Wait, you want more? How about in bold?
Ok, I guess I should probably show my working a little bit. So what I did was gather up the D-backs’ spring training results for each season since 2003 (which is where ESPN’s statistics begin), with the exception of 2020 – when both spring training and the regular season were kinda half-assed. I took the win percentage of the team that spring (ties, which are a thing in the Cactus League, were discarded) and plotted it against the regular season record for the same year. If there was any kind of correlation, you’d expect there to be a visible line. Here’s what the graph actually looks like:
Yeah, I’m not really seeing it, unless I squint particularly hard. Far and away the best spring record was in 2016, when the Diamondbacks went 24-8, the best spring record in the majors by 2.5 games. If you don’t remember much else about the 2016 season, there’s good reason for that. Conversely, one of the worst springs came in 2011, when Arizona went 12-25, the lowest win percentage in the Cactus League. But that ended up being the last time the team won the division, doing so by a comfortable eight-game margin. All told, the correlation between spring and regular season records is .105 – pretty weak.
That figure is roughly in line with an earlier and broader study, carried out in 2002. It concluded, “The correlation between spring records and regular season records is .15… For comparison, the correlation between last year’s regular season record and this year’s regular season record during the same period is a much stronger .52.” In other words, if you want to see how a team is going to do this year, looking at how they did last year is going to be a far better predictor, than what they are doing in spring. There are a lot of reasons for this, mostly connected to the fact that teams are simply not trying their utmost to win Cactus League games.
We see this in line-ups which become a game of “Who’s he?” after the fifth inning. In pitchers who enter a game more interested in refining a particular pitch – or perhaps, trying out a new one – than getting people out. In outfielders not putting their bodies on the line to make preseason plays which could end up in injury. In schedules which don’t reflect the regular season – this spring, the D-backs play the White Sox as often as any NL West opponent. In veterans who, let’s be honest, aren’t fighting for a roster spot, know exactly what they need to do to be ready, and are understandably disinclined to do any more.
There is an argument to be made that there is a connection, but it’s diluted by time. After all, the Opening Day roster for the D-backs in 2025, was radically different from the one which took the field after the trade deadline. [As a rough check, of the fourteen players to appear in the D-backs’ August 1 game against the Athletics, only half were on the Opening Day roster] So, let’s plot Arizona’s spring training record against what the team does at the very start of the season, with their record through the end of April that season. Maybe that will show a greater degree of correlation?
…or not. “Not” works too. Indeed, and slightly weirdly, there is actually less correlation, with a figure of just .007. It does vary. Last year, the numbers were actually fairly close: 17-14 in spring, then 16-14 through the end of April. But over three consecutive seasons either side of COVID, from 2018 through 2021, there was a gap of more than 150 points in the win percentages. The all-time gap, however, belongs to 2008, at a whopping 314 points. The Diamondbacks went an underwhelming 8-12 in spring, then roared out of the gate with a 20-8 record, before… Yeah, it kinda was downhill for them thereafter.
It does all average out over time. The composite record from 2003-25 (again, excluding 2020) comes in at a win percentage of .495, which sits almost exactly between the team’s record through April (.510) and their mark across all regular season games (.478) over the same period. The D-backs have generally been… well, mediocre over the past twenty-plus years and that is reflected in general mediocrity before Opening Day. Might be interesting to see whether or not that applies to, say, the Dodgers: are they as good in spring as they have been during the regular season? But, meh. It’s the Dodgers, so who cares?
Below is the actual data used in the graphs. Told you I’d show my working. 🙂