative one degree launch angle against.
The changeup posted a 40% whiff rate last year, and his sinker, which he also sits 97 with, negative one degree launch angle against.
Lot of negative launch angles.
Lot of negative launch angles.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Which does what?
Which does what?
Increase that ground ball rate.
Increase that ground ball rate.
55% ground ball rate last year.
55% ground ball rate last year.
He’s a big guy, 6’4″, 225 pounds, full runway this year, and he’s finally healthy.
He’s a big guy, 6’4″, 225 pounds, full runway this year, and he’s finally healthy.
Like, he was once a top pitching prospect in baseball.
Like, he was once a top pitching prospect in baseball.
The reason he has continued to fall is because he’s been perpetually injured.
The reason he has continued to fall is because he’s been perpetually injured.
But now he was just named the opening day starter for the Washington Nationals.
But now he was just named the opening day starter for the Washington Nationals.
They have no other reason than just to let him run.
They have no other reason than just to let him run.
He has good stuff, keeps the ball on the ground.
He has good stuff, keeps the ball on the ground.
The strikeout rate should continue to climb.
The strikeout rate should continue to climb.
Like, I think this is going to be a guy who You know, I think the innings might not quite be there just because first full season, but is 140 innings in his future?
Like, I think this is going to be a guy who You know, I think the innings might not quite be there just because first full season, but is 140 innings in his future?
Is an ERA below four in his future?
Is an ERA below four in his future?
I think that could be the case in 2026.
I think that could be the case in 2026.
That’s why Cade Cavalli is my second breakout pick.
That’s why Cade Cavalli is my second breakout pick.
His spring has been fantastic too.
His spring has been fantastic too.
I mean, he, he has been unbelievable.
I mean, he, he has been unbelievable.
I, I know it’s only three short outings, but I mean, he has gone two innings, four innings, and three innings, and combined has only allowed one hit.
I, I know it’s only three short outings, but I mean, he has gone two innings, four innings, and three innings, and combined has only allowed one hit.
So that’s nine innings, one hit, no earned runs, one unearned, two walks, nine K’s.
So that’s nine innings, one hit, no earned runs, one unearned, two walks, nine K’s.
he, he looks like, he looks like a guy that should be starting on opening day, you know, for a rebuilding team.
he, he looks like, he looks like a guy that should be starting on opening day, you know, for a rebuilding team.
I love it.
I love it.
And the thing with Cavalli that, you mentioned it’s the health, he even got a little bit of a late start last year.
And the thing with Cavalli that, you mentioned it’s the health, he even got a little bit of a late start last year.
And then, but the biggest positive was that he pitched through the year healthy, which is the first time he’s done that, you know, really in a, in a very, very long time.
And then, but the biggest positive was that he pitched through the year healthy, which is the first time he’s done that, you know, really in a, in a very, very long time.
all the talent there.
all the talent there.
The other little piece I think that you alluded to is I think there’s more whiffs in the tank as he executes better, in general.
The other little piece I think that you alluded to is I think there’s more whiffs in the tank as he executes better, in general.
But the fact that he can get you out in two different ways and, and he can I like guys like this because he’ll, he’ll have his starts if, if he’s on this year and he has a year that you think he can have where he’s six innings, 10 K’s.
But the fact that he can get you out in two different ways and, and he can I like guys like this because he’ll, he’ll have his starts if, if he’s on this year and he has a year that you think he can have where he’s six innings, 10 K’s.
But if, if the swing and miss stuff isn’t there, the knuckle curve isn’t there that day, he can still maneuver his way through six innings, three K’s, but getting a bunch of ground balls and it’s two earned runs, right?
But if, if the swing and miss stuff isn’t there, the knuckle curve isn’t there that day, he can still maneuver his way through six innings, three K’s, but getting a bunch of ground balls and it’s two earned runs, right?
So when you can get the ground ball outs and the strikeouts, opens up a lot more doors for you, and I think that’s where Cavalli is heading into his age 27 season.
So when you can get the ground ball outs and the strikeouts, opens up a lot more doors for you, and I think that’s where Cavalli is heading into his age 27 season.
Now, what I will admit is, is the ERA gonna look as good as I want it to?
Now, what I will admit is, is the ERA gonna look as good as I want it to?
Probably not, because the Nationals’ defense in the infield is not very good.
Probably not, because the Nationals’ defense in the infield is not very good.
So he might put the ball on the ground, which is generally a good thing, but will they be fielded is the question.
So he might put the ball on the ground, which is generally a good thing, but will they be fielded is the question.
Like, I think his FIP is gonna be awesome.
Like, I think his FIP is gonna be awesome.
That’s the nerd that I am.
That’s the nerd that I am.
The ERA, I hope.
The ERA, I hope.
I hope.
I hope.
But Mackenzie Gore has tried and it hasn’t exactly gone well when he keeps the ball on the ground.
But Mackenzie Gore has tried and it hasn’t exactly gone well when he keeps the ball on the ground.
Like, this Nationals defense is just not great.
Like, this Nationals defense is just not great.
So the overall results might not be as good as I might want them, but from a pure talent perspective, I think a 3-8-0 FIP could certainly be in his future next year.
So the overall results might not be as good as I might want them, but from a pure talent perspective, I think a 3-8-0 FIP could certainly be in his future next year.
Yeah, and I think they might defend a little bit better.
Yeah, and I think they might defend a little bit better.
Hearing CJ- I’m hoping Abrams has bought in on it.
Hearing CJ- I’m hoping Abrams has bought in on it.
If Naz Nunez is playing second base every day, that’s gonna help.
If Naz Nunez is playing second base every day, that’s gonna help.
Brady House can pick it a little bit, so we’ll see if it can get a little bit better out there.
Brady House can pick it a little bit, so we’ll see if it can get a little bit better out there.
but the outfield doesn’t help either with Lyle and Wood.
but the outfield doesn’t help either with Lyle and Wood.
Yeah.
Yeah.
those two guys are, should be way better defensively than they are.
those two guys are, should be way better defensively than they are.