>> FOR SPRING TRAINING MOOD RIGHT NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SO WE HAVE AN INTERESTING STORY TONIGHT ABOUT AMERICA’S PAST TIME. YOU PROBABLY THERE’S A CORRELATION BETWEEN WARM WEATHER IN HOME RUNS. HAVE YOU EVER WONDERED WHY GULF COAST METEOROLOGIST SARAH BLUE BREAKS DOWN THE SCIENCE BEHIND HOMERS IN HEAT. >> HAVE YOU EVER HEARD THE TERM HOT STREAK? THERE MAY BE SOMETHING TO IT. HOT WEATHER OFTEN GOES HAND-IN-HAND WITH MORE HOME RUNS. THEY WANT IN IT WHEN IT’S WARM OUT WHEN IT’S HOT OUT, YOU KNOW, THAT’S JUST THE BEST TYPE OF WEATHER BECAUSE IT’S JUST WHAT BASEBALL MEANT TO BE PLAYED AT. >> A RECENT STUDY PUBLISHED IN THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JOURNAL SAID THAT A BALL CAN GO FURTHER ON A HOT DAY. THEN A COLD DAY HOME RUNS ARE UP TO 47% MORE COMMON IN THE HEAT. ACCORDING TO THE STUDY LAST YEAR ACROSS WILL BE MORE THAN 1000 HOME RUNS WERE HIT IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST. COMPARE THAT TO A COOLER MONTH. WHEN WE SAW AROUND 900 HOMERS, IT REALLY ALL COMES DOWN TO THE DENSITY OF THE AIR. WARM AIR IS LESS DENSE THAN COLD AIR. SO IT IS MUCH EASIER FOR BASEBALL TO FLY OUT OF THE PARK WHEN TEMPERATURES SOAR. THINK OF IT LIKE MOVING THROUGH A DENSE SHRUB THAT YOU HAVE TO MOVE LOTS OF MATERIAL OUT OF THE WAY LIKE LEAVES AND BRANCHES. SO IT’S HARD TO GET THROUGH. ONE, THE VEGETATION THINGS. THE AIR GETS WARMER. THINGS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT AND IT’S EASIER TO GET THROUGH THIS IDEA DOESN’T NECESSARILY CHANGE PLAYERS HITTING TECHNIQUES, BUT IT COULD CHANGE STRATEGY FOR THOSE PLAYING IN THE OUTFIELD. BUT I THINK THERE’S DIFFERENT AREAS WHERE >> YOU DO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS, WHETHER IT’S, YOU KNOW, YOU’RE OUTFIELD, DEPTH ON DEFENSE STUFF LIKE THAT HOT DAYS USUALLY COME WITH BRIGHT BLUE SKIES. BUT THE BRILLIANT FLORIDA SUNSHINE CAN PAINT HARSH AUTOS THAT OBSCURE THE BALL. >> CUOMO LAW, ERIC AND YOU KNOW, REALLY LOOK AT MAKE THE BALL LOOK DIFFERENT. SO FOR ME PERSONALLY, THAT’S THE TOUGHEST TO PLAN. >> WHEN THINGS GET TOO INTENSE, SOME MLB STADIUMS HAVE RETRACTABLE ROOFS. >> MOST LIKELY WILL GO WITH THEM TO VOTE. YOU KNOW, IT’S JUST, YOU KNOW, MAKES THINGS A LOT EASIER ON US. PLAYERS LIKE WE’RE NOT SAFE IN THE SUN. >> OTHERS, THOUGH, ARE NOT THE BIGGEST FAN OF PLAYING INDOORS. THE DEPTH PERCEPTION IS DIFFERENT. THE THE COLOR IS DIFFERENT. TRACKING THE BALL IS IS A LITTLE BIT TOUGHER. >> OF COURSE, WIND AND RAIN ALSO BASEBALL’S FLIGHT. BUT ACCORDING TO PAUL DORY AND FOUNDER OF THE HOME RUN INDEX FORECAST, THERE IS ONE MAJOR FACTOR FOR BASEBALL’S FLIGHT. >> TEMPERATURE TENDS TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE IMPORTANT. >> WHEN TEMPERATURES SPIKE, DON’T EXPECT TO STRIKE FOR FANS. THAT MEANS SUMMER GAMES MAY OFFER A
Heat and Home Runs: Why there are more home runs on hot days
Hot weather goes hand in hand with a higher number of home runs
Updated: 7:35 PM EDT Mar 21, 2026
There may be something to the term “hot streak.” A study published by the American Meteorological Society found that home runs are up to 46% more likely on hot days than on cold days.”When it’s hot out, you know, that’s just the best type of weather, because it’s just what baseball is meant to be played at,” said Yandy Diaz, designated hitter for the Tampa Bay Rays, through an interpreter.In 2025, over 1000 home runs were hit across the MBL in the month of August. Compared to a cooler month, like May, there were around 900 home runs.It all boils down to the density of the air.”The least dense air is the hot and humid weather,” said Paul Dorian, founder of the home run index forecast.Because the air molecules are spread out, the ball can go farther in the heat. This idea doesn’t necessarily change many players’ hitting techniques, but it could change strategy for those playing defensively.”I think there’s different areas where you do make some adjustments, whether it’s, you know, your outfield depth, on defense, and stuff like that,” said Kyle Hudson, the third base coach for the Boston Red Sox.Hot days usually come with bright, blue skies, but the brilliant Florida sun can paint harsh shadows that obscure the ball.”It can, you know, really look at the make the ball look different. So, for me personally, that’s the toughest to play,” said DÃaz.When the weather gets too intense, some MBL stadiums have retractable roofs.”It makes things a lot easier on us players, like we’re not sitting in the sun all day,” DÃaz said.Others, though, are not the biggest fans of playing indoors. The depth perception and the color of the ball can appear differently against a roof. “Tracking the ball is a little bit tougher,” said Hudson.When temperatures spike, don’t expect a strike. For fans, that means summer games may offer a better chance to see one get knocked out of the park. DOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest news and alerts on breaking news, weather, sports, entertainment, and more on your phone or tablet. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment and original programming on your TV.
FORT MYERS, Fla. —
There may be something to the term “hot streak.” A study published by the American Meteorological Society found that home runs are up to 46% more likely on hot days than on cold days.
“When it’s hot out, you know, that’s just the best type of weather, because it’s just what baseball is meant to be played at,” said Yandy Diaz, designated hitter for the Tampa Bay Rays, through an interpreter.
In 2025, over 1000 home runs were hit across the MBL in the month of August. Compared to a cooler month, like May, there were around 900 home runs.
It all boils down to the density of the air.
“The least dense air is the hot and humid weather,” said Paul Dorian, founder of the home run index forecast.
Because the air molecules are spread out, the ball can go farther in the heat. This idea doesn’t necessarily change many players’ hitting techniques, but it could change strategy for those playing defensively.
“I think there’s different areas where you do make some adjustments, whether it’s, you know, your outfield depth, on defense, and stuff like that,” said Kyle Hudson, the third base coach for the Boston Red Sox.
Hot days usually come with bright, blue skies, but the brilliant Florida sun can paint harsh shadows that obscure the ball.
“It can, you know, really look at the make the ball look different. So, for me personally, that’s the toughest to play,” said DÃaz.
When the weather gets too intense, some MBL stadiums have retractable roofs.
“It makes things a lot easier on us players, like we’re not sitting in the sun all day,” DÃaz said.
Others, though, are not the biggest fans of playing indoors. The depth perception and the color of the ball can appear differently against a roof.
“Tracking the ball is a little bit tougher,” said Hudson.
When temperatures spike, don’t expect a strike. For fans, that means summer games may offer a better chance to see one get knocked out of the park.
DOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest news and alerts on breaking news, weather, sports, entertainment, and more on your phone or tablet. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment and original programming on your TV.