Heading into the 2026 MLB season, Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle are now co-favorites to win the American League Rookie of the Year award.
As of this writing, they both are +400 to win the award via the latest MLB Rookie of the Year odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. That translates to an implied probability of 20%.
Okamoto began with +500 odds in this market when he signed a four-year, $60 million contract with the Blue Jays in January. Okamoto, 29, is making the leap to MLB after 11 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.
McGonigle started at +600, but he’s been the biggest liability in the market this preseason. At BetMGM, he has received 19% of bets and 21.8% of the handle.
Before the latest shuffle at the top of the board, Toronto pitcher Trey Yesavage had been the front-runner since the market was released. Yesavage, who opened at +200, is now +1000 after starting the year on the injured list.
ATC, a composite projection system available at FanGraphs, has Yesavage finishing with a fWAR of 1.6 and recording 121 strikeouts over 108 1/3 innings. The same system has Okamoto posting a fWAR of 2.3, finishing with 22 home runs and 71 RBIS in 126 games.
McGonigle, meanwhile, is projected for a fWAR of 2.7 with 52 RBIs and 14 homers in 108 games.
In the days leading up to the season, there are nine players listed better than 20/1 in the AL Rookie of the Year market. The National League only has four such players.
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