After the first two weeks of the college baseball season wrapped up, the race for the number 1 pick is on. As the holder of that pick, Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals will be closely watching as the race unfolds. It is early, but Florida State left-handed pitcher Jamie Arnold is my favorite player in the draft so far.
Arnold’s outlier traits give him ace potential. The biggest driver of Arnold’s success is his funky low arm slot that hitters can’t pick up. It is why he has drawn some comparisons to Chris Sale. The ultra flat approach angle is why his 93-95 MPH fastball put up dominant results last year.
Arnold has taken his game to the next level this season. While he has not faced the strongest competition so far, he has overwhelmed the hitters he has faced. Through 11 innings he has not given up a run. Arnold has allowed three hits, struck out 16 and has not walked a batter.
Command is another big selling point for Arnold. Despite having unorthodox mechanics, he lives in the strike zone. The combination of swing and miss stuff along with potentially plus command gives Jamie Arnold ace upside.
To go along with his outlier fastball, Arnold has a devastating slider. It has sweeper like movement and hitters just can’t cope with it. The only drawback is the pitch has too much movement, making it harder to command. With Arnold’s feel to pitch, this is a good problem to have.
Arnold has developed a new pitch this offseason which could be a third plus offering. He is now throwing a splitter with elite pitch characteristics. The split had hitters fighting for their lives at the plate.
Facing Jamie Arnold has become a totally unfair proposition for college hitters. His stuff and command are just too good. The only thing that does not make him a slam dunk first overall pick might be the fact he doesn’t throw 100 like Paul Skenes. However, Arnold’s deception makes his 94 MPH play closer to 100.
Fellow number 1 pick contender Jace Laviolette is off to a slow start, which only increases Arnold’s chances of going number one. Laviolette is 4/19 to start the season. He has walked a lot and three of those hits are home runs, but the start only adds questions about Laviolette’s hit tool. We know the Texas A&M outfielder has power, but can he hit enough to justify going number one overall.
While Ethan Holliday’s high school season has not started yet, similar questions surround him. Holliday had some struggles on the high school showcase circuit where he faced the best high school pitchers. He was being pitched around, so he might have been trying to do too much. Facing overmatched Oklahoma high school pitchers will not do a ton to answer those questions. Nationals scouts will be looking at the most famous name in the draft to see if he has made any tangible adjustments.
Aiva Arquette is another name to watch for, as he has gotten off to a fast start. However, he needs to keep up these performances to stay in the face. Arquette was not as highly regarded as the big 3 preseason, so he will have to force the Nats hand to be selected.
Right now, Jamie Arnold feels like the cleanest prospect in the draft. He is as low risk as a pitcher can be, but also has that ace ceiling. Last year Hagen Smith, another lefty with a low arm slot went in the top 5. However, Arnold has better command and has now flashed a legitimate third pitch, something Smith did not have. My favorite 2025 MLB draft prospect resides in Tallahassee, Florida and his name is Jamie Arnold.