Week 1: Starting Pitching
We made it! Opening Week is here! In just five short days, the Chaim Bloom (rebuild) era takes off as the Cardinals host the Tampa Bay Rays to the pomp and circumstance of Opening Day.
Since the 2026 season is officially upon us, I get to wrap up my six week series of breaking down the roster looking at each position group and comparing what we saw last season to the expectations for this year. One main conclusion I came up with was that this Cardinals team cannot be 10 games worse than they were last year, which PECOTA is projecting. As this series comes to a close, I intentionally left the bullpen for last because it is the most interchangeable part of any team, especially one that is in the early stages of a rebuild. Now, with a handful of days remaining until the season begins, the relief corps looks to be mostly settled so the comparison can actually begin.
The 2026 St. Louis Cardinals bullpen is that of a team with no plans to compete
Bullpen alignment has undergone a massive shift in recent years, with few teams actually operating with defined roles from 5th-9th innings and many organizations utilizing player options to keep relievers fresh. The Cardinals have shifted away from Ryan Helsley, who could only pitch one inning at a time or in save situations which hampered the pen, and now are set to employ a group of matchup-based relievers. For a team that is not expected to win more than 75 games, save situations are going to be few and far between anyway.
But, we do hear that it is important for young teams to “learn how to win”, so if the Cardinals do have a lead, it would be a good idea to do whatever they can to hold on for the win, especially since MLB tanking means way less when compared to the other major sports. With the way this Cardinals’ bullpen is built, though, those losses may come on accident anyway.
In the three seasons that the Cardinals have missed the playoffs, their bullpen ranks 11th in baseball in fWAR, but 8th in the NL. Unfortunately, the pitch-to-contact makeup from the starting pitching staff has made it way to the pen, as the arms over the last three seasons 25th in K/9 in an era when competitive teams overload the backend of their bullpens with pitchers who possess wipeout stuff. That setup worked to a point for the Cardinals, as their relievers gave up the second-fewest homers per game, but their staff ERA was 14th at a mediocre 3.96. Now, the Cardinals have shifted their overall pitching philosophy to include more high octane stuff throughout the organization and that could trickle into the bullpen. Because of the season expectations, the bullpen has been put on the back burner when looking at what the team has done to the roster.
After shipping off closer Ryan Helsley last season, the Cardinals cycled through a combination of JoJo Romero and Riley O’Brien combined for 14 of the team’s 16 saves over the last two months of the year. Romero’s contract status, the fact he is a lefty, and his performance in 2025 made him a likely trade candidate, but so far, Chaim Bloom has decided to hang onto him in the hopes that Romero’s trade value increases as the season goes along. Where Romero slots into bullpen will be interesting to see as he has the closing experience, but he is also the lefty who can be used in matchup-specific situations. This is where most teams would probably build from the backend first, knowing the strengths of their closer before building the rest of the bullpen, but since closing opportunities may be few and far between, Oli Marmol has some flexibility to leave guys in whatever role makes sense for that game.
It is because of this that I see the Cardinals opting to go with either O’Brien or Matt Svanson as the “closer” on paper, with the former getting the first crack at the job while Svanson fills the firefighter spot now vacated by Kyle Leahy. Even if it is a matchup based job, I would be surprised to see Romero taking late innings for the Cardinals after the All-Star break, so Marmol may wish to put someone in the 9th inning role now so the team does not have to adjust after Romero’s eventual departure. For now, it may be O’Brien’s job to lose, despite missing time with a calf injury to add to the long list of maladies he has had in his career. Along with his command issues and miniature track record of success, it is likely we will see multiple pitchers recording five or more saves. This gray area in the relief category caused an interesting set of final picks in the First Annual Preliminary Inaugural Brothers vs. Brothers fWAR Draft over on Redbird Rundown, as my brother and I took on the brothers from the podcast in our 2026 draft. The whole show is full of hot takes and analysis, so after you watch, let us know which team you’re riding with!
Svanson is penciled to fill an important, but less defined role in terms of when he’ll pitch, because of his effectiveness last season, as well as his minor league experience. His overall success may push him towards the firefighter role that could pitch any day and any inning as he takes over for Kyle Leahy. I am high on Svanson’s ability to be an impact reliever, although that impact may not be felt much in St. Louis this season. As the year progresses, the usage pattern will be interesting to look at. If Svanson starts working multiple innings at a time, the Cardinals could once again implement their newly found blueprint for the reliever to starter transition. Best case, though, would be for Svanson to settle into the bullpen because the minor league arms are continuing their progress towards the major leagues. Leahy’s shift to the rotation may be more about the current major-league ready personnel in terms of timing as opposed to Leahy’s ultimate starter ceiling.
After those three, feel free to insert any of the next five names in any order, or even with any other people because this bullpen is going to go through some changes. Like all bullpens in the 2020s, the middle inning guys are going to be shuffled around all season, replacing used or struggling arms with fresh ones, similar to how the Cardinals found out what they had in Svanson last year. Justin Bruihl figures to be the Opening Day garbage innings lefty after the rest of his competition was sent out of big league camp earlier in the week. Bruihl has a below average fastball but average enough secondary stuff to be effective in the John King role, but hopefully with more success than King had at the end of his tenure. Waiting in the minors for Bruihl to be overworked or ineffective is the combination of Bruce Zimmerman and Zack Thompson with lefty starters Quinn Mathews, Ixan Henderson, Brycen Mautz, and Pete Hansen potentially getting a look in the bullpen as a way to get their feet wet for the majors. Not a really inspiring group.
The fun continues with the projected bullpen of Ryne Stanek, George Soriano, Gordon Graceffo, and Rule 5 pick Matt Pushard rounding out the FanGraphs relief corps. Stanek could end up being more valuable than being in this paragraph with the others, but he is likely to be in the same camp as Dustin May and Romero and be shipped out of St. Louis before he has time to unpack for the summer. He very well could be an option to close games early in the season since he has some ninth inning experience, but that could just be done to increase his value for his next team. Soriano is a fun one as he was acquired in the strange trade that sent Andre Granillo to Washington for the out-of-options and already DFA’d Soriano. So far this spring, the hard throwing Soriano has not allowed a run in six innings while striking out eight batters without allowing a walk. The command has always been a question for Soriano, so if he can cut his average walk rate in half in 2026, he could be valuable for this iteration of Cardinals.
As for Graceffo, the former starting pitching prospect has been somewhat permanently shifted to the bullpen. He has yet to flourish in either role with a 6.04 ERA in 28 big league games (27 as a reliever) compared to a 3.94 ERA in the minors with 75 of his 109 appearances coming as a starter. Graceffo, who pitched for Italy in the WBC, has been with the Cardinals organization since 2021 and his progress has leveled out, but the consistent reliever role might allow Graceffo to find what works for him in short stints rather than longer outings. He has just one option season remaining and it is very possible that this year will be the final time he can be shuttled up and down to the minors, so Graceffo will need to find a bullpen role that best fits his profile. Because of his starting experience, he may be a long relief option, but the Cardinals have not stretched him out to this point, although that could be due to his WBC absence.
Finally, that brings Matt Pushard as the last pitcher to crack the roster. His status as a Rule 5 choice gives him an upper hand in at least heading north with the team, but we might be putting more weight into the punishment that comes with offering a drafted player back to their organization. If Pushard is offered back to the Marlins, Miami could take him back for a major league spot and $50,000 or decline the offer, allowing the Cardinals to treat Pushard as a regular player and option him to Memphis and clear up a 40-man spot. With other teams around the league also trying to lock in their Opening Day roster, now would be as good a time as any to try to sneak him back through the process. To his credit, though, Pushard has held his own through six spring games, striking out seven in 5.2 innings, but has allowed two walks and two homers.
If the Cardinals decide that Nelson Velazquez has earned a job on the Opening Day roster with his great spring, Pushard could be the odd man out since the outfielder would need a 40-man spot. Losing $50,000 is a low price to pay for someone like Velazquez who, even if he is a flash in the pan, would be more valuable than a middle inning reliever.
Waiting behind these options are Chris Roycroft, who Oli Marmol has been high on, and former Rule 5er Ryan Fernandez. Behind them sits Tink Hence. I am still holding out hope and expectation that Hence has big league stuff and his shift towards the bullpen could finally get him closer to St. Louis.
Overall, the bullpen probably will not have many memorable stories from the 2026 season outside of the return that JoJo Romero received. Maybe we will see Riley O’Brien hone in his electric stuff and grab the closer job with Matt Svanson becoming a valuable late-inning piece. Or, we will see a never ending carousel of cheap arms as the Cardinals limp to the 2027 offseason. No matter how it pans out, we get to watch meaningful baseball this week.
I had newest member of the VEB writing crew and Redbird Rundown co-host Matt Smith and brother Jonathan on Cardinals on My Time. They took on my brother and me in an fWAR prediction draft… with some twists!Speaking of my brother, Jim came out with yet another Random Cardinal of the Week. On Friday, he featured a record-setting All-Star.Redbird Rundown goes live at 6pm tonight with Aidan Gray from Redbirds on the Arch. We discussed the players who will have the biggest impact on the season.Final chance to join our TICKET GIVEAWAY! If you join our Patreon for $1, you will be entered into a drawing for 2 Coca-Cola tickets to the May 4 game against the Brewers!