We are coming to the end of spring training, and while most of the Red Sox Opening Day roster is set in stone, there are a handful of decisions remaining before the club heads out to Cincinnati.
So before Alex Cora makes his final decisions, here is our last crack at projecting the Red Sox’s 26-man roster.
Starting rotation
MLB: Garrett Crochet (L), Ranger Suarez (L), Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo
MiLB depth: Connelly Early (L), Payton Tolle (L), Tyler Uberstine, Jake Bennett (L)
15-day IL: Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval (L); 60-day IL: Tanner Houck
No changes here over the final two weeks of camp. The competition for the last rotation spot has been hard fought and all three of the primary contenders have pitched great, but Johan Oviedo should emerge as the victor.
All else being equal, Oviedo has a more established track record than Connelly Early and Payton Tolle, who have combined for 11 appearances and 35 2/3 innings in their MLB careers. Both rookies have actually pitched more innings in the majors than they have in Triple-A, a product of their rapid rise through the system and the big league club’s desperate need for starting pitching down the stretch last season.
While Oviedo has minor league options remaining too and could theoretically be sent to Triple-A if necessary, Early and Tolle are at a stage in their careers where some additional seasoning in Worcester could help.
Alex Cora did recently open the door to the possibility that one of the runner-ups could also make the team as a long reliever, especially with Ranger Suarez slightly behind in his ramp-up due to his low usage in the World Baseball Classic. Maybe in that case Early or Tolle could still travel with the team to Cincinnati, but that would probably be a temporary arrangement until Kutter Crawford or Patrick Sandoval are ready to go by mid-April.
The Red Sox recently brought in left-hander Danny Coulombe to fortify their bullpen. (AP Photo/Phil Long)
Bullpen
MLB: Aroldis Chapman (L), Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, Jovani Moran (L), Danny Coulombe (L), Ryan Watson
MiLB: Tommy Kahnle, Tyler Samaniego (L)
The Red Sox finally brought in some bullpen reinforcements midway through camp, signing veteran left-hander Danny Coulombe on a one-year big league deal and adding right-hander Tommy Kahnle on a minor league deal with an invite to MLB camp.
With those two on board, the Red Sox now have some actual decisions to make with the bullpen.
The top seven spots are effectively locked in, with Aroldis Chapman serving as the closer, Garrett Whitlock as the top set-up man and Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly and lefties Jovani Moran and Coulombe rounding out the group. That leaves one spot, and there are a number of ways the Red Sox could go.
One possibility is Early or Tolle could get the eighth spot, and another is the club could sign a late roster cut from another organization to serve as a long man similar to Chase Anderson in 2024. But setting those aside and looking at the current reliever group, I think the most likely outcome is Ryan Watson makes the team, if nothing else to maximize the club’s roster flexibility.
Kahnle, despite his status as a 12-year MLB veteran, can be stashed in Triple-A to start the season. Same goes for rookie left-hander Tyler Samaniego, who can be optioned to Worcester. But as a Rule 5 pick Watson must spend the entire season on Boston’s active roster or be offered back to the San Francisco Giants, so by keeping him for Opening Day the Red Sox can kick the can down the road and avoid potentially losing an arm they liked enough to trade for after he was taken in the Rule 5 Draft before they had a chance to pick him themselves.
Catcher
MLB: Carlos Narvaez, Connor Wong
MiLB depth: Mickey Gasper, Matt Thaiss
While there has been some noise recently that the Red Sox could be open to the possibility of considering other candidates for the backup catcher job, I see no reason to believe Connor Wong won’t be the one backing up Carlos Narvaez on Opening Day.
Red Sox infielder Marcelo Mayer appears to have won the starting second base job. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Infielders
MLB: Willson Contreras (1B), Marcelo Mayer (2B), Trevor Story (SS), Caleb Durbin (3B), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Util.)
MiLB depth: Andruw Monasterio, Nick Sogard, Tsung-Che Cheng, Gasper
15-day IL: Triston Casas, Anthony Seigler; 60-day IL: Romy Gonzalez; MiLB IL: Brendan Rodgers
The starting infield is effectively set. Cora recently announced that Caleb Durbin will be the club’s starting third baseman, and Saturday he finally confirmed that Marcelo Mayer has won the second base job as well. Those two will take the field alongside first baseman Willson Contreras and shortstop Trevor Story to form what should on paper be the club’s best defensive infield in years.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a lock to make the big league team as well, but with Masataka Yoshida expected to slot into a bench role amid a crowded outfield picture, that leaves only one bench spot remaining.
That job will go to either Nate Eaton or Andruw Monasterio.
This is a tricky one to predict. On one hand, it would make sense for the Red Sox to have a right-handed hitting outfielder available on the roster. Four of the club’s five outfielders bat lefty, so Eaton could provide some of what Rob Refsnyder provided while also giving the Red Sox a late-inning pinch runner and the ability to play some infield as well.
The trouble is Eaton has only ever played third base as an infielder in the majors, so while Kiner-Falefa will already give the Red Sox a back-up at every infield position, Monasterio can provide additional flexibility there despite his only having ever played three MLB games in the outfield.
Usually a good way to tell who ranks where on the depth chart during the spring is by who plays primarily at home with the projected starters and who tends to play mostly on the road with guys ticketed for the minors, but that system breaks down here as well. Since Eaton returned from the World Baseball Classic on March 13 he has gotten four starts at home with the first unit, but that’s because several outfielders were away at the tournament for longer, including Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony all the way to the final.
With a full house on Friday and most of the starters in the lineup, Eaton and Monasterio both came off the bench.
One possibility that can’t be ruled out is the Red Sox could trade Yoshida, who has played great since last September but who has become an awkward roster fit. That would open up space for both Eaton and Yoshida, but short of something dramatic like that, I’m leaning towards Eaton for Opening Day, though it could easily go Monasterio’s way too.
Outfielders
MLB: Roman Anthony (LF), Ceddanne Rafaela (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), Jarren Duran (OF), Masataka Yoshida (OF/DH), Nate Eaton (Util.)
MiLB depth: Kristian Campbell, Braiden Ward
Cora is going to have his work cut out piecing together this puzzle.
The Red Sox manager has made it clear he wants to play Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu every day in order to best capitalize on their Gold Glove defense. Roman Anthony and Jarren Duran will presumably rotate between left field and designated hitter, with Yoshida filling in occasionally on days one of the other four outfielders needs some rest.
Eaton, meanwhile, would function primarily as a late-inning pinch hitter or runner who might occasionally start against left-handers.
This is a pretty unwieldy situation, and while Craig Breslow has frequently said there’s no such thing as having too many good players, it’s not ideal having some of those good players stuck in roles that don’t maximize their talents.
At full health Yoshida has shown he can be a capable big league hitter. He was arguably Boston’s best bat down the stretch in September and in the playoffs against the Yankees, and he was terrific in the World Baseball Classic for Team Japan. But he’s not better than Anthony or Duran, and he’s also not suited for a bench role, where you ideally want players with positional versatility, speed and defense, tools Yoshida does not possess.
If the Red Sox can’t assemble a roster that includes a bench outfielder with those abilities, that’s a problem, so even if Yoshida starts the season on the Opening Day roster, it will be interesting to see how the roster evolves and if Eaton, Kristian Campbell or even spring training sensation Braiden Ward eventually factors into the equation.