A few weeks ago, I raised awareness of the fact the league was running wild this spring and promised to revisit the topic as camps wrapped up before the regular season kicked off. That is what I am doing with this week’s installment.

I know I’m not the only one who adheres to the original rules which dictated drafting the weekend after Opening Day, as I have a draft on Opening Day and another one on Sunday, making this information actionable for myself, my leaguemates who subscribe here, and anyone else who is drafting this weekend. It is also actionable for everyone else who has wrapped up their drafts this season and must now plan on how to attack this particular scoring category. If this spring is any indication of how the regular season will play out, buckle up.

Halfway through spring games, the league was attempting 2.58 steals per contest, which was the highest rate since the league changed the rules on steals in 2023. It is worth remembering that..

…we have seen a strong correlation between how frequently the league runs in March and how frequently the league runs during the regular season. That correlation drops from 0.82 to 0.5 when looking at a per-team basis and absolutely falls apart at the individual player level.

I look at attempts as a formula of ((SB+CS)/(Total Games/2)) for the league looking to see how many successful or failed attempts are happening per contest. The table below shows the rate for

A few weeks ago, I raised awareness of the fact the league was running wild this spring and promised to revisit the topic as camps wrapped up before the regular season kicked off. That is what I am doing with this week’s installment.

I know I’m not the only one who adheres to the original rules which dictated drafting the weekend after Opening Day, as I have a draft on Opening Day and another one on Sunday, making this information actionable for myself, my leaguemates who subscribe here, and anyone else who is drafting this weekend. It is also actionable for everyone else who has wrapped up their drafts this season and must now plan on how to attack this particular scoring category. If this spring is any indication of how the regular season will play out, buckle up.

Halfway through spring games, the league was attempting 2.58 steals per contest, which was the highest rate since the league changed the rules on steals in 2023. It is worth remembering that..

…we have seen a strong correlation between how frequently the league runs in March and how frequently the league runs during the regular season. That correlation drops from 0.82 to 0.5 when looking at a per-team basis and absolutely falls apart at the individual player level.

I look at attempts as a formula of ((SB+CS)/(Total Games/2)) for the league looking to see how many successful or failed attempts are happening per contest. The table below shows the rate for the seasons since 2021:

YEAR

SB FREQUENCY

2021

1.64

2022

1.54

2023 (new rules)

2.18

2024

2.25

2025

2.31

2026

2.58

The numbers after the conclusion of spring games on March 22 saw the league finish at 2.56 attempts per contest. The high rate held up even as players made their way back from the amazing World Baseball Classic, meaning the rate increased nearly 11 percent from last spring. 18 of 30 teams ran more frequently in 2026 spring games than 2025 spring games, with both colors of Sox doing the heavy lifting for the league:

TEAM

G

SB

CS

Attempts

2026 per game rate

2025 per game rate

Change

Chicago White Sox

32

44

16

60

1.88

0.81

133%

Boston Red Sox

28

53

13

66

2.36

1.07

121%

Miami Marlins

27

45

10

55

2.04

1.13

80%

Houston Astros

28

41

10

51

1.82

1.03

76%

Colorado Rockies

29

45

22

67

2.31

1.39

66%

Los Angeles Angels

31

39

10

49

1.58

0.97

63%

Atlanta Braves

29

28

9

37

1.28

0.81

58%

Athletics

31

26

6

32

1.03

0.78

32%

Philadelphia Phillies

29

22

6

28

0.97

0.73

32%

Texas Rangers

28

24

7

31

1.11

0.84

31%

Minnesota Twins

29

32

6

38

1.31

1.00

31%

Tampa Bay Rays

29

33

9

42

1.45

1.17

24%

Los Angeles Dodgers

29

24

1

25

0.86

0.70

24%

San Francisco Giants

29

29

8

37

1.28

1.03

24%

Toronto Blue Jays

28

19

5

24

0.86

0.72

18%

New York Mets

27

18

3

21

0.78

0.68

15%

San Diego Padres

31

28

7

35

1.13

1.03

9%

St. Louis Cardinals

28

23

6

29

1.04

1.00

4%

The White Sox ran frequently as a team, and it’s notable that both Luisangel Acuna as well as Korey Lee each attempted at least five steals, successfully converting four of them. Lee is going to be pressed into early duty with Kyle Teel on the mend from his hamstring injury, so a handful of steals would be ideal since he doesn’t offer much else at the plate. Conversely, Colson Montgomery did not even attempt a steal in his 13 times on base, which included 10 singles and three walks.

One third of Boston’s 66 attempts came from Braiden Ward, who is opening the season in Triple-A. Most of Boston’s speedster regulars were on WBC duty, so we don’t have a good read on the individual players, but Alex Cora was certainly committed to pushing the running game this spring, and the change from Alex Bregman to Caleb Durbin at third base should only help the roster stay in motion in the regular season. Boston was third in the American League with 139 steals and sixth overall, so it would take some serious aggressiveness for them to move much higher as a team.

The 12 teams who showed a decline from last spring are below, but the best news might be the Nationals, who remain in line with where Dave Martinez had the club last spring. Yes, I’m talking to all you Nasim Nunez fans:

TEAM

G

SB

CS

Attempts

2026 per game rate

2025 per game rate

Change

Cincinnati Reds

29

18

5

23

0.79

1.47

-46%

Pittsburgh Pirates

30

26

2

28

0.93

1.57

-40%

Arizona Diamondbacks

29

16

5

21

0.72

1.21

-40%

Detroit Tigers

26

12

2

14

0.54

0.77

-30%

Kansas City Royals

29

31

10

41

1.41

2.03

-30%

Baltimore Orioles

29

21

5

26

0.90

1.21

-26%

Chicago Cubs

30

32

4

36

1.20

1.50

-20%

Milwaukee Brewers

28

43

8

51

1.82

2.26

-19%

New York Yankees

30

29

8

37

1.23

1.48

-17%

Seattle Mariners

31

26

5

31

1.00

1.19

-16%

Cleveland Guardians

29

24

5

29

1.00

1.16

-14%

Washington Nationals

28

37

12

49

1.75

1.77

-1%

 Terry Francona might be a human restrictor plate on Elly De La Cruz because the formerly led-footed manager has gotten cautious recently. Meanwhile, Detroit might be playing Earl Weaver ball this season and waiting for the three-run home run rather than trying to steal bases as they have been the most passive team on the basepaths this spring. 

Finally, the new managers this season have for the most part outpaced their predecessors, save for Craig Albernaz and his softball roster in Baltimore: 

TEAM

G

SB

CS

Attempts

2026 per game rate

2025 per game rate

Change

Colorado Rockies

29

45

22

67

2.31

1.39

66%

Los Angeles Angels

31

39

10

49

1.58

0.97

63%

Atlanta Braves

29

28

9

37

1.28

0.81

58%

Texas Rangers

28

24

7

31

1.11

0.84

31%

Minnesota Twins

29

32

6

38

1.31

1.00

31%

San Francisco Giants

29

29

8

37

1.28

1.03

24%

San Diego Padres

31

28

7

35

1.13

1.03

9%

Washington Nationals

28

37

12

49

1.75

1.77

-1%

Baltimore Orioles

29

21

5

26

0.90

1.21

-26%

I feel confident in stating we will see steals surge again after the stolen base totals fell by nearly five percent from 2024. We could very well exceed the record set in 2024 based off the tea leaves we have seen this spring. I am particularly buoyed by the fact the new managers have been particularly aggressive so far.

The regular season is finally here, and I could not be happier to have it back. Best of luck this season with your leagues, unless we’re in one together!