Per MLB.com’s own glossary, xwOBA is described as a metric “formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.”

“xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation.”

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It’s an expected stat, meaning that it’s based more on process than actual outcome, but it’s a measure of the quality of offense generated by batters these days. It’s tracking how hard you hit it, whether it’s a liner or grounder, and how fast the player who hit the ball takes off – all things that are pretty vital to just how effective a team’s overall offense should be over a large enough sample to drown out any noise.

During the 2025 MLB season, the Cincinnati Reds posted a collective team xwOBA of .300. And while that may be a round number that makes you think “huh, that’s average,” in this case it decidedly is not. That .300 xwOBA ranked 28th among the 30 MLB clubs last year, 3rd worst ahead of only the punchless Cleveland Guardians and, yes, the woeful Colorado Rockies.

The 2025 Reds offense was mediocre in a number of metrics beyond that one, even though it’s a pretty straightforward indicator of how lacking their lineup truly was. They ranked just 24th overall in wRC+, 24th in ISO, 28th in Statcast’s Hard Hit %, and dead last in EV90, per FanGraphs, though still managed to rank 7th in BABIP (.298) somehow.

In other words, they didn’t hit the ball very hard, very well, or even end up getting lucky. It was an offense that lacked real thump for the season and was ultimately their downfall next to their pretty spectacular set of starting pitchers.

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The question today, though, is whether they’ve done enough to make that significantly better in 2026.

They’ll have a fully healthy Elly De La Cruz again, which will help tremendously. They brought in Eugenio Suárez in free agency to add some legitimate thump to the lineup, and that, too, should boost things. Sal Stewart has all the hallmarks of an offensive powerhouse in the makings, and adding his bat to this group for a full season will hopefully skew it in a positive direction.

They’ll also be getting a full season out of Ke’Bryan Hayes, though. The former Pittsburgh Pirates 3B came over at the trade deadline, and out of the 145 MLB hitters who qualified with enough PA last season, he ranked 145th in xwOBA at just .282. Staring at the bottom of that leaderboard will also, sadly, let you see Matt Mclain (.291, 5th worst), Spencer Steer (.293, 7th worst), and old friend Gavin Lux (.299, tied for 9th worst), a pretty clear indication that either Cincinnati’s overriding philosophy was outright trash or a number of players who are poised to play key parts in 2026 simply weren’t up to par at all last season.

I like to think this offense will be improved from last year, but it’s hardly an overwhelming sentiment the deeper into it I look.

What do you think? Will the 2026 Cincinnati Reds swing the bats with more force and effect than they did just last year?