On Thursday, Mick Abel took the mound for the Twins and — as has often been the case this spring — he put on a show. Averaging 96.2 MPH with his four-seamer and 88.1 with his slider, Abel piled up six strikeouts in 4 ⅔ innings, with Red Sox hitters whiffing on 11 of 42 swings. One day later, it became all but official that Abel will head north with the big-league club, with Zebby Matthews being optioned to Triple-A.
A month ago, I wrote that Pablo López‘s season-ending injury at the start of camp swung the door wide open for Abel to step up and seize a spot on the Opening Day rotation. He went and did just that, with his Grapefruit League numbers reflecting dominant form in five starts: 18 IP, 4 ER (2.00 ERA), 1 HR, 23 K, 3 BB.
That last number is perhaps the most important. Control has been Abel’s main sticking point as he looks to get over the hump and establish himself in the majors. He walked seven in 14 innings with the Twins last year, and has averaged 5.1 BB/9 in Triple-A. This spring, the right-hander has done an excellent job of staying in the zone; up until he issued a pair of free passes in the fourth inning on Thursday, he’d walked only one hitter through 16 frames.
Acquired alongside catching prospect Eduardo Tait (who showed well in the Spring Breakout game earlier on Thursday) in exchange for Jhoan Duran at the 2025 deadline, Abel is one of the biggest reasons for excitement around Minnesota’s future rotation outlook. The 24-year-old has been widely viewed as a top pitching prospect in the game, and his high-powered arsenal grades out beautifully according to pitch profiling models.
Matthews entered camp with an ostensible leg up on Abel due to his more extensive MLB experience, but at no point has he quite looked like the best version of himself. His stuff is down and he’s been hit hard, with seven earned runs allowed on 12 hits in 11 innings. He also issued four walks, straying from his signature strength.
Coming off a 2025 season where he struggled and missed time with a shoulder injury, it’d be nice to see Matthews dialing up his peak velocity and missing bats again, but that hasn’t really been the case in March. He’ll head to Triple-A where he figures to be the top rotation reinforcement waiting in the wings.
As Twins fans are all too aware, it usually doesn’t take long for a need to emerge in the starting rotation. We could easily see Matthews back up before the end of April. But either way, Abel should have some runway to find his footing in the majors and I’m here for it.
The 6-foot-5 righty finished his up-and-down 2025 season on a brilliant note with six shutout innings against the Phillies. He’ll now have a chance to pick up where he left off right out of the gates. Abel’s talent is such that we could be looking at him as Minnesota’s No. 1 starter by year’s end, but with a 6.23 ERA through 39 MLB innings thus far, he’s got plenty to prove in (hopefully) his first full season in the bigs.
How are you feeling about the Twins’ rotation? Is Abel over Matthews the right choice? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.