It’s baseball prediction season. This should be said it in a monotone, then followed with a few seconds of uncomfortable silence. Nobody likes baseball prediction season. It’s everyone lining up to be wrong together, then getting yelled at because they’re not the right kind of wrong.
You should be extra-vigilant right before the season starts, too, because this is the season for bold predictions, although the definition of “bold” definitely depends on who’s doing the defining. You might get the promise of a bold prediction, only to have it be the San Francisco Giants making or missing the postseason. That is not a bold prediction. That is one of two realistic baseball scenarios.
Not that you should want predictions that are actually bold. That’s just picking something super obscure that you’re likely to be wrong about. I picked Bailey Ober to win the American League Cy Young before one season, and I’m not 100-percent sure I know what hand he throws with. Was just trying to be bold.
And if you aren’t excited about bold predictions or realistic predictions, what are you left with? Cynical predictions, and those are the silliest of all. Imagine taking the time to be wrong about baseball and then being a jerk about it. Seems like a poor allocation of one’s finite energy reserves.
Anyway, here are all three: bold, realistic and cynical predictions for the Giants 2026 season. The only guarantee is they’ll mostly be wrong. Because I can’t lie anymore. I could never quit you, predictions. I’m sorry I was so nasty up there. I didn’t mean any of it.
Bold prediction No. 1: Keaton Winn is the unquestioned setup man by the end of the season
I’m not an advanced baseball mind. Sometimes, I can be downright stubborn. Dumb, even. And when I watch Keaton Winn pitch, he lights up that part of my scouting brain. Fastball fast enough. Splitter go foomp. When a pitcher has both, I will overrate him every single time. Maybe it’s residue from growing up with the Roger Craig-era Giants, but it’s fun to lean into.
Keaton Winn is ready for an important role in the Giants’ remade bullpen. (Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)
It’s a combination that’s worked for Giants starters recently. If you’re tired of reading Kevin Gausman references, I’m tired of writing them, so let’s switch it up and remember how effective Alex Cobb was at his best. He gave the Giants 301 innings of rock-solid pitching. So you can understand the temptation to keep Winn starting, even if it’s in Triple-A Sacramento.
The fast-fastball, disappearing-splitter combo can thrive in the bullpen, though, and the Giants will have a need. Winn was one of the Giants’ more promising young pitchers before injuries got in the way, and every year, someone with his profile becomes a bullpen weapon.
Reasonable prediction in response: Someone in the bullpen will emerge as a trusted bullpen weapon
This was a theme of my “rookies to watch” article, that a rookie will emerge in the bullpen, at some point, even if it’s in September. Someone will emerge, and you’ll spend the offseason expecting them to be an important part of the 2027 bullpen. One second, Ryan Walker is a 26-year-old reliever in Double A, and the next he’s getting his first major-league save. Stories like that happen all the time.
Now expand the idea to include the entire bullpen. Someone will emerge. Maybe it’ll be Ryan Borucki, a lefty sink-’n’-command specialist the Giants signed to a major-league deal this weekend, or maybe someone like Michael Fulmer will make the roster and take off. Anyone from the field is a viable contender once the Opening Day roster is set. Someone will “git gud,” as the kids say.
Cynical prediction in response: It will take too long to figure all of this out
A fun, new rookie reliever in August isn’t going to erase blown leads in April. And even if there’s a veteran who emerges, it might be in the shadow of other veterans who spend the first couple months of the season pitching their way off the roster. The Giants may eventually achieve bullpen stability, but it could take many months (and many pitchers) to find.
Bold prediction No. 2: Luis Matos will establish himself as an everyday player
Like the Winn prediction above, apparently I’m defining bold predictions as “being suspiciously high on a player that the rest of baseball isn’t that excited about.” Fair enough, but I was high enough on Matos to devote an entire article on him before the spring started, and he rewarded that faith with a strong spring (.767 OPS, three strikeouts in 50 AB), albeit one that finished a lot colder than it started.
This is just a doubling down on that idea, even though Matos could be traded (or designated for assignment) by the time this article is published.
Reasonable prediction in response: The Giants will get league-average production from the final lineup spot
Matos is a stand-in for the ninth lineup spot up there. The infield is set, and you know who’s catching. Jung Hoo Lee and Harrison Bader are locks in the outfield, and the Giants haven’t said how often they’re planning to use Heliot Ramos as a DH. Matos is the ninth guy, playing (or not playing) wherever the Giants need him.
And if he’s not even on the Opening Day roster, a reasonable prediction is that the Giants could still do OK here with a combination of Jerár Encarnación, Casey Schmitt, Bryce Eldridge, Christian Koss … you know, the field again. Except some of them very explicitly won’t be in the field again. It’s complicated.
The best-case scenario is for Eldridge to keep forcing the issue, like he did against the actual Giants on Sunday in the scrimmage against the River Cats. The video is fun, but somehow even the data visualization on it sings:
Here’s a guess, though, that whether it’s an outfielder, infielder or DH who is doing most of the league-averageness, the last lineup spot won’t be an absolute sinkhole.
Cynical prediction in response: The last lineup spot will be an absolute sinkhole
If they’re contending, this means they trade for the Casey McGehee or Ryan Garko of 2026. You will have opinions.
If they’re not contending, this will be the easiest place to point fingers. There was room for another impact bat. Except, if they’re not contending, it’s unlikely that one hitter would have made the difference. So this carousel of below-average hitters will mostly just annoy you as a symbol of how the larger project failed.
I like the reasonable prediction much better.
Bold prediction No. 3: The hitting prospect who makes the biggest impact this season is (relatively unknown prospect)
Oh, I’ll pick a specific player, but I’m leaving it open so that you can play along. This is the fun kind of bold prediction. You’re giving a player a major-league career. What an honor.
My pick is Nate Furman, a second baseman who finished the season in Double A and hit .167 this spring. That doesn’t scream future All-Star, much less member of the 2026 Giants, but he’s a high-contact, keen-eyed second baseman with a left-handed bat on a team that might need one of those, depending on how Luis Arraez’s defensive renaissance goes.
Reasonable prediction in response: Bryce Eldridge hits a few dingers, and it’s fun
Optioning Eldridge was the correct move, and the only real surprise is that people were surprised by it. He’s so young, and there’s still plenty to work on. There are a hundred ways to mess him up by rushing him to the majors, and relatively few ways to mess him up by keeping him on the standard path.
Note that this reasonable prediction doesn’t suggest that Eldridge has a .900 OPS and gets MVP votes. No, we’re mostly focused on the dingers here. They might come with an OPS in the .600s, which would suggest some deeper problems, but the dingers would still be plenty of fun. A reasonable target would be something like his ZiPS projection: .238/.302/.422, with 20 homers. That wouldn’t be an earth-shattering line, but you’d watch more Giants games. A lot of people would.
Cynical prediction in response: Nobody emerges because it’s hard to be a prospect (and there just aren’t a lot of openings)
If someone, even Eldridge, establishes himself, it’ll be similar to what Christian Koss did last season. There will be bumps and growing pains, but by the end of the season, you’ll be pretty sure you’re looking at a major leaguer. The Giants might agree.
This sounds boring because it is boring, and most prospects don’t come up, win Rookie of the Year, then the World Series, then the MVP, then retire after one of their best seasons, only to end up running the whole danged team. That’s because nobody does that. Could you even imagine?
No, this isn’t a team that’s built to run on rookie hitters, so the ones you’ll see — like Jesús Rodríguez, sooner rather than later — will get sporadic playing time unless they’re hot … which isn’t easy with sporadic playing time.
My bold predictions? Keaton Winn, Luis Matos and Nate Furman have fantastic years, and then Giants fans all get coupons for free Ghirardelli sundaes. The reasonable predictions aren’t nearly as fun, but they’re practical, and the cynical predictions are for the haters who don’t even go here.
All we know is they’ll all be wrong. Welcome to another baseball season.