Fangraphs says the Padres will win just over 79 games and will open the season with a 21.6% shot at making the postseason. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the Padres pegged for 81.1 wins. Ceasars is setting the over/under at 83.5 wins.

So a simulation of the Padres’ 2026 season via “MLB The Show 26” amounting to an 82-win effort that misses a wild-card spot by two games makes sense.

At least as the Padres are presently constructed.

Which is what nobody can predict:

What will Padres baseball ops chief do to push his team into the postseason a third straight year, especially if he gets a cash boost from a new owner looking to make a splash with the fanbase?

Of course, gamers on PlayStation, Xbox and Nintendo Switch can take matters into their own hands in franchise mode if they believe they need more punch.

And they do based on a simulation run by The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will win a third Gold Glove in right field and is an All-Star reserve alongside Manny Machado but 17 home runs for Tatis is well on the light side of the scale even if paired with 31 steals and an .893 OPS. Machado leads the team with 28 homers in his Age 33 season and Jackson Merrill rebounds with a 25-homer season, but that duo both finish with an OPS just south of .800 and the supporting cast — from an injury-plagued year from Ramón Laureano (a .562 OPS in 58 games) to inconsistency from newcomer Nick Castellanos (17 homers but a .709 OPS) to more lack of production from catchers (Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano combine for 11 homers) — is not enough to make up for shortcomings on the mound.

Rather on the mound to start games as Mason Miller and Jason Adam are All-Stars and Miller, Adam, Adrián Morejón and Jeremiah Estrada all have sub-3.00 ERAs out of the bullpen.

A 10-win season (3.17 ERA) from Nick Pivetta would be both a good season and step back from last year’s breakout. Michael King also winning 10 games while throwing 150 innings (3.97 ERA) also falls short of what the Padres need, while a Joe Musgrove starting the season on the injured list is behind the eight-ball if he’s going to live up to MLB The Show’s projection of a 3.90 ERA over 143 innings.

Griffin Canning turns in solid work (140 innings, 4.41 ERA), but Randy Vásquez (4.95 ERA) does not take an expected step forward, Germán Márquez (4.88 ERA) still looks like he’s pitching half his games at Coors Field and an injured Walker Buehler is a non-factor all year.

It’s enough for the Padres to remain in wild-card contention all season, but they are 15½ games behind the Dodgers at the All-Star break and begging for Preller to make a move at the trade deadline.

So maybe that’s the real takeaway from an “MLB The Show” simulation of the season, as well as the rest of the projections and odds making the rounds as opening day approaches.

The Padres are good enough to contend.

What happens the rest of the summer depends on what new owners allow Preller to do.